Lightning, Jets Goalie Defy Positional Volatility

Both the starting goalies for the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Winnipeg Jets are defying the volatility the position carries.

Jan 7, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina Hurricanes right wing Andrei Svechnikov (37) and Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) talk during the second period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

For every team besides the Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets, there is a consensus that goaltending is the most unpredictable position in the sport. Trying to understand whether or not a goalie's performance is sustainable year-to-year is an impossible task, but the hope remains that they will get it right and strike gold on the next one.

Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Lightning and Connor Hellebuyck of the Jets have changed the game when it comes to goaltenders in the NHL. The two have dominated the position, collected awards, and defied the volatility of the position.

In a recent article from RG.org, senior writer Nick Ashbourne compiled a thorough report and overview of goaltending over the past 25 years. He looked at elite season in goal and broke down which goalies have been able to sustain that elite play for more than one season. In short, his research showed that posting back-to-back elite seasons is rare, with just 29% managing to do it. Ashbourne's observations on the results were quite blunt.

"We expected goaltenders to struggle to replicate single-season excellence over a three-season span," he wrote. "But the degree to which goalies who post elite seasons see their production decline towards league averages after is significant."

That is, except for Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, has managed to post at least a .910 save percentage in every season since 2017 and kept his goals against average under 2.97 over that span. That includes five seasons with a sub-2.60 GAA since 2017.

Vasilevskiy similary has shined brightly while the league has faltered. Between 2018 and 2023, he had five straight seasons with a 2.65 GAA or less and a .915 save percentage or better. His 2023-2024 campaign bucked the trend, with his save percentage dropping to .900 and his GAA rising to 2.90, but that was the worst statistical output of his NHL career.

These two are elite in every way and their continued dominance over the position cannot be understated. In an era when offense has resurged and the style of play favors skaters over goaltending, Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy are able to stand out as the ones to overcome the most volatile position in the NHL.

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