Cincinnati Basketball Keys to the Game: Dayton Flyers

UC has owned this series over the years.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Dec 14, 2023 9:57 AM EST

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CINCINNATI — Cincinnati's last opportunity at a non-conference Quad 1 win is nearly here, as a neutral site battle against Dayton is up next. The Bearcats can firmly position themselves as an NCAA tournament candidate with a victory over one of its historic rivals at Heritage Bank Center.

Obviously, a lot more wins need to come for them to punch a ticket, but beating the Flyers would give them some leeway in the early Big 12 gauntlet as they adjust to that league. Dayton enters this matchup as the 57th-best team on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 26th.

ESPN's matchup predictor (correct in every UC game projection this season) has the Bearcats winning 66.9% of the time at the neutral site. UC is 44-16 against Dayton since 1949.

This bout is a fascinating matchup between two of the more different styles you'll find in college basketball. It's time for some keys to the game.

When UC Has The Ball

Can the Bearcats speed up a Flyers team that does anything but?

That's my biggest question coming in, as Cincinnati owns the 106th fastest pace in the country, all while Dayton sits close to the slowest mark (356th). Dayton sports a strong defense, allowing 64.8 points per game (47th) and a 101.3 adjusted defensive rating (108th nationally).

UC has not dealt with length like this all season and it's disciplined at that as Dayton gives up just 12.8 free throw attempts per game (12th nationally). The Flyers rely on a tight six-man rotation led defensively by the best overall player on the team: DaRon Holmes (16.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, three assists).

If the Bearcats' big men combine to overcome Holmes down low, then UC has a fantastic chance to notch a signature non-conference win. Holmes averages a team-high 2.1 blocks at 6-foot-10, 220 pounds.

He is one of the best overall players in the Atlantic 10 and just ahead of lead defensive guard Enoch Cheeks (6.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals) with a 99.7 defensive rating. Cheeks starts the defensive pressure and Holmes finishes it, as Dayton rarely allows teams to run consistently while choking out half-court possessions. Dayton has a pair of 6-foot-6 or taller sharpshooting wings as well that can hold their own on defense.

The turnover problems cannot pick up like they did in the opening half against Bryant. That was uncharacteristic of a Wes Miller team as they enter averaging 9.9 turns per game (28th). Staying on schedule and getting strong decision-making from the guards is imperative.

When Dayton Has The Ball

Making Holmes a one-dimensional player with ball pressure has been a winning formula against Dayton. He's combined for seven turnovers in the team's two losses this season and is more than willing to feed some of the best outside shooters in the country.

Cincinnati's defense will be tested at every level here against the 39th-most efficient offense in the country, powered by Holmes's inside shooting and a 40.3% team mark from outside (12th-best nationally). The big fella is hyper-efficient, leading the A-10 in PER last season, and is posting an astounding 24.6 mark this season.

A pair of big shooters are helping that efficiency as Wes Miller has to pick his poison on who John Newman III will guard out of Nate Santos (12.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, 60.7% from three) and Kobe Brea (11.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 49% from three). Holmes is likely going to get his as a 20-shot player largely inside, but Cincinnati cannot let all three go off for an offensive barrage.

The glass battle will determine much of this outcome, Dayton is great on the defensive glass but bad on offense. If UC can hamper them on both sides, they won't have enough shots to pull off anupset.

Prediction: 71-70 Bearcats

I'm expecting a classic that Cincinnati narrowly squeaks out in the neutral setting.

Newman and the rest of the perimeter talent shut down enough of that outside shooting to allow Cincinnati to win the rebound battle and bring the pain to Holmes for some rare foul trouble (2.2 fouls per game).

This is one of the program's best chances all season to get a Quad 1 win. If not fans may start running dry on patience for Wes Miller in these environments (Miller is 4-17 in holiday tournament/Xavier/Memphis/Houston/NIT matchups at Cincinnati).

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