Why 95% of Baseball Card Collectors Chose Lou Gehrig Over Shohei Ohtani

The results of a simple baseball card poll says a lot about the card market.

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Both a 2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani PSA 10  rookie card and a 1933 Goudey Lou Gehrig SGC 1.5 sell for around $4,500. So I posted a simple question for collectors. Which card would you rather own?

I expected the results to be fairly even. Ohtani is the most popular player in the modern era. Gem Rate data shows he is already the most graded baseball player in history, surpassing icons like Ken Griffey Jr., despite making his MLB debut just eight years ago. Ohtani has global popularity, four MVPs, and many collectors believe he has a chance to become the greatest player ever. Meanwhile, Gehrig was only an SGC 1.5.

Despite entering MLB only eight years ago, Shohei Ohtani already has nearly 900,000 graded cards across the four major grading companies. Only Michael Jordan has more graded cards. | Gem Rate

But the final vote wasn't close. Out of more than 450 responses, an overwhelming 95% of collectors chose Gehrig. The results say a lot about what the hobby values most.

Why Collectors Chose Gehrig

Some consider the 1933 Goudey Lou Gehrig his rookie card because it was his first mainstream bubble gum card. That being said, most collectors consider Gehrig’s 1925 Exhibit card to be his true rookie. | Card Ladder

The most prominent theme among the polled collectors was scarcity. Collectors repeatedly pointed out that there are simply too many Ohtani cards on the market, especially compared to Gehrig. “Own a piece of history or one of 10,000 that all look the same?” collector Daniel Fulkerson wrote. Peter Silva added, “Ohtani cards are so easy to come by.”

Lou Gehrig’s 1933 Goudey has a total population count of 2,884. This means that 2,884 Lou Gehrig cards have been graded by one of the four major card grading companies. 1,753 of these Gehrig cards received a grade higher than 1.5. For comparison, the 2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani rookie has a total population of 11,153, which includes 5,231 PSA 10s.

This chart tracks the growth of the 2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani #1. it has gone up nearly 600% in the last two years alone. | Card Ladder

Some collectors focused on the difference between true rarity and modern manufactured scarcity. “I’d take any $4,500 vintage card over any $4,500 ultra modern card,” Eddie Prence wrote. “Basically, it’s down to established value vs. hype, speculation, and manufactured scarcity.”

Many collectors justified their answers by focusing on long-term stability. “Lou for safety. Ohtani for upside,” William Ryan Wundrach wrote. Yankee Keith added, “Gehrig has held long-term value. Ohtani market will eventually be a victim.” Many pointed out that injuries or a scandal can severely harm the Ohtani market, while Gehrig’s legacy is safe. 

Many collectors stated that owning a Lou Gehrig card was like owning a piece of history. Gehrig's battle with ALS and his famous "Luckiest Man" speech have helped him reach iconic status. (This Topps Gehrig SSP card from 2020 sold for $435 in a PSA 10). | Card Ladder

Many Ohtani fans and collectors noted that “Shotime’s” cards could still rise more in value as he stacks MVPs and championships, but they still admitted they would personally rather own the Gehrig.

Why This Is Bullish for Vintage

This Lou Gehrig rookie card sold for over $387,000 in 2023 | Card Ladder

Despite all the attention modern cards get online, collectors overwhelmingly preferred an iconic pre-war card in a SGC 1.5 holder over a pristine PSA 10 rookie of the biggest modern baseball player in the world. 

People look at iconic cards like the 1933 Goudey Gehrig in awe. Even low-grade examples feel special because so few survived and because the cards connect collectors directly to baseball history. The Gehrig was viewed as a card people buy to keep. The Ohtani was often viewed as a card people buy to eventually sell.

For vintage cards, eye appeal can matter more than grade. | Eye Appeal Inc.

Collectors should take note of this when thinking about which cards to buy for the long term. With modern cards, especially ultra-high-pop PSA 10 rookies, many buyers are still thinking like investors or flippers first. That does not bode well for their long-term upside.