5 Reasons why Derrick Henry Still has a Shot at NFL Rushing Title: Bama in the NFL Tracker Week 18

He's been in this situation before, and everyone on his sideline knew exactly how many yards that former Alabama running back Derrick Henry needed to be the NFL rushing king. It was 2019, back when he was with the Tennessee Titans, and his team needed a win in the final week of the regular season to clinch the division title and playoff spot.

Coming in, Henry was third among league rushing leaders behind Cleveland's Nick Chubb and Carolina's Christian McCaffrey. But between them all Henry's game finished last, which ended up being crucial. Not only did Tennessee defeat Houston 35-14, Henry tallied 211 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries, the last one being for a 53-yard touchdown to clinch everything. Had the Titans played first that weekend, he may not have been on the field at that point.

Instead, Henry's 1,540 yards earned him his first NFL rushing title, and he was the first Titans running back to win the rushing crown since Chris Johnson in 2009 (2,006 yards).

Could he do it again this weekend, for his third rushing title? The odds are against him, but scenario is familiar. His team is playing for a division title and spot in the playoffs. Henry's third in league rushing. And, again, he'll be playing last, and will know exactly how many yards he trails. The situation is so similar that in both cases Henry's team lost to the same division opponent just a few weeks previous.

Despite being 31, Henry's in striking range thanks to his 216 rushing yards and four touchdowns at Green Bay last week. Following Baltimore's 41-24 victory, he was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the 10th time, tying him with Emmitt Smith for the third-most Offensive Player of the Week awards by a running back all-time, one behind Barry Sanders and LaDainian Tomlinson.

It also kept him with striking distance of the frontrunners, although the gap is not small. He's 90 yards out of second, and 137 yards out of first,

NFL Rushing Leaders

1. James Cook III, Buffalo, 1,606
2. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis, 1,559 (-47)
3. Derrick Henry, Baltimore, 1,469 (-137)

Here are five reasons why no one should count Henry out until the the final game wraps up, which fittingly he'll be playing.

1. The Bills

The Bills are playing their final game at Highmark Stadium (formerly Rich Stadium), against the 3-13 Jets, so the primary goal is to close it out with a win. Buffalo (11-5) blew its chance to still be in the running for the AFC East title, and is heading into this weekend as the No. 7 seed. It can only move up a spot to two and is locked in as opening the playoffs on the road (the most likely destination is Jacksonville). Regardless, one has to think that resting players will be a top priority if possible. Cook is coming of a 20-carry performance for 74 yards against the Eagles. If he does that again, Henry will need another 200-yard game.

2. The Colts

At 8-8, the Colts have been eliminated from the playoffs, and Philip Rivers, who at age 44 came out of retirement for a three-game stint, will be the emergency quarterback this week. Instead, rookie quarterback Riley Leonard will start the regular-season finale against Houston, while the Texans have a chance to win the AFC South. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 70 yards and a touchdown in Week 17, but one has to think he'll be hard-pressed to do much as Houston stacks the box to stop him.

3. 30 is the magic number

Henry had a career-high 36 carries last week. His previous high was 35 during an overtime win against Seattle in 2021. How many times has he had back-to-back games with 30-plus carries? He's done it twice, during the 2020 playoffs and the 2022 regular season when he had 128 and 219 rushing yards for the Titans against the Colts and Texans, respectively. However, every time he's had 30 carries in a game Henry's topped 100 rushing yards, and averaged 175.8. Factor in playoff games and it's 177.9.

4. Injuries

Lamar Jackson is expected to start, but he's been dealing with a back injury. That's in part why Henry got so many carries last week. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh outside linebacker T.J. Watt has missed three games after undergoing lung surgery, and even if he's available one has to think that he'll be on the equivalent of a pitch count. Both situations point to Henry getting a lot of carries, as does the weather. The forecast after the sun sets Sunday evening is for cloudy skies, a chance of light snow and the temperature dropping to the low 20s.

5. Deja vu?

Pittsburgh's had success against Henry, who is 1-5 for this career against the Steelers in regular-season games. However, he's one of those players who no one wants to face late in a season when players are worn down. For this career, Henry's posted his best numbers from NFL Week 13-plus, averaging 105.6 yards per game, and it shoots up to 143.0 during games played in January. The Steelers aren't exempt from this. Four weeks ago, Henry ran for 94 yards in 25 attempts as Baltimore lost at home to the Steelers, 27-22. However, last season against Pittsburgh he had 65 yards on 13 attempts in the first division meeting (Nov. 17), 24 attempts for 162 yards in the in the second meeting (Dec. 21), and then 186 rushing yards on 26 carries in the wild-card round (Jan. 11), won by Baltimore 28-14.

Incidentally, since this is essentially a playoff game (more on that in a moment), Henry had seven postseason games to his credit. In three of them he had 182 rushing yards or more. The number of carries he had in each: 34, 30 and the 26.

