Picking the Over/Under Win Totals for Big 12 Teams in 2024

Now that college football rosters are beginning to settle, sportsbooks across the country are releasing college football win totals for the 2024 football season. Oddsmakers don't expect BYU to be back in a bowl game in 2024. FanDuel and BetOnline set BYU's over/under win total at 4.5. Today, we're picking the the over or the under for each Big 12 team in 2024.

Kansas State

Win Total: 9.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Over

Kansas State has a favorable home/away split in 2024. They host Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Arizona State, and Cincinnati. On paper, their toughest road tests look like West Virginia, BYU and Iowa State. 9.5 is a high number, especially in a conference where anyone can beat anyone on any given Saturday. However, Chris Klieman has established an impressive culture and if there's anyone that has a proven track record in the conference over the last few years, it's Kansas State.

Utah

Win Total: 9.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

This was a tough pick that we went back and forth on. Utah was given a very friendly schedule for their first season in the Big 12. They avoid Kansas State, Kansas, and Texas Tech. They will be one of the favorites to win the conference and for good reason. They are a proven program with a championship culture. 

However, we picked the under on this one. Utah won a lot of games by dominating the line of scrimmage in the Pac-12. We think some of the people up on the Hill will be surprised at how much more physical the Big 12 is compared to the Pac-12. 

This one is close, but 9-3 is slightly more likely than 10-2. 

Arizona

Win Total: 8.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

Unlike Utah, Arizona was not done any favors in the scheduling department. They play at Kansas State, at Utah, at BYU, at UCF, and at TCU. They also have to host West Virginia and Texas Tech.

We're big believers in Noah Fifita, but this schedule is just a little too difficult to get to 9-3 in the first year under a new head coach.

Kansas

Win Total: 8.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is dynamic when healthy, but injuries have been more common than a good bill of health. They won't play home games on campus this year and they have a handful of challenging road tests. 8-4 feels more likely than 9-3.

Texas Tech

Win Total: 8.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Over

If the Red Raider have some more injury luck at quarterback, they could meet the preseason expectations that were placed on them before the 2023 season. Tahj Brooks is a legitimate candidate to lead in the country in rushing for 1,541 yards in 2023.

UCF

Win Total: 8.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

UCF is the sexy pick as the up-and-coming program in the conference. I don't think they are ready to go from six wins to nine wins in season two in the Big 12. A tough schedule combined with a roster that's not quite ready to go 9-3 are the primary reasons for our

TCU

Win Total: 7.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Over

TCU has one of the most talented rosters in the conference, giving them the ability to quickly improve after a down year in 2023. The Horned Frogs have a pretty favorable schedule and 7.5 is a low enough number to make this a quick and easy pick on the over.

Iowa State

Win Total: 7.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Over

Another tough one but we picked the over. The Cyclones are on the rise but they have a tough schedule in 2024. However, they could slip up four times and still hit the over. This one is a coin flip.

Oklahoma State

Win Total: 7.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Over

On one hand, Oklahoma State returns the best running back in college football in Ollie Gordon. On the other hand, I'm just not sold on quarterback Alan Bowman. He's played long enough that you can't expect him to change much compared to what he's already showed. He's mistake-prone and that will cost Oklahoma State a few games this season.

We're still leaning towards the over. Mike Gundy knows how to win games and it appears he has weathered the transfer portal storm that impacted his program last year.

West Virginia

Win Total: 6.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

I think Neal Brown has WVU on a good trajectory, but the Mountaineers have a brutal schedule in 2024. They play Penn State, at Pitt, Kansas, at Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, at Arizona, UCF, and at Texas Tech. There are so, so many tough games on their schedule. For that right, I'm going with the under even though I think WVU gets to a bowl game with six wins.

Colorado

Win Total: 5.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

Colorado might have the toughest schedule in the conference. Going all in on the transfer portal comes with major risks, but that's exactly the strategy that Coach Prime is deploying in Boulder. I expect them to struggle down the stretch much like they did in 2023.

Cincinnati

Win Total: 5.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Over

A favorable non-conference schedule combined with a favorable conference schedule is a good recipe for the Bearcats to get back to a bowl game in 2024.

Baylor

Win Total: 5.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

Baylor is one of those programs that can go from four wins one season to 10 wins in the next season. However, the trend in Waco is concerning and six wins feels like one too many to bet on.

BYU

Win Total: 4.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Over

FanDuel set the under line at -132 odds. That means FanDuel believes it's more likely that BYU wins four games or less than it is that they win five games or more. To place a bet on the under win total, you would have to bet $132 to win $100 back.

BYU's low win total is driven by a few things: a bad finish to the 2023 season, a challenging 2024 schedule, and uncertainty at quarterback. BYU didn't do themselves a lot of favors in the non-conference scheduling department either. BYU has two back-to-back road games at SMU and Wyoming. Going 2-0 during that stretch is going to be a tall task, so oddsmakers likely expect BYU to drop one of those games.

However, five wins is a low threshold given BYU will at least be 2-1 going into conference play. BYU won two conference games in 2023, winning three in 2024 feels like a very attainable goal.

Arizona State

Win Total: 4.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

For Arizona State, they have to prove they are capable of some semblance of stability before we can pick them to win five games.

Houston

Win Total: 4.5

Cougs Daily Pick: Under

I'm a big fan of Willie Fritz. I think he'll need one more year before turning around a Houston program that has been mediocre for many years in a row.

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