4 Reasons Baylor Beats the Horned Frogs, 4 Reasons Bears are Upset by TCU
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Both TCU and Baylor need this victory; TCU to salvage their season, and Baylor to keep their win streak and Big 12 title aspirations alive. Historically, TCU and HC Sonny Dykes have had Baylor and HC Dave Aranda's number (with Aranda being 2-4 against TCU), but the past is history and this year is a different Bears team than in years past.
Will this game come down to the wire or be over by halftime and who will be standing tall at the end? I believe the following factors will heavily influence the outcome of Blackout on the Brazos this Saturday night.
Baylor Wins If: Gavin Freeman Gets Freaky
Just because we need to see Gavin Freeman’s highlight play again.#SicEm pic.twitter.com/eUAbHw5DVT
— Baylor Bears On SI (@BaylorBearsOnSI) September 28, 2026
Gavin Freeman is a bonafide stud on this Baylor offense, and is near the top of all stat categories for wide receivers, not just in the Big 12, but in all of college football. Expect Freeman to get targeted early and often in this game. String together solid receptions, move the ball down the field, break a tackle (or just hurdle right over the top of it), and Freeman's high-octane and high-volume play could lead to early scoring and pose a threat all game long to the TCU defense.
Freeman is dangerous in open space with the ball, difficult to cover due to his speed, and a deep threat against one-on-one coverage.
Baylor Loses If: TCU's Defense is Legit
Let's be honest, early season opponents aren't necessarily the best barometer of how a team will perform against stiffer competition. However, TCU just held Bear Bachmeier and BYU's offense to only 17 points in their game against one another. Not to mention that TCU's defense is only allowing 13.4 points per game this season on an average and may be the toughest defensive line that Baylor has faced all year.
Baylor Wins If: Big Plays Break the Game Open
The Bears offense was ignited against ASU by a Ryelan Morris 63 yard touchdown run after having gone 3-and-out on their first drive of the game. Baylor's offense is loaded with players with "big play" potential, and throughout their season thus far they've demonstrated that each game. Either a deep pass touchdown, a short completion leading to a long YAC touchdown, or a long running play that scores; Baylor breaks TCU's defense if they're able to produce big plays.
Baylor Loses If: The Run Game Gets Stuffed
Between Dawson Pendergrass, Caden Knighten, Michael Turner, and true freshman standout Ryelan Morris, there's no lack of depth at the running back position. However, if Baylor's offensive line can't open up gaps against the Horned Frog defense, the running game is going to be difficult to establish. The Bears O-line vs. the TCU D-line is the true battle of this game, and the winner of that stands the better chance of winning this game.
Baylor Wins If: DJ Lagway has a Repeat Performance From the ASU Game
🟩 306 Passing Yards
— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) October 5, 2026
🟩 5 Total Touchdowns@DerekLagway ➡️ @Big12Conference Offensive Player of the Week pic.twitter.com/dN9IlJoG91
Purely by the numbers, if DJ Lagway throws for 300+ yards, 4 touchdowns, and runs for another score against TCU (all without turning the ball over once), there's little reason to doubt Baylor's chances of winning that hypothetical.
Coach Aranda said that Lagway is healthy and ready to go for this week, and that the O-line is healthy as well during his Media Availability on Monday, both the best kind of news to deliver. TCU's defense hasn't given up very many passing yards to anyone this season, but Lagway's quick passes and decision-making could disrupt their coverage schemes enough to find opportunity.
Baylor Loses If: DJ Lagway throws 2+ Interceptions
One INT during the game, those can happen; two or more, however, could spell disaster for Baylor. DJ Lagway shows a lot of confidence in his arm and I believe that he believes he can make every throw on the field. I don't doubt his accuracy, but the issue is that it doesn't matter if he throws it right to the numbers of (just as an example) Jadon Porter's jersey if a TCU player happens to grab it out of the air. Lagway has shown a tendency to not be afraid to try to squeeze a ball through coverage, and that might cost him in this game.
Baylor Wins If: Every Bear Does Their 1/11th
A mantra all season long is for everyone to "do their 1/11th." If every member of the offense or defense is doing exactly what their portion of the whole is, the whole is complete. "A complete game of complementary football" sounds like coach-speak 101, but there's a reason why that fundamental aspect of this team game is so important; it works. The Bears have a four-game winning streak coming into this game, control their own destiny in the Big 12, and will be looking to continue their momentum by adding another win to the column.
Baylor Loses If: TCU's Desperation Fuels Their Offense
TCU is 2-3 and not exactly having the year they were expected to have, "desperation mode" may be initiated on the Horned Frogs front. It's not that TCU doesn't have talented players, but are sitting behind .500 and staring down the chances of a season without a bowl game at the end of it. Backed into a corner though, is there still fight in the Horned Frogs? If there is, Baylor could end up on the wrong end of a rude awakening.
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Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.
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