Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitchers (Tier 14)

Shawn Childs | Feb 13, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

We continue to rank the top starting pitchers heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Fantasy on SI breaks down the next tier of pitchers:

66 – Brandon Woodruff, MIL (ADP – 232.2)

A right ankle injury put Woodruff on the injured list in late May of 2022 for a month while also battling some numbness in his fingers on his pitching hand. He struggled over his first nine starts (4.74 ERA) due to three poor showings (16 runs, 28 baserunners, and 14 strikeouts over 12 innings). After returning from his injury, Woodruff went 8-1 over his final 18 starts with a 2.38 ERA, .202 BAA, and 137 strikeouts over 109.2 innings.

In 2023, he pitched well in his first two games (one run over 11.1 innings with 10 baserunners and 12 strikeouts). Unfortunately, a right shoulder injury pushed him to the sidelines for four months. Woodruff showed no ill effects over his final nine games (4-1 with a 2.59 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts over 55.2 innings). After the season, Milwaukee shut him down before the playoffs and then decided on surgery to repair his right shoulder issue. He missed all of 2024. 

His average fastball (95.8) remained a plus when he was last on the mound despite losing about half a mph from 2022. Woodruff featured his changeup at the highest usage rate (19.7) of his career. Other than his slider (.278 BAA), batters struggled to hit four-seamer (.174 BAA), sinker (.193 BAA), changeup (.098 BAA), and curveball (.182 BAA).

Big day Friday for Brandon Woodruff, who will face hitters for the first time since Sept. 23, 2023. He’ll throw around 20 pitches.

He also wants to make something clear: pic.twitter.com/qwlkLYGoxa

— Todd Rosiak (@Todd_Rosiak) February 12, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: The Brewers expect Woodruff to be a helpful arm in 2025, but he may not be ready for opening day. His lack of a return date, paired with some fantasy apprehension about the value of his stuff, has created a potential discount in drafts. Shoulder injuries can be challenging to recover from, so following his fantasy progress this spring is essential. Based on his previous four seasons on the mound (30-20 with a 2.76 ERA and 566 strikeouts over 473.1 innings), Woodruff could be a big mover up the draft board in March.

67 – Bowden Francis, TOR (ADP – 228.9)

Before 2023, Francis had nothing to offer to fantasy teams or the Toronto Blue Jays. He went 33-37 over his first 121 games in the minors with a 4.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 534 strikeouts over 513.2 innings. 

His arm progressed in 2023 in the minors over 30.0 innings (2.67 ERA, 1.167, seven walks, and 42 strikeouts), earning Francis a better opportunity with the Blue Jays. Over 20 appearances in relief with Toronto, he allowed seven runs, 30 baserunners, and 35 strikeouts over 36.1 innings. 

He opened last season in the Blue Jays starting rotation, but Francis was a disaster over his first three appearances (14 runs, 21 baserunners, and four home runs over 10.2 innings with 15 strikeouts). After four shutout innings in relief with two strikeouts, he landed on the injured list with a forearm issue. Francis made four appearances in the minors (1.74 ERA, 0.774 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts over 10.1 innings) in May, leading to a move back to Toronto’s bullpen (11 runs, 32 base runners, and 17 strikeouts over 24.0 innings).

After a two-start spin drive in the minors (no runs, three baserunners, and 13 strikeouts over nine innings), Francis developed into a beast free-agent pickup in the fantasy market over his final 65.0 innings (5-3 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts). 

His average fastball (93.1) wasn’t an edge in velocity. Francis's growth came from the addition of a split-finger fastball (.160 BAA) at the expense of his curveball (.250) and slider (.207 BAA). Batters struggled with his four-seamer (.170 BAA with 64 strikeouts). He has been a groundball pitcher (46.5%) over the past two seasons. Here’s his pitch mix and success over the final two months from Brooks Baseball:

Bowden Francis in 13 starts last season 👀

77.0 IP
45 H
13 BB/73 K
2.92 ERA pic.twitter.com/NI7lvAAbds

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 4, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Forearm injuries can lead to elbow issues and potentially to TJ surgery. His meteoric rise late last season is a short sample size but one that brings back memories of Mike Scott’s breakthrough season in 1986 (306 over 275.1 innings – 137 strikeouts over 221.2 innings in 1985). His split-finger pitch, improved command, and ability to get swing-and-misses with league-average velocity on his fastball bodes well for success this year. Player to follow this spring as Francis may continue to his ride in 2025 if his arm is healthy.

68 – Jose Berrios, TOR (ADP – 248.3)

Over the past four years, Berrios posted an ERA of 3.65 or lower three times while not missing his turn in the rotation since 2020. His WHIP graded well in 2021 (1.063), 2023 (1.186), and 2024 (1.154). He’s pitched at least 172.0 innings since 2018, except for the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. 

At first glance, Berrios checked winning boxes in wins (16), ERA (3.60), and WHIP (1.154) last season, but home runs (31 – 1.5 per nine) were a problem. In addition, he lost his strikeout ability (7.2 per nine). Despite his regression, batters only hit .235 against him. 

