How Would a 24-Team Playoff Affect Alabama?

MOUNTAIN BROOK, Ala. — The 24-team College Football Playoff feels inevitable.

That is the takeaway from SEC commissioner Greg Sankey's words at SEC Tipoff, the conference's basketball media day, where he was asked about where he currently stands on the expanded format.

"I think I've always communicated that we've never said no that that won't happen that won't be a point of support," Sankey said. "We go back to my last media day visit, which would have been in Tampa (in July), identified the considerations around media interest, around where the games are played, around impact on the regular season, noting that's a judgment that has to be made. But we've worked through and continue to consider and work through those issues. I think there's an openness to playoff expansion on our part, I certainly think there's an openness."

The conversations are currently happening behind the scenes, as television networks, namely ESPN, are submitting proposals and working through the logistics of an event that would feature a whopping 23 games. The NCAA has already laid the groundwork with the announcement that the season will move up a week, starting in 2027. Sankey won't commit to anything until it is finalized, but it's clear that progress is being made.

"Attitudes change over time, and perspectives change, and so we'll see where that leads us from a final decision standpoint," Sankey said. "But going through and trying to remember metrics and analytics and predictives that may have come from that is probably incredibly boring, I'd be mostly wrong, but I think, in general, we have achieved some of the progress we'd expect on scheduling commitments."

The structure of the regular season would fundamentally transform under 24 teams. The format would also change the barometer for success for top schools.

Alabama is a program that expects to make the 12-team playoff every year, and making it directly constitutes a successful season. There are still absolutely national championship aspirations, and the team would in no way be satisfied with regular first and second-round exits, but, ultimately, making the playoff currently equates to a 10-win season, meaning the Crimson Tide has upheld the standard of an elite college football team.

The picture is murkier at 24 teams. It's hard to envision Kalen DeBoer's program, which has not fallen out of the AP Top 25 since 2007, ever missing a 24-team playoff. So there would have to be a new benchmark. Does Alabama have to earn a first-round bye as a top-eight team? Do the Crimson Tide need to win one, two, three games in the playoff to maintain its standing in the upper echelon of the college football world?

There have been multiple three-loss teams in the top-24 of the post-conference championship AP Poll every year this decade, with eight four-loss teams making the cut since 2020. Not only is the margin for error so much larger, but the level of competition is significantly lower. As the nine-seed last year, the Crimson Tide played Oklahoma in an electric road playoff game between two teams that legitimately believed they could win the title.

In a 24-team projection based on the polls, Alabama would've hosted North Texas last year. In 2024, Syracuse. That is entirely different from what exists right now.

These conversations are still months away from becoming reality, but it's hard to imagine a world where they don't. The SEC is at the forefront of the college football world, and Sankey has made his position clear.

"We'll see if we can finalize those across the nation," Sankey said. "Go from there, and make some final decisions probably sooner rather than later, in my expectation."

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