3 Reasons Why Baylor could struggle to reach bowl eligibility in 2025

Earlier this week, I outlined the hypothetical case where Baylor breaks through and cracks the College Football Playoff. However, in the name of balance, if I’m presenting the best case scenario, I have to present the worst case, as well. For Baylor, 2025 represents a season of opportunity — but also one of pressure. Head coach Dave Aranda has already survived the hot-seat cycle one, but another disappointing year would only intensify questions about his future in Waco. The College Football Playoff may be the program’s dream ceiling, but the floor is far less forgiving. A few early stumbles, coupled with underwhelming performances from key newcomers and familiar issues on both sides of the ball, could quickly drag the Bears back into the conversation of whether they can even reach six wins.

1. Off On a Bad Note

Baylor’s season will be defined early, and the worst-case scenario starts in Week 1. A home loss to Auburn in the opener not only hurts the résumé but risks shaking the team’s confidence right out of the gate. That defeat could easily snowball into a rocky September stretch. Week 2 at SMU — a playoff participant in 2024 — presents a brutal follow-up, and a team still searching for rhythm could struggle in Dallas. By Week 4, Arizona State arrives in Waco as the reigning Big 12 champion, and a blowout loss in that spot would feel especially demoralizing for a program trying to establish its footing and set the tone for the rest of the season that seems over before it starts. In this version of events, the Bears limp out of the first month at 2–2 or even 1–3, digging a hole that makes bowl eligibility an uphill battle the rest of the way, perhaps even taking on some losses in conference (Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, or UCF) that are inexcusable.

2. Transfers Flop, Defense Drops

The defensive reinforcements that were supposed to elevate Baylor could just as easily flop. Making the jump to Big 12 competition isn’t guaranteed to be smooth, and if Matthew Fobbs-White and Travion Barnes can’t replicate their previous success at the P4 level, the front seven remains inconsistent. Oregon transfer Emar'rion Winston and Ohio State transfer Calvin Simpson-Hunt bring name recognition, but they could quickly show why they weren’t seeing regular snaps at their previous programs. If they struggle to carve out impact roles in Waco, Baylor is left with the same depth issues as 2024.

That becomes especially problematic up front, where the Bears desperately need to generate pressure. Without it, the secondary faces another repeat of last year’s struggles. Carl Williams IV, already questionable for Week 1, could spend the year battling nagging injuries — leaving the front without its most reliable anchor. That lack of stability filters down to the back end, where coverage breakdowns and explosive plays allowed once again haunt the defense.

3. Offensive Offense

The optimism around Baylor’s offense hinges on Sawyer Robertson making the leap from solid to elite. But what if he doesn’t? With a year of film now available, opposing defensive coordinators know his tendencies — and weaknesses. Given that, Robertson stagnates instead of elevating, and the Bears’ offense remains functional but far from dynamic.

The loss of Dawson Pendergrass looms especially large in this scenario. Without his downhill physicality, the backfield leans heavily on Bryson Washington. While talented, Washington is now a known commodity, and defenses can load the box against him, daring Robertson to beat them through the air. That formula could turn Washington into more of a short-yardage, move-the-chains runner rather than the explosive weapon Baylor needs. With freshman running back Michael Turner hurt, the RB2 load becomes too much, too soon for Caden Knighten, who struggles to find his traction in pass pro, finding himself in Khenon Hall’s doghouse, but also struggles to replicate the big-time flashes we’ve seen from him in the spring and summer.

The wide receiver room, while deeper than a year ago, doesn’t necessarily solve the explosiveness issue either. If Robertson can’t consistently push the ball downfield, players like Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins remain reliable but unspectacular chain-movers, while transfers Louis Brown IV and Kole Wilson struggle to provide game-breaking production. Kobe Prentice, the dynamic threat from Alabama, has moments, but becomes discontent in not finding a consistent role in his senior season, and quickly becomes an afterthought. Without explosive plays, Baylor’s offense becomes predictable, and predictability is deadly in a Big 12 that demands firepower. Baylor spends most of its season in ill-equipped shootouts, being forced into games where Robertson throws the ball 30-40 times because of a lack of a run game, and playing from behind a ton.

The Bottom Line

The path to the playoff may exist, but so does the possibility of a collapse. If Baylor opens the year with a loss to Auburn and stumbles through September, confidence wanes quickly. Add in transfers failing to make the jump, a defense that still can’t pressure the quarterback, and an offense that remains capped by Robertson’s limitations and Pendergrass’ absence, and suddenly six wins becomes the fight rather than the floor.

In that scenario, Dave Aranda finds himself once again firmly on the hot seat — not for falling short of playoff dreams, but ending the season playing in what is now one of college football’s meaningless bowl games against a non-Power 4 opponent. While I think the optimistic view is more plausible than this, Baylor fans should recognize that the path to 8-9 wins isn't guaranteed.

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