PFF predicts the winner of Baylor vs Arizona State
The Baylor Bears are hosting the Arizona State Sun Devils to start Big 12 play. Baylor opened as a 2.5-point favorite and has held that line throughout the week.
Saturday's matchup will feature two of the nation's best quarterbacks. With the Big 12 matchup drawing plenty of eyes, many media outlets are making their predictions — including PFF, whose staff analysts Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman put out predictions for key college football games.
Pro Football Focus' predicition: Baylor vs. Arizona State
PFF opened their predictions for the Bears' Week 4 matchup with a "storyline to know." The popular news outlet is eyeing the two Big 12 teams looking to become contenders in their conference. Neither Arizona State nor Baylor is currently among the top four favorites to win the Big 12, but both teams have looked promising to start the season. According to DraftKings, Arizona State has the fifth-best odds, at +750, while Baylor is right behind with the sixth-best odds at +850.
Pro Football Focus also named key matchups to watch for each time. PFF names Arizona State's strong running game against the lackluster Baylor run defense. The Sun Devils are averaging 232 rushing yards per game, while the Bears have the 124th-ranked run defense in terms of yards in the nation. PFF has ranked ASU with the 14th-best rushing grade in the country and Baylor with the 11th-lowest run-defense grade.
For Baylor, Pro Football Focus names quarterback Sawyer Robetson against Arizona State's zone coverage. The Sun Devils rarely blitz and rely on opposing quarterbacks to take what the defense gives them. While this strategy works against lesser-skilled signal callers, the Bears have too many weapons to contain. Robertson has put up impressive numbers to start the season, but has yet to see a defense as stingy as the Sun Devils.
Robertson has only thrown two interceptions in three games, but PFF has credited him with 10 turnover-worthy plays since 2024 — the same number as his big-time throws. Pro Football Focus has also credited Robertson with a 65.1 passing grade, which ranks him 99th in the FBS.
Final predictions
Max Chadwick: Arizona State 31, Baylor 28
Dalton Wasserman: Baylor 34, Arizona State 27
The PFF analysts each had different outcomes for Saturday's game. Max predicts the Sun Devils come out with a three points victory over the Bears, which he sees ASU utilizing their run game mismatch to carry them to the win.
For Dalton, he sees the number of weapons in the Baylor offense being too much for Arizona State, having the Bears extend their 30+ point streak to three games.
Saturday's matchup will be close. Two of the league's top playmakers at quarterback will be dueling it out for a chance to compete in the Big 12. While Arizona State came into the season as the No. 12-ranked team on the AP Poll, Baylor has emerged as a candidate for a top-25 ranking, receiving votes since their Week 2 upset win.
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Kyle is a writer for the Baylor Bears on SI. He is a student at the University of New Orleans and studies journalism. He also covers the New Orleans Saints and has previously covered the LSU Tigers football team. Kyle loves all aspects of sports and has used that to pursue a career as a writer.