Key Matchups and Advanced Analytics That Favor BYU Against Notre Dame

The Cougars have their work cut out for them against Notre Dame, but there are a few key areas where they could have an advantage.

BYU cornerback Therrian Alexander III against Iowa State | Jaren Wilkey/BYU Photo

On Saturday, no. 8 BYU will take on no. 2 Notre Dame in the first top 10 matchup in the history of LaVell Edwards Stadium. The Fighting Irish are highly ranked for a reason - they have won every game they've played by double digits this season. BYU is a double-digit underdog at home for this game. On paper, there are very few weaknesses that BYU can exploit.

However, the Fighting Irish aren't flawless. There are a few key matchups that favor BYU going into this game. In this article, we're breaking down the areas where BYU will need to excel to pull off the upset.

Key matchups between BYU and Notre Dame | BYU On SI

The conversion downs

Excluding garbage time, Notre Dame ranks 4th in points per drive and 13th in points allowed per drive. The Fighting Irish rank 3rd in offensive success rate and 6th in defensive success rate. Frankly, there aren't many holes to poke in their data profile. They have been as dominant as their ranking suggests.

However, there is one area where BYU has been consistently better on both sides of the ball: conversion downs. Conversion downs percentage is the combined conversion rates on third and fourth downs. Notre Dame ranks 91st nationally in third and fourth-down conversions allowed. Meanwhile, BYU ranks 35th in conversion down percentage. If BYU can put itself in manageable third downs, it will have the chance to sustain drives and flip the field if this becomes a battle of field position.

BYU football offense against the Notre Dame defense | BYU On SI

On the other side of the ball, BYU has been one of the best defenses in college football on third down. The Cougars rank 6th in conversion rate allowed and Notre Dame ranks 71st in conversion rate on offense. The data suggests that if BYU can get the Fighting Irish in third down situations, they will have their chances to get off the field and get the ball back to BYU's offense.

It's worth noting that Notre Dame's offense has been so good that they haven't always faced third downs. The Fighting Irish rank 6th nationally in third down exposure, meaning there are drives where they don't even face third downs. Notre Dame has 10 touchdowns drives in which they have scored before facing a third down. The Cougars must be great on early downs to have a chance at limiting this Notre Dame offense.

2. TD per scoring drive

Notre Dame has been one of the stingiest defenses in college football. The Fighting Irish rank second nationally in scoring position drives allowed. A scoring position drive is a drive that reaches the opponent 40 or closer. While Notre Dame has rarely allowed offenses to reach scoring territotory, there has been a trend of breaking after they bend.

The Fighting Irish rank 88th in touchdowns allowed per scoring drive. The Cougars, meanwhile, are ranked 5th in converting those scoring opportunities into touchdowns. The data suggests that once BYU gets into scoring territory, the Cougars will have the chance to convert those opportunities into touchdowns. If this turns into a defensive battle and 24 points is enough to win, the data says BYU would need to generate approximately five scoring range drives to reach 24 points:

• 3 touchdowns
• 1 field goal
• 1 failure

Five scoring range drives feels obtainable for this BYU offense at home, especially if the Cougars can find ways to generate a short field or two.

Key matchup: BYU's passing game is battle tested

What if I told you BYU has already faced two defenses with better success rate and EPA allowed against the pass than Notre Dame? Both TCU and Arizona rank better than the Fighting Irish in those two categories.

In fact, in terms of EPA allowed per play against the pass, Notre Dame (52nd) is more similar to Iowa State (60th) than TCU (20th) and Arizona (23rd).

Passing success rate allowed of BYU opponents so far this year. | BYU On SI

BYU's passing attack has faced some early tests already this season. That should help the Cougars prepare for what will be a major test against Notre Dame. Now, BYU's passing attack was very limited on a rainy night in Forth Worth against TCU. History suggests that says more about the weather than BYU's passing attack, however. In two rain games in his career (Arizona and TCU), Bear Bachmeier has struggled the throw the football. The Cougars bounced back with a dominant showing through the air against Iowa State last week, and there is no rain in the forecast for Saturday night.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, has only faced one passing offense better than BYU's in terms of pass success rate: Purdue. The TCU game is really bringing down BYU's ranking as well. If you exclude the TCU game, BYU would rank 3rd in passing success rate nationally. BYU's passing attack is more dangerous than most of the passing attacks Notre Dame has faced so far this season.

The Fighting Irish kept Purdue's offense out of the end zone for most of that game. Can they do that again against BYU? That will be one of the key matchups in this game.

Passing success rate of the opponents Notre Dame has faced this season | BYU On SI

Key matchup: who can create explosive plays?

Both defenses excel in preventing explosive plays, and neither offense has been elite in terms of explosiveness. Notre Dame and BYU rank 4th and 24th, respectively, in explosive play rate allowed. On offense, BYU ranks 35th in explosive play rate and Notre Dame ranks 96th in explosive play rate.

The data would say that BYU has a better track record of producing explosive plays, but the Cougars have also been more vulnerable to explosive plays on defense than the Fighting Irish. Sustaining long drives against this Notre Dame defense is going to be challenging. Two or three explosive plays in key moments could generate the scoring opportunities that BYU needs to win. The team that finds ways to manufacture explosive plays will have a major advantage in this game.

Key matchup: the quarterback pressure battle

In games against Power Four competition, BYU and Notre Dame have been two of the best in the trenches. Notre Dame ranks 1st nationally in defensive pressure rate and 5th in pressure rate allowed. BYU ranks 10th in defensive pressure rate and 2nd in pressure rate allowed.

The team that finds a way to pressure the quarterback without blitzing will probably be the team that wins this game. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr has been lethal against the blitz this season, so if BYU is going to generate pressure, they will need to do it without blitzing.

Notre Dame QB CJ Carr against the blitz this season:

23/29 passing (79.3% comp)
325 yards (11.2 YPA)
3 TDs
0 INTs
147.8 passer rating pic.twitter.com/WbrZ5mLfSG

— Underdog CFB (@UnderdogCFB) September 29, 2026

BYU's offensive line has already faced a defense that excels at generating pressure in Arizona, but Notre Dame's defensive line is in a different tier. It will be the biggest test for BYU's offensive line since the Texas Tech games last season.

Big 12 rankings of QB pressure rate (plus Notre Dame for this week) | BYU On SI | Data Credit: Sports Info Solutions

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