2 Reasons Baylor Football Beats Colorado, 2 Reasons Bears Lose

Playcalling, Lagway's first home game, and Coach Prime will all have an effect on the Big 12 opener

Sep 12, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears linebacker Garrick Ponder | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bears are two-score favorites against the Buffaloes on Saturday, but it is a far cry from an easy win.

Anything can happen in a given Big 12 showdown, and Baylor vs. Colorado is no exception. Here are two reasons the Bears come out on top, along with two reasons they might not:

Baylor loses: playcalling disaster class

One of the keys for the Bears to punch the Buffs early is some aggressive playcalling, stretching out the field, and making the Colorado defense respect the long ball.

It's possible that offensive coordinator Jake Spavital plays a passive game, keeping the playcalling tight and not showing much of the book. While this isn't a terrible plan, it could allow Colorado to get some easy stops and hang around in the game for too long.

Sep 19, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If it comes down to the final drives, Dave Aranda has historically had questionable decision-making and clock management, and it's not a good recipe against a team that has already had some late-game heroics against the Bears in 2024.

Baylor wins: crowd rallies behind Lagway early

Most Baylor fans have yet to see DJ Lagway in person and will be fired up to watch their big offseason addition on the field.

While uncompetitive games and intense heat dwindle down the crowd after halftime, it's a rowdy bunch early on. Bears have had anticlimactic starts to all of their games so far; a quick touchdown on the first possession would help Lagway settle back in and take care of business.

Baylor loses: Coach Prime has Baylor's number

Sep 21, 2024; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deon Sanders walks on the field before the game against the Baylor Bears at Folsom Field. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Football teams lose games they aren't supposed to lose. Some coaches have other teams figured out. That seemed to be the case in the last edition of Coach Aranda vs. Coach Sanders; it's possible that it still is the case.

Baylor was up a touchdown with 40 seconds left and had the Buffaloes on the 50-yard line; the Bears lost. This isn't the same Colorado team, and it isn't the same Baylor team, but Sanders is coaching for his job and it's the type of game Aranda has had the tendency to drop.

Baylor wins: they play their brand

Baylor's brand of football this season has been playing sound defense and letting the offensive weapons perform. The Bears will try to stick to that formula and make the Buffs have their best performance of the season to sneak out a win.

Colorado will be playing with a fire under them, but a solid Baylor defense, a (mostly) healthy Lagway, and the Texas heat will prove a tall task for the Buffs to overcome. The Bears keep playing like they have, and it will earn them a 3-0 homestand.

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