Can Sharks Forward Salvage Rookie Season?

While one San Jose Sharks rookie is excelling, another one is trying to find a way to salvage his first season in the NHL.

Dec 5, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; San Jose Sharks center Will Smith (2) shoots against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

For the rookies in the San Jose Sharks lineup, it's like A Tale of Two Cities. For the most recent top-overall pick Macklin Celebrini, being a rookie is the best of times as he sits second among all first-year players in the NHL. But for 2023 first-round pick Will Smith, the complete opposite is true.

The Sharks hoped that they would have a pair of rookies battling it out for the Calder Trophy in the spring, Through Smith's first 25 games however, he isn't even in the top-five of rookie scoring. So far he has five goals, six assists, and 11 points with 34 shots on goal and an average ice time of 14:09 minutes per game. It's shifted the battle for the 19-year-old rom personal hardware to salvaging the second half of his first season in the league.

The biggest thing that stands out is that the game just seems too fast at times. It's a common issue for young players in the league, and shouldn't be taken as a scathing indictment of the prospect he is, but it is still hindering him from finding success. He will do things like keep the puck on his stick a millisecond longer than needed, or send a pass across ice when an easier play is available for a higher percentage chance.

It's showing up in the obvious lack of overall production, but it's particularly noticeable when he is playing 5-on-5. According to advanced statistics tracking from Puck IQ, Smith has a Goals per 60 of 0.62. In laymen's terms, that means on average Smith scores 0.62 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes of ice-time. It's nearly one who point lower than his teammate Celebrini's Goals per 60 rate, as he's averaging 1.36. The numbers show that when playing at even strength, Smith is mostly out of his depth.

That doesn't mean Smith can't finish the year strong. Goals per 60 is an excellent indicator of even strength performance, but not indicative of the entirety of what a player brings and how they produce. For example, fellow Calder Trophy candidate Matvei Michkov of the Philadelphia Flyers has an even lower Goals per 60 than Smith, averaging just 0.49 goals per 60 minutes of even strength ice-time. The issue is that doesn't take into account how much of a power play specialist Michkov is, which has led to him scoring 27 points in 29 games.

Similarly, Smith is showing more of his skillset with the man advantage. Despite having just 11 total points, he has has two goals and four points on the power play, showing when he has the space and time he can create offense and convert with more success.

One key for Smith to find more success consistently is utilizing his speed more. While no one is claiming Smith is Barry Allen-like on skates, the young center is quick and has burst to get behind defensemen. He can use that speed to get into the forecheck more aggressively, which could help create more turnovers and scoring chances in turn. He needs to find ways to get dirtier, more aggressive, and by any means necessary to get his production going.

The Sharks have one of the brightest futures in the NHL with Celebrini and Smith leading their team into the next decade. But in order for Smith to salvage his first year in the NHL, he'll need to make some serious adjustments. Otherwise, he could be in jeopardy of losing his status as a future star in the organization.

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