Saints Week-16 Playoff Scenarios
Unbelievably, the New Orleans Saints still have a chance, albeit slim, to qualify for the playoffs as they enter Week 16. Thanks to an abysmal NFC South, the 5-9 Saints sit tied for second place in the division after a 21-18 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Current NFC South Standings:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)
- Carolina Panthers (5-9)
- New Orleans Saints (5-9)
- Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
New Orleans was the only team in the division to win this past weekend. While their chances for a wild-card berth are gone, the Saints still harbor hope to pull out the division title with some help.
This is the remaining schedule for New Orleans:
- at Cleveland Browns (6-8)
- at Philadelphia Eagles (13-1)
- vs. Carolina Panthers (5-9)
There are actually two fairly realistic scenarios for the Saints to win the NFC South.
Scenario #1
1. Saints win their remaining three games
2. Tampa Bay must lose at least two of their remaining three games
If this happens, New Orleans would take the NFC South with an 8-9 record, while Tampa Bay and Carolina would finish no better than 7-10.
Scenario #2
1. Saints can lose once to Cleveland OR Philadelphia, but must beat Carolina and go 2-1 over their last three contests.
2. Tampa Bay must lose all of their last three games (at Arizona, vs. Carolina, and at Atlanta).
3. Carolina must lose to the Lions in Week 16 and to New Orleans in Week 18, but beat Tampa Bay in Week 17.
4. Atlanta must lose one of their next two games, either to the Ravens in Week 16 or Cardinals in Week 17, and beat Tampa Bay in Week 18.
The Saints would finish with a 7-10 record in this turn of events, but could still take the division with a lot of unlikely help. In this scenario, the Buccaneers and Panthers would wind up 6-11 and Falcons finish no better than 7-10.
New Orleans would be eliminated with a loss to Cleveland on Sunday, combined with a win by either Tampa Bay or Carolina.
The Saints would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Tampa Bay by virtue of the Buccaneers season sweep against them. Therefore, New Orleans must finish a game ahead of Tampa Bay in the standings.
By contrast, the Saints hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta because they swept the Falcons. New Orleans lost at Carolina in Week 3, but can split the season series with a home win over the Panthers in the season finale.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) rushes against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
A four-way or three-way tie would also leave the Saints on the outside looking in. New Orleans currently has a 4-6 conference record, including 2-3 in the division, with two NFC games remaining. They'd lose out in any multiple team tiebreaker that involves the Buccaneers because of being swept and would also lose to Carolina because of a worse divisional record.
Firstly, New Orleans needs to take care of business on the field. The Saints have had multiple chances to take control of the division, but have yet to even win back-to-back games in 2022.
None of these NFC South teams have looked worthy of a playoff berth after 14 games. Yet, whoever is left standing will not only get into the postseason, but will also host the conference's Number 5 seed in the wild-card round.
Falcons-Saints Coverage From the Week
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- Saints X-Factors vs Falcons | Week 15
- Saints Fantasy Football: Start'em or Sit'em for Week 15
- Fantasy Football's Biggest Risks to Start in the Playoffs | Week 15
- Saints Must Fluster Falcons Rookie QB for Week 15 Win
- Saints Final Injury Report for Week 15
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- The Bayou Blitz Podcast - Falcons vs Saints Preview
- First Look: Falcons vs. Saints
- SNN Roundtable: Saints Biggest Disappointment in 2022
- Saints Announce Their Week 15 Starting Quarterback
- Saints Face Rookie QB in Week 15
- Saints Playoff Scenario-Week 15
