Predicting Baylor football's 2025 record: Will the Bears Sic 'Em All?
With the 2025-2026 college football season fast approaching, many teams across the country are finalizing their depth charts and preparing for their week 1 matchups, with the long-term goal of making the College Football Playoff. Below, I break down the Baylor Bears' 2025-2026 schedule, game-by-game, and posit whether they have a shot at one of the spots in the 12-team playoff. For each game, I will provide a brief analysis and a predicted winner
Week 1: Auburn Tigers
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears
Baylor pulling off the week 1 upset against an SEC opponent? I'm in. Don't get me wrong, this will by no means be a walk in the park for the Bears. Auburn is going into a pivotal year with head coach Hugh Freeze, and Oklahoma transfer Quarterback Jackson Arnold looks to improve on his statistics from last year. Auburn is not the only school with a returning quarterback, as Sawyer Robertson is back and better than ever for the Bears. I can see this game turning into a shootout, and would give Sawyer Robertson the edge at home in Waco. Give me the Bears!
Week 2: SMU Mustangs
Predicted Winner: SMU Mustangs
Although I wanted to have Baylor go 3-0 in their non-conference schedule, it's hard to pick against the Mustangs. SMU, after recently having made the College Football Playoffs last year, is looking to continue its momentum from last year, and produce another winning season in the ACC. Although Baylor certainly has the firepower to win this game, the returning production from SMU, most notably Quarterback Kevin Jennings, along with the game taking place in Dallas, I have the Bears losing in a close one.
Week 3: Samford Bulldogs
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears
There's not too much to say about this one. After a 4-7 season in the FCS last year, Samford is coming into Waco with a MASSIVE undertaking in front of them. To put it simply, the Bulldogs will be outmatched as Baylor has the size, athleticism, and home-field advantage all working in their favor. Give me Baylor to win this one convincingly.
Week 4: Arizona State Sun Devils
Predicted Winner: Arizona State Sun Devils
Another team coming off a strong season and a College Football Playoff appearance, to start Big 12 play, the Sun Devils will make their way to Waco. Although Arizona State saw some key losses from its team last year, most notably, star running back Cam Skateboo, the team does return some key players, including Heisman Trophy hopeful Sam Leavitt. Another game that I think comes down to the wire, give me the Sun Devils in a close back-and-forth game where both quarterbacks shine.
Week 5: Oklahoma State Cowboys
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears
Following a tough loss to the Sun Devils, the Bears will look to bounce back with a battle against the Cowboys in Stillwater. Mike Gundy, now the second-longest tenured head coach in college football, will see his team return very little production from last year and is coming off a rough 3-9 season in 2024. Even with the transfer portal additions and incoming freshmen, I have the Bears winning this one to improve to 3-2 on the season.
Week 6: Kansas State Wildcats
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears (in a close one)
Kansas State is one of the more intriguing Big 12 teams in the upcoming college football season. After a strong end to their 2024 campaign, Kansas State returns some key pieces on offense, such as now sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson, running back Dylan Edwards, and wide Receiver Garret Oakley. Even with the returning production, I like the Bears to pull off an upset in Waco, with the Wildcats likely to be ranked by this point in the season.
Week 7: 1st bye week
Week 8: TCU Horned Frogs
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears
Coming off a bye week, I expect Dave Aranda's team to be well-rested and ready to compete against a gritty Horned Frogs team. TCU, which has continued to see strong success under head coach Sonny Dykes will return quarterback Josh Hoover, along with some key starters on their offensive line. I expect this game to be balanced offensively between both offenses, and the winner coming down to whichever team can mitigate mistakes. I like Dave Aranda going into Fort Worth to pull off yet another Big 12 win.
Week 9: Cincinatti Bearcats
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears
Baylor to win three tough Big 12 games in a row, with two coming on the road, I like it. Cincinnati is coming off a mediocre season after going 5-7 overall and 3-6 in conference play. Returning quarterback Brendan Sorsby is coming off a statistically strong season, and will look to improve upon his 2024 campaign. Unfortunately for him, I do not foresee that happening against the Bears in week 9, who will be on a roll after their big win in Fort Worth
Week 10: UCF Knights
Predicted Winner: UCF Knights
Although I wanted the winning streak to continue, I think the Bears end up overlooking the Knights in what could be a pivotal game with College Football Playoff implications. Although the Knights do not return a ton of production from their 2024 team, UCF showed last year that they can compete with the best of the best of the Big 12, losing in one-possession games to Arizona State and Cincinnati, and winning over teams like TCU and Arizona. In a gut-wrenching loss, I see the Knights walking out of Waco with a win that could destroy Baylor's postseason dreams.
Week 11: 2nd bye week
Week 12: Utah Utes
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears
For the last couple of years, former Utah Utes quarterback Cam Rising has been a staple of the program. While at Utah, he has provided the Utes with a reliable option at the Quarterback position, finding ways to win big games. However, with Cam Rising now gone, who will step up in his place? Could it be sophomore Isaac Wilson, the younger brother of former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson? Especially given that this game will take place in Waco, I like the Bears to come away with the W.
Week 13: Arizona Wildcats
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears
Another team with some good returning production, including Quarterback Noah Fifita, the Arizona Wildcats will look to defend their home against a rolling Bears team. Although I believe Fifita is poised to take a big step next year in his progression, not having star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan to throw to could impact his production. Who will step up in McMillan's absence after losing him to the NFL? I think the Baylor offense will be too much, and Fifita won't be able to keep pace. Give me the Bears!
Week 14: Houston Cougars
Predicted Winner: Baylor Bears
Current Houston head coach Willie Fritz was a top commodity following the turnaround and success of Tulane football, and Houston was the winner of those sweepstakes back in 2023. With expectations high, Fritz will look to continue to develop his team going into his second year with the Cougars. The big name to monitor for Houston is incoming Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman. A highly regarded recruit coming out of high school, Weigman will look to succeed in his role as the potential full-time starter. However, Dave Aranda will have his team prepared and will cap off another successful season at Baylor with a W to close out Big-12 play.
Final Baylor Bears 2025-2026 Projected Record: 9-3
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Josh started covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Prior to Baylor Bears on SI, he worked as an intern for TheMichiganInsider at 247Sports. Josh graduated from the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor, with a bachelor’s degree in economics, where his passion for collegiate athletics continued to grow after attending his first game in The Big House. Combining his analytical background and his affinity for collegiate sports, Josh enjoys providing his unique perspective on the shifting dynamic equilibrium of the collegiate athletics landscape. When not watching sports, Josh enjoys cooking a nice meal, running, and traveling to new places with his friends and family.