Bama in the NFL Statistical Leaders

Category, Name, Team, Statistic (Second)
Passing yards: Jalen Hurts, Eagles, 3,224 (Bryce Young 2,745)
Passer rating: Jalen Hurts, Eagles, 98.5 (Mac Jones 97.4)
Rushing yards: Derrick Henry, Ravens, 1,469 (Jahmyr Gibbs 1,143)
Receptions: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions, and DeVonta Smith, Eagles, 74
Receiving yards: Jameson Williams Lions, 1,043 (DeVonta Smith 956)
Forced fumbles: Will Anderson Jr., Texans; Dallas Turner, Vikings; Quinnen Williams, Jets/Cowboys, 3
Fumble recoveries: Will Anderson Jr., Texans; and Minkah Fitzpatrick, Dolphins, 2
Tackles: Jordan Battle, Bengals, 122 (Xavier McKinney 107)
Interceptions: Jordan Battle, Bengals; Marlon Humphrey, Ravens 4

More on King Henry

• Henry ranks second in the league with 16 rushing touchdowns. Since entering the league in 2016, he leads all players with 122 rushing touchdowns, the fourth-most in NFL history.

• With a rushing touchdown at Pittsburgh, Henry will tie Marcus Allen (123) for the third-most rushing touchdowns in NFL history. He'll only trail trail Emmitt Smith (164) and LaDainian Tomlinson (145).

• With the 216-yard performance last week Henry has the most 200-yard surhign games in league history with seven. He had been tied with Adrian Peterson and O.J. Simpson (both with six).

• Henry needs just 31 rushing yards against the Steelers to become the second player in NFL history with 1,500-plus rushing yards in different seasons (Barry Sanders).

• Henry has 41 career games with at least 100 rushing yards.

Bama in the NFL Week 18 Tracker

For the full set of statistics on how the former Crimson Tide players did this week, check out our elaborate Bama in the NFL Week 18 Tracker. It will be updated throughout the weekend until every game is concluded:

Bama in the NFL tracker weekly injury update.. Click for full stats — Bama in the NFL tracker injury update.. Click for full stats | Kristi F. Patrick/BamaCentral

The Ultimate Bama in the NFL Database

Contract Info, Status of Former Alabama Crimson Tide Players
Active Crimson Tide Players by Team, Position
All-Time Alabama Crimson Tide Players in the NFL
All-Time Crimson Tide Draft Selections

Bama in the NFL: Game of the Week

We were all set to have Carolina (8-8) at Tampa Bay (7-9) on Saturday listed here, but it's not as simple as the winner advances to the postseason and the loser gets home. Carolina can also clinch with an Atlanta win over New Orleans on Sunday. If the Falcons lose, the Bucs are done regardless of what they do in this game, so we could see the Panthers lose and still back into the Super Bowl tournament. Instead, Baltimore at Pittsburgh is an all-or-nothing game. The winner clinches the AFC North and the AFC's No. 4 seed while the loser is eliminated from playoff contention. Conveniently, it's game No. 272 on the NFL schedule, meaning it's the last one of the regular season on Sunday night.

Bama In The NFL: Week 18 Notes

• We mentioned that DeMeco Ryans' Houston Texans (11-5) have something to play for against the Colts, they can clinch the AFC South with a win and a Jacksonville loss against Tennessee (3-13). That may be a a lot to ask for, however, Houston has won eight straight and won't want to mess with the momentum heading into the postseason. The Texans are just the fifth team since 1990 to begin 0-3 and qualify for the playoffs, joining the 2018 Houston Texans, 1998 Buffalo Bills, 1995 Detroit Lions and 1992 San Diego Chargers

• Don't be surprised if cornerback Trevon Diggs gets a lot of playing time for Green Bay aginst Minnesota after being claimed off waivers. The Packers are locked in as the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs, and will play either at Chicago or Philadelphia in the first round. The coaches need to make a quick assessment on how much he can help in the postseason, and possibly beyond. For more check out Green Bay Packers On SI.

• A lot of playoff teams are expected to rest starters this week, including the Philadelphia Eagles against the Washington Commanders. If Jalen Hurts doesn't play, it'll could mean that Bryce Young is the only one of the five former Crimson Tide quarterbacks in the league to start this week. Last week he struggled against the Seahawks, completing 14 of 24 passes for a career-low 54 yards in the 27-10 loss. Per the New York Times, he was the first quarterback in 45 years, and sixth in the modern era, to attempt at least 24 passes and finish with 54 passing yards or fewer. However, the last time he faced Tampa Bay he had his 12th game-winning drive of his career (21 of 32 for 191 yards). Carolina could make the playoffs for the first time since 2017, but if they miss it it's going to be a long offseason for both the team and the quarterback.

• History note: Going back to Colts running back Taylor, he's just sixth player in NFL history with at least 9,000 scrimmage yards and 75 scrimmage touchdowns in his first six seasons, a list that includes Shaun Alexander. He and Alexander are also among the six players in NFL history with at least 1,500 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns in multiple seasons.

How to Watch: NFL Week 18

All Times CT
Saturday, Jan. 3
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 7 p.m., ABC/ESPN

Sunday, Jan. 4
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, noon, CBS
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, noon, CBS
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, noon., CBS
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, noon, Fox
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, noon, Foc
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, noon, Fox
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, 3:25 p.m., CBS
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 3:25 p.m., Fox
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, 3:25 p.m., CBS
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, 3:25 p.m., CBS
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, 3:25 p.m., Fox
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 3:25 p.m., Fox
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, 3:25 p.m., CBS
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 7:20 p.m., NBC

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