Forecasting Baylor's Path to the NCAA Tournament

Baylor's path to the NCAA Tournament is not impossible, but they certainly have their work cut out for them. Here is a look at what they'll need to do in their final six games to get into the dance.

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The Baylor Bears have nobody to blame but themselves for the position that they are in right now. They are near the bottom of the Big 12, and have been positively dreadful since conference play began.

They had a chance to build some momentum after winning consecutive games against West Virginia and Colorado, but dropped a close game to Iowa State in their most recent chance for a statement win.

Now, they have six games remaining. At 13-12, and 3-9 in conference play, they may not have to win out to make the NCAA Tournament, but they’ll have to make a few statement wins along the way.

Here are the games that Baylor absolutely must win in order to make a run into the big dance in March.

The Layups

There’s no such thing as an easy game in the Big 12, and with the way Baylor has played this season, they cannot afford to take any team lightly. That being said, Kansas State, Baylor’s opponent on Tuesday night is 1-11 in conference play, and just fired its head coach. They are in disarray. This has to be a game that Baylor wins convincingly.

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Their final game of the season also comes against Utah, who is tied for last in the conference with Kansas State. That could be a final chance at a confidence boosting win before the Big 12 tournament.

Evenly Matched

Arizona State is Baylor’s next opponent after they take on the Kansas State Wildcats. They are neck and neck with Baylor in conference play at 4-8 on the season thus far.

UCF is the other team on a similar level to Baylor at 6-6 in conference play. These are two games Baylor should be able to win if they play well.

The Big Dogs

The biggest chances at a statement this season come with the two premier opponents left on the schedule. Baylor will play Arizona, who was recently ranked #1 in the country, and Houston who is currently #2 in the country behind Michigan.

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They’ll play Arizona in Waco, but have to travel to Houston for their game against Kelvin Sampson’s crew.

Baylor has had multiple chances this season to knock off a premier opponent, but faltered each time they had a chance at a statement win. Iowa State was the most recent example of that, but Baylor had a chance to knock off Kansas in January to extend a win streak and was ultimately blown out on the road.

The Path

Baylor’s simplest path to the tournament would be winning both games against Houston and Arizona as statements while beating the two teams that are in the category of a layup.

How realistic is that? It feels unlikely that Baylor could string together two great games that it would take to knock off Arizona and Houston. That does not mean that they cannot make the tournament without beating both teams, but it feels unlikely that they’ll be able to make the tournament if they drop both games against the premier opponents.

The best path for Baylor is for them to win five of their next six games. Win games against the two last place teams in the Big 12, knock off those teams in the middle of the Big 12, and split against the big teams.

If they can do that, while also grabbing another win or two in the conference tournament, that could be enough to earn them a glass slipper for the month of March.

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