Inside The Bears

3 Reasons why Baylor could make the College Football Playoff in 2025

Mapping the pathway where the Bears could reach the pinnacle of the college football landscape this season

Josh Crawford

National championship trophy residing in Waco
National championship trophy residing in Waco / Via: Azcentral
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Baylor hasn’t reached the college football playoff since its creation over ten years ago, but 2025 presents a rare alignment of opportunity, roster strength, and schedule favorability. While plenty of things must break right for the Bears, there’s a clear, realistic path to the postseason if they seize their chances. Between marquee early games, a defense bolstered by impact transfers, and an offense that looks like one of the nation’s most dynamic, Baylor enters the fall with a ceiling higher than most outside Waco might expect -- as long as these three things can happen

1. Opportunities on the Schedule

Baylor’s case for the playoff will be made quickly. The Bears open at home in Week 1 against Auburn, a national stage-setting game that could instantly reshape perceptions if they leave McLane Stadium with a win. That’s followed by a Week 2 trip to SMU — not only a playoff participant in 2024, but one of the rising powers in the new-look college football landscape. A victory there would give Baylor a second signature résumé piece, while, if they stumble, the fact that it’s tucked into an 11 AM window on The CW would minimize the national damage.

The opportunities don’t stop there. In Week 4, Arizona State — the defending Big 12 champion — comes to Waco. A home win over the Sun Devils would provide a third pillar to a playoff résumé before October even begins. From there, the conference slate breaks about as favorably as possible. Both Kansas State and Utah, two of the toughest opponents in the league, have to come to McLane. If Baylor takes care of business at home, it’s not hard to imagine a double-digit win season and a playoff résumé built on three or more high-profile victories.

2. Dave's Defense Takes A Leap

With the window of opportunity that Baylor’s schedule provides, the defense must take a step forward — and all the pieces are there for it to happen. The transfer portal injected immediate impact into every level of the unit. Travion Barnes, who racked up over 100 tackles at FIU last year, pairs with returning star Keaton Thomas, a Bednarik Watch List member, to give the Bears one of the most complete linebacker duos in the country. Up front, transfers Matthew Fobbs-White (Tulane) and Emarion Winston (Oregon) provide the edge-rushing punch a team that totaled just 23 sacks a year ago desperately needed. Losing Steve Linton’s production hurts, but the duo’s arrival more than softens the blow. On the back end, Ohio State transfer Calvin Simpson-Hunt boosts a secondary that often lagged behind in 2024, while proven playmaker Caden Jenkins gets back to the form that made him a freshman All-American in 2022.

Even beyond the transfers, development from within adds to the optimism. Sophomore Levar Thornton breaks out, adding an infusion of youth to an older secondary, while Carl Williams IV (eventually) returns to 100%, bringing stability to the defensive front. Taken together, Baylor suddenly has the mix of experience, athleticism, and depth that was missing a season ago. Suppose this unit even makes a moderate leap. In that case, it transforms the Bears from a team that struggled to compete in conferences into one that can win consistently against playoff-caliber competition.

3. One of the Nation’s Most Dynamic Offenses

Of course, Baylor’s biggest selling point is its offense, which has the potential to rank among the most dynamic in the country. At quarterback, Sawyer Robertson looks poised to take the leap from promising starter to one of the conference’s elite. With a full offseason to prepare as QB1, he unlocks a new level in college football, solidifying his stock as a future NFL starter, supplanting Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt for first-team all-conference honors at quarterback. Behind him, the running game delivers both reliability and explosiveness. True freshman Caden Knighten becomes the breakout star he's looked bound to be since the spring, totaling more than 450 scrimmage yards and flashing the elite track speed that turned heads throughout camp. He provides the perfect complement to Bryson Washington, who gets back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and cements his status as one of the Big 12’s most productive backs.

What once looked like a liability in the wide receiver room becomes a strength in-season. Veterans Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins provide steady hands, while transfers Louis Brown IV (San Diego State), Kobe Prentice (Alabama,) and Kole Wilson (Texas State) bring explosiveness and versatility. Behind them, the young trio of Taz Williams, Jadon Porter, and Mason Dousett each flash the kind of big-play potential that makes defensive coordinators lose sleep. The result is an offense that can stress defenses vertically, horizontally, and forces opposing defensive coordinators to put more defensive backs on the field, lighting the box for Washington and Knighten.

The Bottom Line

For Baylor, the playoff path isn’t built on hypotheticals alone. The schedule does provide national-stage opportunities. The defense is reinforced with proven transfers and rising young talent. The offense has the firepower to score with anyone in the country. If Robertson takes the next step at quarterback and the Bears hold serve at home, 2025 could be remembered as the year Baylor didn’t just return to national relevance — but became a College Football Playoff team.

- Enjoy more Baylor Bears coverage on Baylor Bears On SI -

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Josh Crawford
JOSH CRAWFORD

Josh began covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Before this, he previously wrote for Syracuse men's basketball and football at SI from 2022-24. As a former Division I defensive lineman at Prairie View, Josh is passionate about storytelling from a former athlete's perspective. When he's not covering Baylor, he enjoys traveling, listening to podcasts and music, and loves cooking a good meal.

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