BamaCentral 22 for '22: Five Alabama Over/Unders for the Coming Season
After falling one win short of adding a 19th national title last season, Alabama will look to rebound and take the next step this year. The Crimson Tide returns a loaded roster, including reigning Heisman winner Bryce Young and a rebuilt offense as well as one of the most talented defenses in the Nick Saban era.
Alabama will open its season on Sept. 3 when it hosts Utah State inside Bryant-Denny Stadium. To help pass the time, BamaCentral’s Joey Blackwell, Tony Tsoukalas and Katie Windham will discuss 22 topics and questions concerning the 2022 season.
Today we continue our series by coming up with five over/under scenarios for the coming season.
Bryce Young passing yards: 5,000
Blackwell’s take: If Bryce Young has a 5,000-yard season, he’d have remarkably high odds to win back-to-back Heisman Trophies. With those odds stacked against him, I’m taking the under here. (UNDER)
Tsoukalas’ take: This is a tough one for me without seeing how Alabama is going to run the ball. I’m going to go with no for a few reasons. First, I expect Alabama’s running game to be improved, and that will inevitably take some of last year’s passing yards away from Young. Second, I think the Crimson Tide will need to get Jalen Milroe as much reps as it can in order to build up his experience as the next man up behind center. Given Alabama’s easy schedule, I don’t think Young will stay in games long enough to reach the 5,000-yard mark. (UNDER)
Windham’s take: Even though Young got close last year, Alabama has never had a 5,000-yard passer. Only one player in all of college football has accomplished that feat over the last two seasons (Bailey Zappe from Western Kentucky.) Young is capable of putting up those type of numbers, but for some of the reasons previously mentioned, I don't think Alabama will need him to produce those kind of numbers. (UNDER)
Alabama 800-yard rushers: 1.5
Blackwell’s take: Last season, Brian Robinson Jr. was the only Crimson Tide running back to record over 800 yards. However, the talent-heavy backfield was riddled with injuries, giving Robinson an increased workload. This season shows promise, with transfer Jahmyr Gibbs and returners Jace McClellan, Roydell Williams and Trey Sanders all poised to split the load. It’s certainly a talented backfield, which is why I’m confident that two backs will emerge ahead. (OVER)
Tsoukalas’ take: Alabama might not have a bell-cow back, but its running back room is as loaded as any in the nation. All six of the Crimson Tide’s scholarship backs were rated in the top 100 of their recruiting classes. While Alabama won’t be able to spread carries around to each of them, the distribution should be a lot more even than it was in recent years.
Alabama had three 800-yard rushers in 2016 as Damien Harris, Jalen Hurts and Bo Scarbrough reached the mark. The following year, Hurts and Harris reached the mark again. Alabama nearly made it three years in a row in 2018 when Damien Harris rushed for 876 yards and Najee Harris finished with 783 yards on the ground.
I’m not sure which two backs will achieve the feat this year, but I think it gets done. (OVER)
Windham’s take: Looking at Alabama's depth at running back, my initial reaction was yes. However, as Tony mentioned, the last time it happened with two running backs was 2016. Alabama's passing offense wasn't near as prolific under Jalen Hurts as it is under Bryce Young. Even though Alabama will have plenty of options at running back, I'm not quite sure there will be an equal enough distribution between the passing and running game for the Crimson Tide to have two rushers go over 800 yards. (UNDER)
Will Anderson Jr. sacks: 15
Blackwell’s take: Anderson completed his freshman season with seven total sacks and followed it up with a monstrous sophomore campaign that saw the edge rusher record 17.5. With the difficulties that the Alabama offensive line had containing him this spring (which led to him being sidelined during the second half of the A-Day Game), he’s poised for another great season. However, he’s also having to compete alongside Dallas Turner, who’s looking to also have a big year. (UNDER)
Tsoukalas’ take: I know opposing offenses are going to give Anderson more attention. I also know his numbers run of the risk of dropping a bit as Dallas Turner continues to emerge. I just don’t care. I’m not betting against the best player in college football. (OVER)
Windham’s take: Will Anderson Jr. is a man on a mission. In a recent interview with Paul Finebaum, the junior linebacker said winning the Heisman trophy is on his goals list for the season. In order to win the Heisman as a defensive player, Anderson will have to put up big sack numbers once again, and I think he'll do it. (OVER)
Alabama’s punting average: 40.0 yards
Blackwell’s take: Burnip finished the 2021 season with a punting average of 39.13 yards on 48 punts. At A-Day, he had a solid game with an average of 43.5 yards on six punts. Punting shouldn’t be a problem this year. (OVER)
Tsoukalas’ take: Alabama hasn’t averaged 40 yards per punt since JK Scott’s final season in 2017. While Burnip seems to be improving, I’m still going to take the under here. Alabama’s offense is going to drive down the field a lot this season. Even following stalled drives, the Crimson Tide will more often than not be looking for situational punts rather than distance. (UNDER)
Windham’s take: Alabama was dead last in the SEC last season in punting average at 38.33 yards per punt. Every other team averaged at least 41 yards a punt. The Crimson Tide rarely has had to rely on its punting the last few years, but when Alabama has needed a punt to flip the field, it has been a struggle. The trend since 2017 would suggest that Alabama will not average more than 40 yards a punt; however, when looking at the rest of the SEC and Burnip entering his second year, I'm going to say this is the year the script flips. (OVER)
Alabama’s regular-season wins: 11.5
Blackwell’s take: No doubt about it, finishing the regular season a perfect 12-0 is no easy feat — especially in an SEC gauntlet. That being said, Alabama returns the Heisman Trophy winner along with what might just be the best defense in college football. When looking at the schedule, it’s hard to pick a perfect season. Just as difficult, though, is picking a team that Alabama could lose to. (OVER)
Tsoukalas’ take: It’s hard to predict perfect, but I just don’t see a loss on Alabama’s regular-season schedule. This has the potential to be one of the best units Nick Saban has ever put together. If the Crimson Tide is going to stumble this season, I think it’s going to have to be in the College Football Playoff. (OVER)
Windham’s take: Alabama only went undefeated in the regular season in two of Nick Saban's first nine seasons in Tuscaloosa (2008 and 2009.) However, the Crimson Tide has done it three times in the last six seasons, all in even years when Alabama has Auburn and Texas A&M at home and LSU, Tennessee and Ole Miss on the road (2016, 2018 and 2020.) Saban would likely think this is rat poison, but I am going to have to take the over, meaning Alabama again has an undefeated regular season. (OVER)
Previous Questions
Which Alabama Transfer Will Have the Best Season?
Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
Which Alabama Records Will Bryce Young Break This Season?
Jake Crandall-USA TODAY NETWORK
Who Will Alabama's Team Captains Be This Season?
Alabama Athletics
Who are Alabama's Three Biggest Rivals?
Alabama Athletics
Is there a Trap Game on Alabama's Schedule?
Alabama Athletics
What is Alabama’s Biggest Strength for the Coming Season?
Katie Windham- BamaCentral
What is Alabama’s Biggest Weakness for the Coming Season?
Photo | Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK
How many First-Round Picks will Alabama have in the 2023 NFL Draft?
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Who is the Best Player Alabama will Face this Season?
Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
Who will be Alabama's Breakout Star this Season?
Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
