Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Patriots vs. Ravens on Sunday Night Football in Week 16

Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens matchup on Sunday night.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) and running back Treveyon Henderson are solid prop targets on Sunday. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

A huge matchup for the AFC playoff picture takes place on Sunday night, as the No. 2-seeded New England Patriots take on the Baltimore Ravens.

All New England needs to clinch a playoff spot is a win, but a loss would open the door for the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East this season after they knocked off New England in Week 15.

Baltimore, on the other hand, is just 7-7 this season and needs every win it can get to stay alive in the AFC North after losing the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this month. Those teams will match up one more time this season in a game that could decide the division. 

Oddsmakers have the Ravens favored at home in this matchup after they dominated the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15. Lamar Jackson and company have not been great this season, but they’re looking to finish strong and make the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Drake Maye and the Patriots want to lock up a top-two seed in the AFC, and Maye has an MVP case if the Patriots can usurp Denver in the No. 1 spot. 

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this matchup, and I’ve compiled some of our favorites to help bettors get the most out of this Sunday night battle. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Patriots vs. Ravens

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New England Patriots +3 (-115) vs. Baltimore Ravens – Iain MacMillan
• TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD (+115) – Peter Dewey
• Drake Maye OVER 242.5 Passing Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey
• Derrick Henry OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

New England Patriots +3 (-115) vs. Baltimore Ravens – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the points with New England: 

The Patriots' defense has some major issues that were exposed against the Bills this past weekend. With that being said, they're still an elite offense, and Drake Maye has been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL this season. I'm a bit surprised they're set as 2.5-point underdogs against a Ravens team that continues to underwhelm. Sure, they beat up on a spiraling Bengals team last week, but the Patriots are several steps above Cincinnati in class.

The Ravens are 14th in overall DVOA, 19th in EPA per play, and 14th in opponent EPA per play. Let's stop treating the Ravens like they're an elite team that has just suffered from some bad luck this season. They're an above-average team at best, and the Patriots will be able to hang with them.

TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD (+115) – Peter Dewey

If you’re looking to bet on a running back to score on Sunday night, Henderson is a great value at +115: 

Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson has seven touchdowns over his last five games, scoring multiple times in three of those matchups.

He’s coming off a two-score game against Buffalo in Week 15, and he should be able to take advantage of a Ravens defense that is allowing 4.2 yards per carry this season. Baltimore has also allowed 13 rushing touchdowns in 2025.

Henderson has become the lead back for the Patriots over Rhamondre Stevenson, and he’s a big-play threat whenever he touches the ball. ​​Since Week 8, he’s played 61.5 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and has run for 620 yards and six scores on 100 carries (6.2 yards per carry). He also has 18 catches for 113 yards and a score.

I love getting Henderson at plus money to score since the Patriots’ passing game has been tough to predict in the 2025 campaign. 

Drake Maye OVER 242.5 Passing Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey

This line is a little low for Drake Maye, even though he’s coming off one of his worst games throwing the ball this season:

This season, Drake Maye has thrown for 243 or more yards in 10 of his 14 appearances, yet oddsmakers aren’t buying him against this Baltimore secondary.

I believe that’s a mistake.

Maye only threw for 155 yards against Buffalo in Week 15, but he’s been terrific as a passer this season, completing 70.9 percent of his passes for 3,567 yards and 23 scores. He’s also only been picked seven times (averaging 0.5 per game). 

The Ravens rank just 19th in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season, and they’ve allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league overall. I think Maye is a no-brainer bet on Sunday night. 

Derrick Henry OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

Derrick Henry only needed 11 carries to reach the 100-yard mark in Week 15, and he’s worth a look against this New England defense: 

Derrick Henry doesn't have the easiest matchup on Sunday night, but the Patriots are 17th in NFL in EPA/Rush despite allowing just 4.1 yards per carry this season.

Henry has six games with at least 80 rushing yards this season, including his last two appearances where he’s totaled 194 yards on just 36 carries. 

The Ravens are going to lean on their star running back in this game, as Lamar Jackson has been up and down throwing the ball in 2025. Henry already has 1,125 rushing yards this season and is still averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry.

He’s worth a bet to hit his season average on Sunday night.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.