Cincinnati Basketball Keys to The Game: @ No. 2 Houston Cougars

Cincinnati is trying to break a 10-game losing streak in this series.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Feb 26, 2024 9:47 AM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats stayed in Texas over the past few days as they swing from a TCU road matchup into an even tougher test at No. 2 Houston.

Cincinnati realistically has to win its next six games to have any chance at an at-large NCAA Tournament bid or win the Big 12 Tournament. Both of these would be shocking for a team that hasn't won consecutive Big 12 games yet.

The Bearcats have lost 10 consecutive games in this series and hold their lowest chance to win yet this season on ESPN's Matchup Predictor (3.9%).

"First off, we lost. Jamie Dixon's team was really good tonight," UC head coach Wes Miller said after the TCU loss. "I don't think anyone in our locker room is pleased with this. I have a pretty good pulse on our team. Our guys are down about how they played, as they should be, because they didn't play well. I thought our preparation was pretty good yesterday, but we made controllable errors that by this time of year, you want to clean that stuff up. TCU punished us today in transition for communication and focus errors, for turnovers and forced shots and poor shots and poor decisions with the ball. They were much quicker to the boards than us...they were the better team than us tonight by a stretch."

When Houston Has The Ball

Cincinnati may have some hope if it can repeat its key defensive factors in the 67-62 loss to Houston earlier this month. The one thing that can't happen again is 17 offensive rebounds from the Cougars.

That's this team's superpower as the nation's seventh-best offensive-rebounding team (14 per game). The Bearcats played elite on-ball defense and didn't foul at a high rate, but it was still a loss because of that key aspect.

Can Cincinnati's frontcourt be the most physical group in this game? If so, UC can match the board prowess of J'Whan Roberts (9.3 Pts, 7.1 Reb, 2.0 Ast) and Ja'Vier Francis (6.0 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast) and take away those crucial extra shots.

This looks like UC's final stand in the 2023-24 season, and its top strength throughout the year has to come through. The frontcourt trio of Viktor Lakhin, Aziz Bandaogo, and Jamille Reynolds need to play their best ball and use all of their physicality to limit Roberts (10-of-15 shooting in the first game).

In the backcourt, UC must continue to make Jamal Shead (13.3 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 5.9 Ast) a bricklayer. The Big 12 Player of the Year candidate shot just 6-of-25 on Feb. 10, but he was still effective with four assists and no turnovers. Speaking of turnovers, it's going to be very difficult to beat Houston if they only commit five turnovers again (just 8.7 per game, fifth-best nationally).

Cincinnati has to find a way to disrupt passing lanes and start quick breaks up the floor against easily the best defense in the country.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Threes and free throws...at volume.

Outside of shooting a scorching 68.9% from the field as Kansas did, that's the most realistic path to beating Houston. Cincinnati has to make at least 8-10 threes in this game and make another 18-20 free throws like they did earlier in the month.

We know this team is unlikely to post another 18-of-25 night at the line, given they rank in the 300s nationally shooting free throws. But that's a crucial factor against a team allowing the lowest field goal percentage in the country (37%).

Cincinnati will not get a lot of extra chances to make shots, and they won't get many open looks. They have to capitalize on those, especially from outside. Easier said than done against a defense allowing a 30.1% hit rate from deep. Unless UC plays good enough defense to keep this in the 50s, they have to find some kind of success from outside.

Given they've held just one Big 12 opponent under 60 points (UCF, 172nd ranked offense nationally by adjusted efficiency), it would be crazy to think they can do that to Houston (16th-best offense nationally). Get a little lucky from outside, bring the physicality to their bigs, and force turnovers.

Simple right?

Prediction: Houston 76-61

This Bearcats team is out of gas and the loss to Oklahoma State was a big reason I flipped my last prediction to TCU. The roster doesn't look confident and that's going to be on full display Tuesday night.

Shead pops off for 25-plus points as the Cougars get hot from deep to open up everything else and hand Cincinnati their 11th consecutive loss in this series.

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