Five Key Games For The Remainder of Baylor Basketball's Season

These five games could determine if Baylor gets into the NCAA Tournament or not.
Feb 4, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA;  Baylor Bears guard Cameron Carr (43) drives to the basket past Colorado Buffaloes guard Josiah Sanders (5) during the first half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion.
Feb 4, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Cameron Carr (43) drives to the basket past Colorado Buffaloes guard Josiah Sanders (5) during the first half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

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After starting 10-2 and having a freshman and a sophomore leading the team in points, Baylor fans had good hope going into conference play. But the Bears have continued to struggle during conference play, winning just three of the last 10, getting the last two from their previous wins. With only nine games till conference tournaments start, Baylor is looking to make a turn for their season. Here are five key games that can help the Bears' chances going into March.

Back-To-Back Tough Ranked Games

After facing a fire-hot Iowa State team, they will be back home to take on the 16th-ranked BYU Cougars. BYU is coming off three tough losses, two of them against ranked opponents. This is a team that had high praise to start the year. Freshman AJ Dybantsa continues to look unbelievable and gets better every game. This will be Baylor's first meeting with the Cougars this year. Baylor has lost its last two against BYU and looks to add to their resume going on to the end of the year

BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) shoots over Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Christian Coleman (4)
Feb 4, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) shoots over Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Christian Coleman (4) during the second half at Gallagher-Iba Arena. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Focus Required With Three Ranked Games in a Row

If you thought two consecutive ranked games were tough, Baylor's schedule doesn't ease up. They will be at home to face 24th-ranked Louisville on Valentine's Day at 8 PM CT. Louisville is a strong six-loss team, having lost to Duke twice, Virginia, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Safe to say this is a tested Louisville team that has played some of the best teams this year. This is a team that is going to fight until the last second and won't sit down after an early beat up. It will take a full 100% effort for all 40 minutes to keep it close and take smart shots.

Adrian Wooley (14) steals the ball from Eastern Michigan Eagles guard Carlos Hart
Louisville Cardinals guard Adrian Wooley (14) steals the ball from Eastern Michigan Eagles guard Carlos Hart (2) in the second half. The Cards beat the Eagles 87-46 Monday night, Nov. 24, 2025 at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Can The Bears Take Down The Kings of The Big 12????

Depending on how the first three ranked games go for Baylor, this game can be MASSIVE for tournament implications. Arizona still currently sits at the top of the basketball rankings, going 22-0 with six ranked wins, two of them coming out of the top five. By the time they face, which is February 24th at 8 pm CT, Arizona will have played four more ranked games, so depending on how those go, we will see what Arizona will have for Baylor after having a tough run the next few weeks. If Baylor can win a few of these games and have a good close battle with the best team in the country, you got a good chance of getting a comfortable seed in the tournament.

Arizona Wildcats forward Koa Peat (10) screams as he slam dunks the ball against the Arizona State Sun Devils
Jan 31, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Koa Peat (10) screams as he slam dunks the ball against the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second half at Desert Financial Arena. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Top 10 Opponent As End of the Year Test

With the second-to-last game of the year, Baylor will take on the eighth-ranked Houston Cougars on March 4th (8 PM CT). Houston is another dominant Big 12 team whose only two losses are to 12th-ranked Texas Tech and 17th-ranked Tennessee. This will be a key game going into the conference tournaments and potentially March Madness to get a good win and feel confident. Houston will have played Kansas, Iowa State, and Arizona by this time, and we assume that they will still be a three or four-loss team at the end of the year. Major challenge for the Bears, as last time was a beat down, losing by 22 and scoring just 55.

Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson talks to guard Isiah Harwell
Feb 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson talks to guard Isiah Harwell (1) in the second half against the UCF Knights at Fertitta Center. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Road Battle Against A Questionable UCF Knight Team

With only four more ranked games this year, UCF is probably the next toughest team Baylor has to play. Having wins against Kansas and Texas Tech, UCF is a good team that has given multiple ranked teams good battles. They are led by Senior transfer guard Riley Kugel whose had fourteen 15-point games and shoots 40% from three this year. UCF has just come off a tough loss to Houston, losing 79-55, where UCF shot 31% as a team and gave up 42 points in the paint. This is a team that is good when they can get on a run, but can also struggle with floor shooting. If they play Baylor like the Houston, it shouldn't be a struggle, but when this team gets hot, they can create havoc.

UCF Knights guard Riley Kugel (2) drives against Houston Cougars guard Milos Uzan (7)
Feb 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; UCF Knights guard Riley Kugel (2) drives against Houston Cougars guard Milos Uzan (7) in the first half at Fertitta Center. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

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Tyler Gillum
TYLER GILLUM

Tyler is a writer for Baylor Bears On SI with a deep focus on football and basketball. Professional stat cruncher and high school athlete. Passionate NFL, college, and NBA fan. I love sports and want to put that passion into my writing.

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