History Says Canadiens Not Dead Yet

The Montreal Canadiens might be down but they're not out of their opening-round series against the Washington Capitals.

Apr 27, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Kaiden Guhle (21) defends the puck against Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) during the second period in game four of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images / David Kirouac-Imagn Images

With a gutsy win in Game 4, the Washington Capitals took a 3-1 series lead over the Montreal Canadiens in the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. While a 3-1 series lead puts the Capitals in the driver’s seat, that doesn’t mean the Canadiens are out of it.

According to history, however, down 3-1 might be exactly where the Canadiens want to be. According to Sportsnet Stats, the Capitals have lost a playoff series despite having a 3-1 lead five times in their franchise’s history.

Blowing a 3-1 lead five times is more than any other team in the NHL.

If there's any consolation for the Canadiens:

The Capitals have lost 5 best-of-7 series in franchise history when leading 3-1, the most by any NHL team.

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 28, 2025

Celebrating their 50th season, the Capitals have seen genuine Stanley Cup contending teams bow out of the playoffs early thanks to this trend. This kind of bad mojo around the Capitals is something the Canadiens need to take advantage of.

The Canadiens haven’t looked completely out of the first four games of this series, either. They forced overtime in Game 1, stayed closed in Game 2, won Game 3, and were again right there for most of Game 4.

It’s been a wild series up to this point, complete with bench brawls, high tempers, and both the Capitals and Canadiens losing their starting goalies in Game 3. Logan Thompson ended up returning in Game 4 for the Capitals, but the Canadiens say Sam Montembeault is out on a day-to-day basis.

While the Capitals have a knack for blowing 3-1 leads, it’s been a decade since they did so. The last time the Capitals watched a 3-1 lead slip away was in 2015 in a second round series against the New York Rangers.

For what it’s worth, the Capitals have only had one 3-1 lead since 2015. The very next year, they had the Philadelphia Flyers on the ropes with a 3-1 lead and won in six games.

The Capitals also haven’t won a playoff series since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018. They’ll have their work cut out for them as they look to ward off their own demons and a battling Canadiens team.

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