Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: At Colorado

CINCINNATI — UC basketball is trying to bust out of one of the worst stretches during Wes Miller's tenure. Cincinnati travels to face Colorado on Wednesday amidst a four-game losing streak to open Big 12 play. The two face off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

This is one of UC's easiest matchups left this season, between two teams that haven't won a conference game yet. They are the only winless Big 12 teams in conference play so far.

Cincinnati is projected to win 69.6% of the time on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. They enter the game ranked 38th on KenPom and 41st in the NET ranking, while CU is 86th on KenPom and 87th in the NET.

"Needless to say, it's been a disappointing couple of weeks, there's no doubt about that," Miller said Saturday about the four-game losing streak. "Every part of our team and our program feels that disappointment, I thought our guys came out and played with the kind of energy and the kind of effort and the kind of approach that we should expect, and they played to our standard in that way, coming out of the gates, I was proud of that fight. They've responded well this week to a really disappointing game at Baylor because we didn't have that and I'm proud of that. I'm proud of the way they've stuck together, proud of the way that they're working. I'm proud of the way that they care."

Cincinnati is 7-1 against Colorado since the 1949-50 season.

Offensive Storyline: Run Away Shooting Woes

UC is not cashing verbal checks from this offseason offensively. A team that claimed it wanted to bring waves of depth and pace to the floor in 2024-25 is doing the opposite.

The Bearcats halfcourt offense is broken due to bad guard play, and they refuse to attack in transition on top of that. They will lose a fifth-straight game if they continue to passively attack teams. UC is now ranked 309th in adjusted tempo nationally and 207th in fastbreak points per game (9.67) after scoring just four of those points against Kansas on Saturday.

It's going to be harder to do that consistently and defend soundly on the other end at altitude in Boulder, CO, but that's the best way to break down a mediocre Colorado defense that defends well in the half-court (11.9 assists per game allowed, 93rd nationally). That defense is led by long 6-9 forward Trevor Baskin (9.2 points, 6.2 rebounds) who swallows up passing lanes and ranks 17th in the Big 12 in steal rate (3.1%).

Assane Diop (4.5 points, 4.7 rebounds) is another 6-10 big body to deal with down low, who is complemented up top by lead scoring guard Julian Hammond (14.3 points, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals per game). He's one of three Buffaloes posting over a steal per game. Cincinnati should be able to do a lot of that on their side of the defensive ledger to make it even easier to run in this game against a team willing to do so (CU ranks 161st in tempo).

Colorado is turning the ball over a whopping 15 times per game (18th-most nationally). Cincinnati has to attack quickly off of those mistakes and start getting 15-20 transition points per game for a flailing half-court offense.

Defensive Storyline: Defend The Three, Don't Foul

If Cincinnati continues its strong defensive themes this season, Colorado should not reach the 60-point mark. CU is a mediocre to solid shooting team (114th in FG%, 46.3%), but does most of its damage from downtown (35.3%, 109th nationally).

UC is one of the nation's best three-point defenses. Teams are shooting a measly 27.1% against them on the season (fifth-best nationally), and making 4.9 per game (fewest makes allowed by any team in D1). Slowing down Hammond (41.4% from deep on 4.7 attempts per game), and shooting specialist RJ Smith (49% on 3.3 attempts) would completely handicap Colorado and force them down a one-way street toward Aziz Bandaogo and UC's rim protectors.

The fouling matchup overwhelmingly favors Cincinnati as well. CU ranks 66th nationally making 16 free throws per game. They've averaged 15.3 makes on 19.3 attempts a game in conference. All of those were losses, including a 24-30 FT mark last game.

Enter a UC defense that does not foul often and does not give up many free throws (14.5 attempts per game, 20th nationally). If Colorado struggled to keep pace with Big 12 teams at nearly 20 attempts a game, then that margin for error gets even thinner against a UC defense that doesn't give opponents those freebies. The defensive matchup advantages alone should get UC on the board with its 11th win of the season.

Prediction: 66-54 Bearcats

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