It only makes sense that Derrick Henry will likely have a statistical regression this season.
Last season the former Heisman Trophy winner at Alabama joined an elite group of running backs when he became just the eighth player in NFL history to run for 2,000 yards in a season.
So how many of the first seven were able to do it again? None.
Henry leading the NFL in rushing for the second consecutive season was rare by itself. The last player to do it was former San Diego Chargers running back LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006 and 2007.
He's just the 10th player since 1953 to lead the league back-to-back. Earl Campbell, the franchise's all-time leading rusher, led the NFL in three consecutive seasons (1978-1980), which was matched by Dallas Cowboys running back Emmitt Smith (1991-1993).
Buffalo Bills running back O.J. Simpson had two back-to-back stints (1972-1973, 1975-1976).
Henry could obviously do it again, but history tells us that it's unlikely. Consequently, Sports Illustrated’s Michael Fabiano warns fantasy football players about drafting the Titans rusher in the top five of fantasy drafts.
Fabiano also wrote that a trend to keep an eye on is the “Curse of 370,” which suggests a running back with 370 or more touches in a single season will see a statistical decline the following year. Since 2010, there have been 13 such instances (including Henry’s 397 last season).
In the previous 12, the player’s stats fell (sometimes significantly) nine times (75 percent).
Henry also has a new offensive coordinator and the Titans recently traded for Julio Jones, although both of those additions could help or limit his rushing numbers.
But if anyone could it ....
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