The Secret to Card Prospecting: Give Yourself a Second Out
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Victor Wembanyama’s recent injury has been devastating for many card collectors in the hobby. He’s now ineligible for Defensive Player of the Year, despite seeming like a lock to win it this season. The truth is, this is just one of the risks you assume when prospecting on expensive cards of young talent. While this can’t be completely avoided, wouldn’t it be great if there was a way to get a great card of your favorite prospect without tying all of the risk to that player?
Victor Wembanyama card values changing with season ending injury news
BREAKING: Victor Wembanyama is expected to miss the remainder of the season with a deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder, per @ShamsCharania
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) February 20, 2025
Get well Wemby 🙏 pic.twitter.com/TUS3bp66mp
Victor Wembanyama Jersey swap sells for $73K at Auction
Let’s discuss an approach that often gets overlooked among young collectors and investors, but can help to mitigate some of the risk.
The approach, simply put, is to give yourself a second out. If there's a specific player you believe in and would like to prospect on, look for a card of that player that's part of a set with the potential to gain traction down the road. Don't get me wrong - there's no doubt that the majority (at least for the time being) of the value is still tied to the player. However, this approach still gives you a second out, should that set itself begin to be sought after by collectors.
Here’s an example of this dynamic at play:
I came to the decision a bit ago that I wanted a 2018 Prizm Luka Doncic rookie card in my portfolio. While this decision may not make the most fiscal sense (the Luka Prizm rookie is overpriced in the eyes of many and has a highly volatile market), I nevertheless loved the aesthetic of the card and insisted on adding one to my collection. The only question was which parallel to go after. Many were suggesting I go with his Blue Ice /99 for its sharp team color match, and while it’s gorgeous in hand, i felt it tied all the value to Luka’s success.
Instead, I thought about whether there was any significance to the 2018 Prizm set outside of Luka, and there was. 2018 Prizm was the first year of the Nebula and Tiger Stripe Prizms. I, therefore, opted for the 2018 Tiger.
I know what you're thinking - the value of Luka's 2018 Tiger Prizm is directly related to his success, and there's no doubt that's the case. Nevertheless, this leaves a small out. The 2018 Tiger Stripe Prizm set is more likely to be put together than the 2018 Blue Ice Prizm set - and while I certainly may have lowered the ceiling on what the card could be worth, I believe I’ve also raised the floor. Here’s a Card Ladder index on the 2018 Tiger Stripe Prizm set over the last 2 years:
Don’t take my word for it: do your own research and collect what you like. Just something to consider as you build your collection.
Jason is a dedicated basketball card collector who recently transitioned into writing and educating others about the sports card industry. Find him on Instagram @jeancardz