Baylor falls to First Four game versus conference rival in latest bracketology projections

While Baylor is winning on the court, the experts aren't taking the Bears seriously.

Iowa State Cyclones forward Brandton Chatfield (33) rebounds the ball around Baylor Bears forward Josh Ojianwuna (17) during the first half in the NCAA men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025, in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With Christmas Day just over a week away, the college basketball season is nearing the end of non-conference play and teams are jockeying to improve their resume for the NCAA tournament.

Every Tuesday morning, ESPN’s resident bracketologist Joe Lunardi releases his latest projections for the NCAA tournament bracket. Over the past month of these projected brackets, the Baylor Bears (7-2) have been comfortably in the tournament as a #7, #8 or #10 seed. The latest iteration has Baylor on the brink of not making the Big Dance as they are one of the last four teams in and would have to win a play-in game in the First Four against conference rival Arizona State (9-2). Baylor hosts the Sun Devils on February 21st at 4 p.m. and the winner of the game would be the #11 seed in the East region.

If Baylor can advance past Arizona State, they would face #6 seed Virginia (9-1). Both games would be played in Tampa, so travel would play a role for Baylor. The projected East region bracket goes as listed (by seed number): Duke, UConn, Alabama, Houston, Nebraska, Virginia, Iowa, Utah State, Ohio State, Saint Louis, Baylor or Arizona State, Akron, East Tennessee State, Lipscomb, Troy and Colgate. Six of those previously mentioned teams are currently in the AP Top 25 with Duke at #1, UConn at #5, Houston at #8, Nebraska at #15, Alabama at #16 and Virginia at #23.

Baylor has a home-and-home with Houston, they will host the Cougars in Waco on January 10th and will travel to Houston on March 4th. As it currently stands, Baylor has nine projected tournament teams on their schedule, predominantly in Big 12 play. The nine teams are (rankings are from AP Poll) #22 St. John’s (lost by 15 on 11/25), #1 Arizona, #4 Iowa State, #8 Houston, #10 BYU, #11 Louisville, #17 Kansas, #19 Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The Big 12 sits atop the leaderboard with the Big Ten at 10 teams each projected to make the tournament followed by the SEC with nine teams and the ACC with eight.

Baylor has a busy weekend upcoming with home games against Alcorn State (1-9) and Southern (4-6) on Friday and Sunday respectively. Their final non-conference game will be next Monday when they host Arlington Baptist. Baylor’s first Big 12 game will be at TCU (7-3) on January 3rd.

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