Bama Central

The Extra Point: Could Derrick Henry Have a Major Regression After 2,000-Yard Season?

History isn't on the side of the Tennessee Titans running back when it comes to trying to match his landmark rushing numbers from 2020.
Christopher Walsh|
The Extra Point: Could Derrick Henry Have a Major Regression After 2,000-Yard Season?
The Extra Point: Could Derrick Henry Have a Major Regression After 2,000-Yard Season?

It only makes sense that Derrick Henry will likely have a statistical regression this season. 

Last season the former Heisman Trophy winner at Alabama joined an elite group of running backs when he became just the eighth player in NFL history to run for 2,000 yards in a season.

So how many of the first seven were able to do it again? None. 

Henry leading the NFL in rushing for the second consecutive season was rare by itself.  The last player to do it was former San Diego Chargers running back LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006 and 2007.

He's just the 10th player since 1953 to lead the league back-to-back. Earl Campbell, the franchise's all-time leading rusher, led the NFL in three consecutive seasons (1978-1980), which was matched by Dallas Cowboys running back Emmitt Smith (1991-1993).

Buffalo Bills running back O.J. Simpson had two back-to-back stints (1972-1973, 1975-1976).

Henry could obviously do it again, but history tells us that it's unlikely. Consequently, Sports Illustrated’s Michael Fabiano warns fantasy football players about drafting the Titans rusher in the top five of fantasy drafts.

Fabiano also wrote that a trend to keep an eye on is the “Curse of 370,” which suggests a running back with 370 or more touches in a single season will see a statistical decline the following year. Since 2010, there have been 13 such instances (including Henry’s 397 last season). 

In the previous 12, the player’s stats fell (sometimes significantly) nine times (75 percent).

Henry also has a new offensive coordinator and the Titans recently traded for Julio Jones, although both of those additions could help or limit his rushing numbers.  

But if anyone could it  .... 

The Extra Point is a regular weekday feature on BamaCentral+, and often includes video and other elements from our FanNation parters. Other recent segments include:

Has Jerry Jeudy Turned a Corner with the Broncos?

After 10 Years With Matt Ryan, Julio Jones is Figuring Out Ryan Tannehill

The Extra Point: What Does Mark Ingram II Bring to the Texans?

Steelers Had to Tell Najee Harris to Tone Things Down

Alvin Kamara Becoming A Dual-Sport Influencer

Derrick Henry Happy to Have Julio Jones as a Titans Teammate

Where Are They Now: Former Alabama Defensive Line Coach Chris Rumph

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Christopher Walsh
CHRISTOPHER WALSH

Christopher Walsh is the founder and publisher of Alabama Crimson Tide On SI, which first published as BamaCentral in 2018, and is also the publisher of the Boston College, Missouri and Vanderbilt sites . He's covered the Crimson Tide since 2004 and is the author of 27 books including “100 Things Crimson Tide Fans Should Know and Do Before They Die” and “Nick Saban vs. College Football.” He's an eight-time honoree of Football Writers Association of America awards and three-time winner of the Herby Kirby Memorial Award, the Alabama Sports Writers Association’s highest writing honor for story of the year. In 2022, he was named one of the 50 Legends of the ASWA. Previous beats include the Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, along with Major League Baseball’s Arizona Diamondbacks. Originally from Minnesota and a graduate of the University of New Hampshire, he currently resides in Tuscaloosa.

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