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Berrios had a 2.93 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts over his first 86.0 innings while allowing more than three runs in one game (eight runs, nine baserunners, and two home runs over 3.2 innings). His arm lost all value over his next nine outings (34 runs, 71 baserunners, and 12 home runs over 49.2 innings). Somehow, he found his rhythm over his final 56.2 innings (7-2 with a 2.38 ERA, 0.988 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts) while allowing six home runs.

His average fastball (94.2) aligned with his previous four years. Berrios shined with his slider (.186 BAA) and changeup (.171 BAA) despite serving up 20 home runs over 339 at-bats. He had below-par results with his four-seamer (.271 BAA) and sinker (.280 BAA). Berrios had a reverse split against righties and lefties with his fastballs (LH – four-seam ~ .302/sinker ~ .213 and RH – four-seam ~ .212/sinker ~ .329).

Fantasy Outlook: His decline in strikeouts should be a red flag and one I plan on focusing on in 2025. There is something to be said for a backend starter who takes the ball every fifth day. Berrios handled batters well for two-thirds of his starts (two runs or fewer in 21 outings) last season, so I can’t dismiss a rebound in his overall game.

69 – Spencer Arrighetti, HOU (ADP – 207.9)

The Astros drafted Arrighetti in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft after improving in college (7-6 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 83.2 innings). His walk rate (4.4) was an issue over four seasons in the minors, leading to a 4.37 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, and 325 strikeouts over 253.1 innings. Despite struggles at AAA (4.35 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts over 72.1 innings), Houston called him up after two starts (two runs, 14 baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over 8.1 innings) in 2024.

Major league batters had their way with him over his first 15 outings (4-7 with a 6.13 ERA, 1.652 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 69.0 innings with 80 strikeouts). Arrighetti transformed into a valuable fantasy asset over his final 14 games (3.08 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 76.0 innings), but he did battle home runs (11). Over this span, his walk rate (3.1) was much better than his previous resume (5.1 walks per nine over his first 69.0 innings with the Astros).

His average fastball (94.2) beat the league average. Arrighetti mixed in a curveball, cutter, slider, and changeup. Three pitches had winning value against left-handed batters (CB – .180 BAA, CT – .125 BAA, and a show-me slider – .111 BAA), but they drilled his changeup (.395 BAA) with success vs. his four-seamer (.281 BAA and .512 SLG). He had more success with his slider (.146 BAA) against righties, along with his curveball (.132 BAA). 

Fantasy Outlook: This draft season, the fantasy market will be drawn to his growth over the second half of 2024, highlighted by four double-digit strikeout games (10, 12, 13, and 11). His success starts with getting ahead in the count, allowing him to take advantage of his swing-and-miss curveball and slider (87 combined K’s last year). I understand the temptation, but there will be many down days and bad innings when Arrighetti battles walks and home runs. If his fastball improves this spring, the top of the strike zone will be easier to control with high heat. I see WHIP risk while understanding that he will be better in 2025.

Ronel Blanco✅
Bryan Abreu✅
Hunter Brown✅
Spencer Arrighetti✅ pic.twitter.com/bX4btspAFi

— Will Kunkel (@WillKunkelFOX) February 13, 2025

70 – Ronel Blanco, HOU (ADP – 246.2)

Fantasy drafters shopping in Blanco’s aisle in 2024 were rewarded with an excellent value season. Over his previous three years in the minors, while splitting time between starting and relief, he went 16-14 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 196 strikeouts, and 27 saves over 163.0 innings. His ceiling was compromised by a high walk rate (4.0). Houston gave him 17 games of experience in 2023, but there was no hint of him handling batters over a long season.

Last year, Blanco made the Astros starting rotation out of spring training. He pitched 15 shutout innings in his first two starts, leading to a great first nine games (5-0 with 1.99 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, and 51 strikeouts over 54.1 innings). His arm held up over his final 21 appearances (3.19 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, and 115 strikeouts over 113.0 innings), thanks to allowing two runs or fewer in 14 of those starts.

His arsenal played well against righties (.190 BAA) and lefties (.191 BAA) batters. Blanco threw more strikes (3.7 – 4.8 in 2023) while allowing the fewest hits per nine innings (6.1) in the American League.

He had about a league-average fastball (93.6). Blanco upped the usage (22.2% - 9.0 in 2023) and his confidence in his changeup (.183 BAA). His four-seamer (.230 BAA), slider (.180 BAA), and curveball (.070 BAA) graded as plus pitches. 

Fantasy Outlook: At age 31, the fantasy market must decide if he is a fact or fiction story. His repertoire showed promise, but Blanco must repeat his questionable command to have any chance of even posting a 3.50 ERA. I sense WHIP risk and more disaster games due to home runs. In the end, his ERA in 2025 drives his price point this year. Any pitcher who allowed 50 fewer hits than innings pitched wasn’t lucky. Interesting coin flip.

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