Bama Central

Why Alabama Basketball Will Not Make The Sweet 16: Just a Minute

Alabama basketball is barreling towards its first early NCAA Tournament exit in four years.
Theodore Fernandez|
Jan 24, 2026; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats reacts to a no-call during the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Coleman Coliseum.
Jan 24, 2026; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats reacts to a no-call during the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Coleman Coliseum. | David Leong-Imagn Images

Welcome to BamaCentral’s "Just a Minute," a video series featuring BamaCentral's Alabama beat writers. Multiple times a week, the writers will group up to provide their take on a topic concerning the Crimson Tide or the landscape of college sports.

Alabama basketball is in the midst of its greatest period of success in program history. A program that had just one Elite Eight appearance entering the decade has been there in back-to-back seasons, with a Final Four banner to show for it.

There will be no third trip this season. In fact, Alabama will not even make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. This Crimson Tide team, while still insanely talented, has far too many flaws to overcome— flaws that will end the team's season early and create one of the most disappointing tournament exits of the Nate Oats era.

This video operates under the assumption that Alabama is able to get completely healthy, which is a tall task in itself for a team that has shown no ability to do that. It goes without saying that any injuries would only make the outcome of an early tournament exit even more likely. Regardless, rebounding will be what causes this season's ultimate downfall. Al

Oats has led the Crimson Tide to the NCAA Tournament in each of his past five seasons, only missing the dance in his first year at the helm. Alabama made it to the Sweet 16 in four of those five appearances, with the only exception being the 2021-22 team that was upset as a six-seed by Notre Dame in the first round.

Alabama is currently projected as a five-seed by most bracketologists, which would set the Crimson Tide up with a matchup against one of the best mid-majors in the nation. The five-twelve upset happens almost every year, and there have been two of them in each of the past two tournaments.

Alabama Crimson Tide On SI

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Theodore Fernandez
THEODORE FERNANDEZ

Theodore Fernandez is an intern with Alabama Crimson Tide On SI/BamaCentral and combined with his time with The Crimson White and WVUA 23 News has covered every Alabama sport across He also works as the play-by-play broadcaster for Alabama’s ACHA hockey team and has interned for Fox Sports.