Why Expanded NCAA Tournament Might Be ASU's Perfect Break

Arizona State could benefit from NCAA expansion, making a tournament run more realistic this season.

Mar 18, 2026; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Saint Mary's Gaels head coach Randy Bennett speaks to reporters during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Everyone’s talking about Arizona State’s new roster, the coaching change, and the Big 12 being stacked. But honestly, the biggest reason the Sun Devils could make the tournament this year isn’t even about them; it’s about the tournament itself getting bigger. And that matters way more than people think.

The NCAA is expected to expand the tournament from 68 to 76 teams. That might not sound like a huge jump at first, but it completely changes the conversation for teams like Arizona State.

Mar 19, 2026; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Saint Mary's (CA) Gaels forward Paulius Murauskas (23) dribbles the ball during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Instead of fighting for one of the last few spots, now there’s more room for solid, not perfect teams to get in. And Arizona State fits that category perfectly. They don’t have to be elite right away. They just have to be good enough. And in a conference like the Big 12, that’s actually realistic.

Mar 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Maurice Odum (5) celebrates with Anthony Johnson (2) against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Big 12 Isn’t As Stable As It Looks

Here’s where it gets interesting. Arizona State doesn’t need to dominate the Big 12 to make the tournament. They might not even need a winning conference record. If they can go around .500 and avoid bad losses, they’re going to be in the mix. That’s a huge deal.

In past years, that probably wouldn’t cut it. But with more teams getting in, the standard drops just enough to give a team like ASU a real shot.

Feb 28, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Maurice Odum (5) against the Utah Utes at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

And let’s be real, this team isn’t built to run through the Big 12 anyway. They’re built to compete, steal big wins, and stay consistent.

People see names like Houston, Kansas, and Arizona and assume the conference is impossible. But look closer, almost every top team is dealing with change. New rosters. New roles. Even new coaches, in some cases. That opens the door.

Mar 18, 2026; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Saint Mary's Gaels head coach Randy Bennett gives an interview prior to a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Arizona State doesn’t have to be better than everyone. They just have to be more stable than most. And with a structured coach like Randy Bennett, that’s actually a real advantage.

Jan 31, 2026; Spokane, Washington, USA; Saint Mary's Gaels head coach Randy Bennett looks on during a game against the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the first half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

This Roster Fits the Moment

What I like most about this team is how it’s built. It’s not flashy. It’s not full of 5-stars. But it makes sense. You’ve got wings who can defend and shoot, a couple of real scorers in Paulius Murauskas, and players who actually fit roles. That matters more than people admit.

This isn’t a team that’s going to beat itself. And in a long season, that’s how you stay in the tournament conversation.

Mar 21, 2025; Cleveland, OH, USA; St. Mary's Gaels head coach Randy Bennett reacts in the first half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Calling Arizona State a tournament team right now might sound early, but it’s not crazy. The expanded field changes everything. The Big 12 is more open than usual. And the roster actually fits what they need to do. They don’t have to be great. They just have to be steady. And this year, that might be enough.