Rankings Update: BYU Among the Nation's Fastest Ascending Teams

BYU cornerback Marcus McKenzie against East Carolina | BYU Photo

Another week, another win for BYU, and one in which BYU again outperformed expectations. A third straight win was too much to ignore for the voters as BYU found its way into the AP top 25 for the first time this season. The move was well deserved as BYU also saw significant boosts to both their predictive ratings and resume ratings following the 21-point win over ECU. Let’s get into it.

How the AP voters view BYU

BYU’s off to a nice start, need to see a little more against better competition. https://t.co/l41YXkuA1w

— S. Johnson (@StevenMJohnson_) September 21, 2025

BYU was ranked in the Top 25 this week. It appears BYU’s win over ECU finally got some attention following a 3rd straight three touchdown win, appearing on 30 ballots this week, up from 14 the week before. What might be most interesting, though, is who left BYU off their ballots this week. Of the 8 ballots that are affiliated with Big12 schools (62 ballots total), BYU appeared on only 3. One voter affiliated with TCU posted that, while BYU is off to a nice start, he needs to see a little more against better competition before sliding BYU into his top 25. That seems to be a common refrain for voters this season in reference to BYU. There’s always another question to be answered that for some reason other schools aren’t being asked to answer. Thankfully its still early. Just keep winning.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

Week 5 KFord Ratings pic.twitter.com/NauK5yg4jy

— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) September 21, 2025

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 25

FPI: 18

KFord: 21

FEI: 19

Average: 20.8 (Prior week: 23.5)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but based on predictive metrics, BYU is still underrated by the AP poll. What’s fascinating, though, is the predictive metrics haven’t seemed to catch up to BYU yet. On average, BYU would be favored by 15 points against the average FBS team, up from 13 points last week. BYU is the nation’s 14th largest riser in KFord while also rising 12 spots in SP+ since the preseason as the metrics get more data on BYU and preseason expectations are phased out. If BYU keeps playing the way they are, they are only going to keep rising.

Preseason expectations aside, three of the four metrics think BYU is better than last season, with FPI favoring 2025 BYU by as much as 5 points on a neutral field. While a completely meaningless comparison, it’s still fun to see that what BYU fans thought preseason is being supported by data: this team can accomplish everything last year’s team did.

What do the resume-based metrics say?

BYU RB LJ Martin celebrates a touchdown run against ECU | BYU Photo

Definition: Resume based metrics compare the teams performance to how the average top 10 team would have performed against the same schedule. They measure not only strength of schedule, but how a team performs against that schedule.

SP+: 16

FPI (SOR): 21

KFord: 35

FEI: 34

Average: 26.5 (Prior: 29.3)

Verdict: FPI loved BYU’s win over then 52nd rated ECU, as the win vaulted them from 32nd to 21st in Strength of Record. Herein lies why resume ratings are important. A teams strength of schedule is vastly less important than how you perform against that schedule. BYU’s strength of schedule is outside the top 100 across all rating systems, but the way BYU has beaten the teams on that schedule makes among the 26 best resumes in the sport on average.  

Conclusion

The AP voters clearly do not see in BYU what the predictive metrics see in BYU, most likely because they haven’t really seen BYU play at all. While it's frustrating that BYU isn’t being given the benefit of the doubt other programs seem to get, BYU’s ranking will get better if they are truly as good as the predictive metrics suggest. BYU is favored in eight of their remaining nine games by KFord and FPI, and seven of their remaining games according to SP+. FPI gives BYU the second-highest odds to win the Big 12 at 24.7% behind only Texas Tech at 29.3%. Lets all hope that this is one thing the metrics get right this year.