Preview: Cincinnati Welcomes Houston Into Fifth Third Arena for a Daunting Test

The Cougars have won 11 games in a row.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Feb 4, 2022 3:40 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The UC men's basketball team (15-6, 5-3) faces its toughest test of AAC play thus far when they face the #6 Houston Cougars (19-2, 8-0) at home on Sunday night.

The Bearcats got an impromptu week off between Sunday's game and their win against ECU due to weather. That could be a welcome boost to their chances against a Houston team rolling since the start of 2020.

"The thing that is exciting about playing a team like Houston is they were in the Final Four last year," Wes Miller said in his media availability. "They've been in the top-10 for as long as I've been paying attention over the last couple of years, and they are currently in the top-10 in the country. So I do think if you can get through a game like that, you can really kind of gauge where you are relative to that."

The Cougars have won 37 straight home games (second-longest active streak nationally behind Gonzaga) and 11 straight overall after punching a ticket to the Final Four last season. Kelvin Sampson's team is firing on all cylinders despite losing guards Tramon Mark and Marcus Sasser for the season.

"Sustained success," Miller said this week when asked about Houston not losing a step despite major injury issues. "I always think that's how you measure real success, is can you sustain. They've sustained it over a long period of time. Whether it's guys graduating—or even during this season—losing some of their best players on their team and not missing a beat and keeping going. I think it says a lot about who they are and what they've built."

The Cougars would be the biggest win of the season for Cincinnati and put them right back on track to get off the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati comes in the game ranked 75th in KenPom, while Houston sits at No. 6. ESPN's matchup predictor has Houston winning 86% of the time.

Kelvin Sampson's team is relying on their signature swarming defense, great shot selection, and an efficient offense by committee. It's been astounding how little they've lost production-wise after Sasser and Mark went down.

Kyler Edwards (17.4 points in AAC play, 6.4 rebounds, team-high 5.3 assists) has taken over that lead playmaking role from Mark and Sasser, but the Cougars have a litany of players who can make plays all over the floor.

''Kyler (Edwards) played 40 minutes; Taze (Moore) played 38 (minutes), but that's not going to change,'' Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said this week after their win over Tulane. ''We don't have any depth. That's why what we're doing is not a beauty contest. It's a great win. Period. Did we shoot well? No. But, this time next time week, when you look at our record, it's going to count as W, and that's all I care about right now.''

Edwards has a big effect on the plus and minus shooting nights from Houston. He is one of five Cougars to attempt a three-pointer in conference play and fills it up when he gets hot. Edwards shoots 39.6% on 10.6 attempts per game and holds the sixth-highest offensive rating of any player in the AAC (119.2). He's happy to find his teammates when shots aren't falling, sitting as the only Cougar averaging over four assists in AAC play.

Sampson prides himself on having teams that defend passing lanes viciously and create smooth ones from any direction on the other end. Houston ranks 18th nationally in forced turnover rate (23.5%) and 19th in steal rate (13.4%). They allow just 56.5 points per game this season (tied for second-best nationally) and 57.4 in the conference (first).

Pair that sneaky defense with an offense ranking 34th in total assists (16 per game), plus third in offensive rebound rate (38.5%), and you get an exhausting team to cover. Houston has used its depth, stamina, and selfless style to rank 12th nationally in offensive efficiency (116.6).

There are no real weak spots to point out on this Houston team; top-10 squads often don't have them. The only major statistic where they rank outside of the top-170 is free-throw shooting, which hasn't mattered late in games because they are usually leading by double digits.

I mentioned Edwards as one of the four seniors driving the bus for the Cougars in conference play. Right behind him is Josh Carlton (15.5 points in conference play, team-high 9.1 rebounds), who is arguably the most terrifying big man Cincinnati will face the rest of this season.

The 6-foot-11, 240-pound forward defined efficiency in Houston's first eight conference games.

Carlton is posting the highest conference PPG on the team per 40 minutes (24.4 points) and is a brick wall of a human. He has an absurd 37.4 PER over the past eight games and has the highest eFG% of any player that's logged 100 minutes (61.4%).

To put Carlton's hot streak into perspective, Denver Nuggets guard Nikola Jokic is posting an NBA single-season record 33.1 PER so far. This 10-second clip is a perfect encapsulation of Carlton's impact. I almost forgot to mention he is third in the AAC in block rate (9.34%) and is swatting 2.3 shots per conference game.

Houston's rotation is down to about seven players due to the key injuries, and having veterans like Taze Moore (team-high 36.3 MPG) and Fabian White (27.8 MPG) is allowing Sampson to ramp up their workload without losing a beat.

Moore (10.3 points in AAC play, 5.6 rebounds, three assists, team-high 1.3 steals) is one of the slickest players in the conference. At 6-foot-5, 180 pounds, Moore can work at all three levels and is a big part of the Cougars signature wing actions that dial up ball movement and high-percentage shots near the rim.

Then he translates those plays into great energy and pesky ball pressure on the other end. His running mate White (13.5 points in conference play, 5.8 rebounds) has a similar impact on both facets of the game.

Cincinnati's best path to victory in this game is to make it ugly. Houston doesn't shoot free throws very well and thrives on taking their physical style of play right at the opponent. The Bearcats tasted the full force of that, losing 181-106 combined in two matchups last season.

Houston has the experience advantage, and talent advantage, but UC still has a lot of big bodies to throw at the Cougars (91-spot effective height advantage). If Wes Miller can use his fouls well and the Bearcats continue to take great care of the basketball (13.1% TO rate, 16th nationally), then they may have a shot to steal this game down the stretch at home.

They'll need all the help the Fifth Third Arena crowd can offer when the game tips off at 6 p.m. ET this Sunday on ESPN2.

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