2025 National League MVP Candidates: Odds, Best Bet, Prediction
Following a historic 2024 campaign, Shohei Ohtani leads the charge as the favorite to secure the National League MVP in 2025. His unparalleled two-way talent gives him the edge, but the competition is fierce. Superstar slugger Juan Soto and electrifying Fernando Tatis Jr. are ready to challenge for the crown, while Mookie Betts and Bryce Harper bring veteran experience and elite production to the race. Let’s explore the top five favorites in the National League MVP betting market, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and break down their prospects for the upcoming season.
DH/OF/SP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (+145)
The Dodgers structured Ohtani's contract to pay him $2 million annually from 2024 to 2033, followed by a 10-year stretch where he'll earn $68 million per season. Given his exceptional hitting prowess, the fantasy market increasingly views him as a dominant offensive force. His raw power is unmatched, and he boasts an impressive streak of 35 consecutive successful steals. However, with pitching back on his plate, the Dodgers may limit his aggressiveness on the basepaths in 2025.
His increased plate appearances last season, coupled with the move to Los Angeles, propelled him to elite production across five categories. With 600 at-bats, a .300 average, 125 runs, 50 home runs, 120 RBIs, and 30 steals is a realistic projection. Additionally, fantasy managers can gain an edge by utilizing Ohtani's pitching ability late in the season. It's worth noting that he underwent surgery in early November to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, sustained during the World Series.
OF Juan Soto, New York Mets (+550)
Soto delivered an impressive 2024 campaign, ranking sixth in FPGscore (8.95) for hitters, a significant jump from his 2023 mark (5.98). However, his lack of stolen bases places added pressure on his ability to hit for a high average, likely around .320, to compensate for this shortfall. With the Mets boasting strong on-base talent at the top of their lineup, Soto is expected to slot into the third spot.
Pete Alonso's re-signing was crucial for lineup protection and boosting Soto's run production. Despite his elite plate discipline, Soto's tendency to draw walks limits his opportunities to reach 600 at-bats, which caps his home run potential. While his ceiling in runs, home runs, and RBIs is undeniable, Soto must either improve his efficiency on the basepaths or maintain an elite batting average to deliver true difference-making stats.
OF Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (+850)
Tatis played 102 games last season after missing 10 weeks with a quad injury. He hit .279 in his first 308 at-bats, tallying 50 runs, 14 home runs, 36 RBIs, and eight steals, putting him on pace for an 89/25/64/20 season over 550 at-bats. His power showed noticeable improvement in September, where he posted a .267 average with 14 runs, 7 home runs, 13 RBIs, and 3 steals over 90 at-bats.
Despite his solid numbers, Tatis doesn’t quite warrant a first-round pick in drafts. His contact batting average (.364) is still strong but has dropped from his previous seasons (.432). With a projected floor of 30 home runs and ample stolen base potential, the question for fantasy managers is whether to take a chance on his upside or avoid the risk of injury. With free agency a long way off (2035), Tatis has the potential to be a top-five hitter if he can stay healthy for 150+ games.
SS/OF Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (+900)
After a mixed performance over the last five months, Betts might seem like a trap pick. He only hit 24 barrels last season (106 over the past two years), but how much of that decline in power can be attributed to injury? Playing in one of the highest-scoring offenses in baseball gives Betts excellent run-scoring opportunities. His shortstop eligibility adds significant value, and he’s shown a greater willingness to steal bases since MLB's changes to stolen base rules. However, his pursuit of more power has led to more fly balls, resulting in easier outs. For 2025, Betts is projected to hit .280 with 125 runs, 30 home runs, 85 RBIs, and 15 steals, provided he starts 150+ games.
1B Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (+1400)
Harper consistently gets on base, which should help him easily surpass 100 runs, and he has the power potential to hit plenty of home runs. Last season, his FPGscore (3.67) ranked him 25th among hitters. While it’s unlikely that Harper will have the best season of his career at age 32, his all-around skill set still holds significant value. For 2025, expect a baseline of .280/85/35/95/10, with the hope that he exceeds those targets across the board.
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani (+145)
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-93d081519425a2ac5afbaba6a5df6de3.jpg "Matt Brandon")
Matt Brandon has worked in the Fantasy Sports / Sports Media industry for over a decade including stints at Scout Media, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, DrRoto.com, Fantasy SP, FullTime Fantasy, and more. Brandon produced Top-10 rankings in FantasyPros’ nationwide contest three years in a row. He has taken down a few big DFS tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings but his bread and butter is season-long fantasy football, fantasy basketball, and sports betting. Brandon bleeds blue for his New York sports teams: the New York Giants, New York Knicks, New York Rangers, and New York Mets.