Are Rookie Cards Dead?
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One one hand, the question of whether rookie cards are dead seems preposterous. Mickey Mantle aside, the most sought after card of just about any baseball great of the last hundred years is his rookie card. Hank Aaron? Check! Roberto Clemente? Check! Pete Rose? Check! Nolan Ryan? Check! Ken Griffey? Check! So yeah, the rookie card is most definitely not dead, you might argue. On the other hand, that was then and this is now.
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There was a time in the Hobby where, at least for the most part, a player's rookie card and a player's first card (or oldest card, if you prefer) were one and the same. Common examples include the 1967 Topps Tom Seaver, the 1968 Topps Nolan Ryan, and the 1969 Topps Reggie Jackson. Nowadays, however, the game's biggest superstars are likely to have literally thousands of other cards out before their rookie cards, creating a much more complicated picture for collectors.
Taking Paul Skenes as an example, his rookie card is any of a number of cards issued in 2024 and (critically!) displaying the official "RC" logo. The canonical example for Skenes is his 2024 Topps Update card, which any collector buying enough packs of Update would have had no problem adding to their collection back in 2024. If the old rules of the Hobby still applied, these would be the Skenes cards to hang onto for posterity, the ones that decades from now might carry a supersized premium over other Skenes cards of the era. But again, that was then and this is now.
For just about any modern player, certainly including Skenes, there are now (at least) three other cards challenging the primacy of the rookie card, not even counting autographed cards, "Chrome," rare parallels, short prints, and the like. The defining feature of each of these cards is simply that they came earlier than the player's rookie card and carry some quality of "firstness" about them.
First Topps NOW
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While the 2024 Topps Update Paul Skenes card was released in October 2024, the first of Paul's many Topps NOW cards was released in May, a full five months earlier. Though both are considered rookie cards, this is often not the case for late-season call-ups, one example being Elly De La Cruz in 2023. For such players, their first Topps NOW cards typically come the year before their official rookie cards. (Newer collectors might wonder why such Topps NOW "Call Up" cards are not rookie cards. The answer here is simply "Because MLBPA said so.")
First Bowman
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Produced by Topps under the Bowman label, the "First Bowman" is what Topps describes as "the player's first official card." Though the player in question may not yet have ever suited up with a big league ballclub, the Topps art department does whatever magic is needed to create the illusion.
First Baseball Card
Despite the use of terms like "first" or "rookie," none of the above cards are typically anywhere close to a player's first actual card. In the case of Paul Skenes, he had cards all the way back in 2019 when he was a high school catcher! For Japanese stars such as Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, first cards would nearly always come from Japanese sets. As for Cal Raleigh, his first card dates all the way back to the 2014 Bowman Under Armour All-American Game set!
Comparison of Values
None of this information is new to the informed collector. Ever since the modern definition of "rookie card" entered the Hobby in 2006, collectors have been well aware that anywhere from dozens to thousands of a player's earliest cards were at best "pre-rookie" cards. What is new, at least for casual collectors, is that these pre-rookie cards, by and large, have become more desirable than actual rookie cards. In the case of Paul Skenes, for example, here are current values based on Card Ladder data at the PSA 9 grade.
- 2024 Topps Update - $17
- 2024 Topps NOW #179 - $24
- 2023 First Bowman - $20
- 2019 "First Card" - $373
While the "first card" data are skewed by a release in which all cards were autographed and numbered to 50 or less, the data nonetheless show the standard rookie card at the bottom of the pack. What's more, Skenes is hardly alone with respect to this phenomenon. That 2023 Topps NOW Elly De La Cruz that didn't count as his rookie card? It's valued 57% higher than his actual rookie card? Aaron Judge's First Bowman? 48% higher than his standard Topps rookie card? A Japanese Shohei Ohtani card from 2013? A full 347% the price of his official rookie cards issued five years later!
Put it all together, and it's hard not to come to this inevitable conclusion. Today, more than ever, collectors have perfect clarity as to what constitutes the rookie card of a modern player. At the same time, more than ever, this information may well be completely meaningless!
Jason A. Schwartz is a collectibles expert whose work can be found regularly at SABR Baseball Cards, Hobby News Daily, and 1939Bruins.com. His collection of Hank Aaron baseball cards and memorabilia is currently on exhibit at the Atlanta History Center, and his collectibles-themed artwork is on display at the Honus Wagner Museum and PNC Park.