2025 Fantasy Baseball: Bryce Miller Profile, Preview, Predictions

Seattle Mariners Starting Pitcher Bryce Miller | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

For fantasy drafters looking for a rising arm with ace upside, Bryce Miller looks poised to reach higher heights in 2025.

Bryce Miller's 2Ks in the 7th. pic.twitter.com/X8eIsxFA8z

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 24, 2024

SP – Bryce Miller, SEA (ADP – 80.5)

2025 Bryce Miller Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

After underperforming in his college career (8-6 with a 4.07 ERA and 141 strikeouts over 110.2 innings), the Mariners drafted Miller in the fourth round in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. His arm shined in 2022 over three levels of the minors (7-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 163 strikeouts over 133.2 innings).

In 2023, Miller had four starts at AA with a sharp decline in value (14 runs, 26 baserunners, and five home runs over 19.2 innings). Surprisingly, his arm was major league-ready. He dominated over his first five appearances with Seattle (1.15 ERA, 0.510 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 31.1 innings), but the league caught up to Miller in his next two starts (15 runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs over seven innings). Over his final 18 starts, he posted a 4.26 ERA and 86 strikeouts over 93.0 innings due to surrendering 15 home runs and five disaster outings (27 runs, 41 baserunners, and 10 home runs over 24.2 innings).

Miller pitched well last season in April (3-2 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.877 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). His five down days in May and June led to a 4.94 ERA and 1.145 WHIP over 62.0 innings with 52 strikeouts for two months. His arm moved into an elite area over his final 14 games (6-1 with a 1.84 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts over 83.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.3 mph) had less usage (42.2% - .183 BAA) in 2024 due to the addition of a split-finger fastball (17.1% - .146 BAA with 55 strikeouts). Miller added more sinkers (.246 BAA), sliders (.241 BAA), and curveballs (.231 BAA) while ditching his changeup.

Fantasy Outlook: The next magical step in Miller’s game is a jump in strikeouts. The change to his split-finger pitch last season erased his weakness against left-handed batters while giving another swing-and-miss pitch. He looks poised to push his way up the starting pitching ranks in 2025 while being mispriced in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. Only 10 starters were better than him last year based on my FPGscore (4.12) ratings, and at least half of those pitchers will be passed this year.

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