Bowl Projections: Who Baylor Football is Predicted to Play Entering Week 6

After dominating Arizona State, here is who Baylor could play in a bowl game.

Baylor Bears wide receiver Gavin Freeman celebrates after a touchdown against the Auburn Tigers in the fourth quarter. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Baylor Bears are now 4-1 on the season after cruising past Arizona State on Saturday, 55-19. The Bears put together their best offensive performance of the season, finishing with 564 total yards and seven offensive touchdowns in the 36-point road win.

DJ Lagway led the way with 306 passing yards and five total touchdowns, including four through the air. The Bears also got a much-needed spark from the running game, with Caden Knighten and Ryelan Morris each breaking off touchdown runs of more than 60 yards.

Ahead of Week 6 action, here is where the Bears are projected to land in the latest bowl predictions.

ESPN

Oct 3, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons (13) looks to throw in the third quarter against the Florida Gators at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN's two bowl experts landed on the same destination for Baylor, but with different opponents.

Kyle Bonagura — AutoZone Liberty Bowl: vs. Missouri

Mark Schlabach — AutoZone Liberty Bowl: vs. Oklahoma

Missouri improved to 4-1 with a 45-17 win over then-No. 8 Florida on Saturday, generating 551 total yards. Austin Simmons threw for 340 yards, while Jamal Roberts added 211 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

That could set up a high-scoring matchup in Memphis. Lagway showed against Arizona State what the Bears' offense can look like when he's efficient and protects the football, and keeping pace with a Missouri offense coming off its best performance of the season could require more of the same.

Oklahoma presents a different challenge. The Sooners were off in Week 5 and sit at 2-2 ahead of their Red River matchup with No. 1 Texas. Their most recent outing, a 41-13 loss to Georgia, was made considerably worse by four turnovers that led to 17 points.

Oklahoma’s defense would provide a tough test for a Baylor offense that finally found its rhythm against Arizona State. It would also revive an old Big 12 matchup just three seasons after the Sooners left for the SEC.

On3

Mississippi State quarterback Parker “Billy” Puckett (15) passes the ball during a college football game between Mississippi State and Alabama at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., on Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026. Alabama defeated Mississippi State 56-23. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

On3 also sends Baylor to face an SEC opponent, this time without leaving Texas.

Kinder’s Texas Bowl: vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State suffered its first loss Saturday, falling 56-23 to Alabama after a 4-0 start.

The pairing could favor Baylor through the air. Alabama threw for 304 yards against the Bulldogs, while Lagway just threw for 306 yards and four touchdowns against Arizona State. With Gavin Freeman established as his top target and several other receivers contributing, Baylor has plenty of options in the passing game.

The other side may be just as important. Baylor has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season, so a Texas Bowl meeting could hinge on whether the Bears can continue keeping opponents out of the end zone.

College Football News

Oct 3, 2026; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers tight end Luke Lindenmeyer (8) and running back Vincent Genatone (30) celebrate after a touchdown against the Maryland Terrapins during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

College Football News has Baylor heading west to meet an undefeated Big Ten team.

Cactus Bowl: vs. Nebraska

Nebraska moved to 5-0 with a 48-23 victory over Maryland on Saturday, scoring the final 34 points after falling behind 23-14.

Anthony Colandrea would give Baylor plenty to account for. The Nebraska quarterback threw for 238 yards and three touchdowns against Maryland while rushing for another 108, putting pressure on defenses with both his arm and legs.

There could be opportunities for Baylor offensively, too. Maryland gained 300 yards before halftime Saturday, but Nebraska held the Terrapins to just 95 after the break. The Bears, meanwhile, are coming off a season-high 564 yards against Arizona State.

Athlon Sports

Oct 3, 2026; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons defensive back Alexander Perez (26) and quarterback Liam Szarka (9) after the game against the Navy Midshipmen at Falcon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Athlon Sports keeps Baylor close to home for a rematch with a familiar postseason opponent.

Armed Forces Bowl: vs. Air Force

Air Force improved to 3-1 by beating Navy 14-9 on Saturday, rushing for 188 yards and holding the ball for more than 36 minutes.

Preparing for the Falcons would require a significant adjustment from Baylor's usual Big 12 schedule. Air Force likes to keep the ball on the ground, drain the clock and limit possessions, making early stops particularly important for a Bears offense that has shown it can score quickly. Baylor just held Arizona State to 99 rushing yards, providing some encouragement against an opponent built around the ground game.

There would also be some history attached. Air Force beat Baylor 30-15 in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Four years later, the projected rematch would give the Bears a chance to flip that result in the same building.

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