Beyond the Box Score: Why BYU QB Bear Bachmeier Is Further Along Than He Looks

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Stanford
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Stanford | BYU Photo

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This is going to sound like an insult, but it’s not. The weak link of BYU’s offense this season is its quarterback. In fact, it’s probably the only reason BYU is sitting outside the top 25. Truthfully, it makes sense. If all you did was look at Bachmeier’s passing yards, you’d think he was a mediocre quarterback. From the eye test, most will see a bigger kid - who wears 47 - with a demeaner that would lead one to think he was more interested in running over a safety than throwing past one deep down the field. But rather than just going to the box score to evaluate Bachmeier, let’s go deeper.

In our view, there are six areas that a quarterback must excel at to succeed in BYU’s offense. They are:

  1. Making the layups
  2. Throwing against pressure
  3. Controlling the intermediate area of the field
  4. Hitting the deep ball
  5. Avoiding negative plays
  6. Diagnosing all of it in under three seconds

How has Bachmeier done in these areas this season? Let's discuss.

1. Making the Layups

No one likes conservative offense, but it’s clear that OC Aaron Roderick is trying to ease the young quarterback into the starting role. 28.1% of Bachmeier’s throws have been behind the line of scrimmage this season, nearly twice the 14.6% from Jake Retzlaff last season. However, Bear has been on target on 100% of his throws behind the line of scrimmage compared to 87% from Retzlaff last season. In this regard, Bachmeier has lived up to expectations by doing the easy stuff well.

2. Throwing Under Pressure

Fortunately, Bachmeier has yet to face a significant amount of pressure behind a stellar offensive line. BYU has allowed pressure on only 29.5% of drop backs despite being blitzed on 41% of the time. Last season, Retzlaff ranked among the worst of all FBS quarterbacks when pressured, completing just 37% of his passes with 10 turnover-worthy plays. Bachmeier has been a different story. Bachmeier’s on-target percentage (71.4%) when pressured is over 20 points higher than Retzlaff’s, good enough for top-40 nationally. Not bad for a true freshman.

This throw against Stanford epitomizes how advanced Bachmeier is for his age. On 2nd & 2, Bachmeier has a rusher in his face hitting him as he throws. Now watch closely where his intended target, Chase Roberts, is when he releases this ball. Roberts is on the left side of the defending linebacker. Bachmeier winds up to throw before Roberts is out of his break to avoid the defender in his face. It’s super common for quarterbacks to drift off their back foot under pressure, causing the throw to sail over the intended target. Bachmeier, though, steps into the pressure and delivers a dart to the empty zone on the linebacker's right. The throw hits Roberts in stride, setting BYU up for 1st & goal. That kind of poise and anticipation is rare, and an attribute BYU has not had in some time. Turns out, it pays to have a QB that likes to hit.

3. The Intermediate Passing Game

This was an area where BYU was always going to miss Retzlaff. Per PFF, Retzlaff was the 20th best passer in America on throws from 10-20 yards downfield, leading BYU to be among the best big-play offenses in the country. Retzlaff completed 62% of his passes in this range with nine touchdowns. While Bachmeier hasn’t been asked to throw downfield much through two games, BYU hasn’t really missed a beat in terms of accuracy. Bachmeier is completing 66.7% of his intermediate throws this season, and 71.4% against Stanford.

Here is one example against Stanford. This is a big-time throw. 3rd down, pressure in his face, and Bachmeier delivers a dime to Carsen Ryan. This might seem like a simple out route, but this is the kind of throw that got Zach Wilson drafted number 2 overall. This throw traveled over 35 yards in the air on a rope and could not have been placed better if it had been handed to Ryan. If this is the kind of throw Bachmeier can make in his second career start, Bachmeier is going to be very good.

4. Deep Passing Game

Of all the areas Bachmeier needs to improve, this is it. While he’s only thrown six passes of 20 yards or more, four of them were clear misses. Bachmeier has attempted three back-shoulder throws downfield to Roberts this year and none of them were catchable. That needs to improve and likely will with more time and practice. There are signs of progress though. By far the best throw of Bachmeier’s young career came on a 41-yard completion to Roberts in what felt like a turning point for the young QB.

With a running back as good as LJ Martin, the play action pass will be a huge asset for Bachmeier. However, that works both ways. Bachmeier needs to demonstrate an ability to take the top off a defense to keep defenses honest against the run. On this play in particular, Stanford dedicated nine defenders to run support, which is what led to the open throw downfield. While Bachmeier has a way to go here, progress is being made.

5. Avoiding Negative Plays

Bachmeier faced almost zero pressure against Portland State but showed some real inexperience against Stanford when blitzed. So far this season, 23.1% of pressures have turned into sacks for BYU compared to just 14.1% last season. Based on national statistics, on drives that include a sack, only 25% pick up another first down on that drive. BYU fans saw that in action against Stanford. On BYU’s three drives that featured sacks, the drives died. The fastest way Bachmeier can improve here is diagnosing the rush pre-snap. Again, that will come with time and practice, but every sack Bachmeier has taken this season was the result of a misdiagnosed pressure rather than a matchup loss by an offensive lineman.

6. Processing Speed

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier attempts a throw against Stanford
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier attempts a throw against Stanford | BYU Photo

When Aaron Roderick raved about Bachmeier’s intelligence and decision making, he wasn’t lying. Bachmeier’s processing speed is lightening quick. Bachmeier’s average time from snap to throw this season is 2.3 seconds, 7th fastest nationally. These quick processing times do not appear to be a function of pressure or play selection. Bachmeier's average time to throw from a clean pocket is 2.06 seconds (11th nationally). His average depth of target on those drop backs is 9.6 air yards per throw (30th nationally), while being on target well over 70% of the time. In non-data terms, even when he’s not pressured, he gets the ball out quicker, deeper down the field, and more accurately than almost any of his peers.

Again, this is not limited to clean pockets. His processing speed is also 14th when pressured, 12th on short throws, 30th on intermediate throws, and 6th on deep throws. Simply put, pressured or not pressured, short throw or deep throw, hardly anyone is processing faster than Bear Bachmeier this season.

What does all this mean?

Bachmeier is further along as a passer than one might think, but it doesn’t always feel like it. Why? He makes the difficult look boring. He makes the right read faster than almost anyone and delivers an accurate throw on both screens, short, and intermediate levels of the field. An opposite hash throw 15 yards down field with pressure is incredibly difficult, but it doesn’t look that way for Bear. Obviously, there is plenty of room to grow. Bachmeier needs to be better at avoiding sacks and developing better timing with his receivers down field. That will come with time. But for a true freshman with two career starts? He’s definitely ahead of schedule.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.