Preview Paw Prints: Tulane Green Wave

The Bearcats have only lost to Tulane three times in the past 30 years.

CINCINNATI — The non-conference slate has wrapped for Wes Miller and the Bearcats (9-4) as they welcome in Tulane (7-4) for a 9 p.m. home tip on Thursday night.

Both teams sport top-100 offenses nationally in Cincinnati's second-hardest home test of the season. Tulane enters the game ranked 96th in KenPom, while Cincinnati is 71st. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Cincinnati a 73.6% chance to win the game.

Here's the preview as UC tries to avoid its fourth loss to the Green Wave since 1992.

Competition Stiffens

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Cincinnati's easy slate to start their 2022-23 season is about to get consistently tougher. The Bearcats either played a very good/great team or a terrible team over their first 13 contests.

None of the opponents came in the 50-150 KenPom ranking range where the Bearcats realistically slot into this season. It's left them with no signature wins—and one bad loss to Northern Kentucky.

“Well, I thought the first 2-3 weeks of the season were frustrating. You lose a couple of pieces. You're trying to figure out rotations, and you don't want to do that," Miller said last week. "You want to figure that out in the preseason. And I thought we were trying to kind of find our identity. I didn't think we were defending or sharing the ball. And so, we were really kind of just working through some things the first two or three weeks, and I'm not making excuses. I was frustrated. Our team was frustrated over the last two or three weeks since we got back from Maui. I felt like we've started to establish our identity as a team. We've had more purpose in practice. We’re figuring out roles and rotations and where we fit."

Only three AAC teams are outside the KenPom top 150 as of this writing, leaving UC with plenty of chances to build its postseason resume over the next two months. Memphis (No. 26) and Houston (No. 1) are the bellwethers for any NCAA Tournament hopes. Cincinnati has to beat at least one of those teams, and likely needs multiple wins to have a strong enough case.

First comes Tulane, which starts a big opening four-game stretch in the conference with other games at Temple, at Wichita State, and home against Houston. A 3-1 start is imperative for this team to make sure a 9-4 out-of-conference record doesn't start to weigh them down.

"Non-conference is over, and it gets real when league play starts," Miller said. "So I do like our improvement here the last three weeks, but that doesn't get guarantee anything we get back we have to keep growing and we're gonna have to take this up another level to compete the way that we want in the American.”

Leveling Up Lakhin

© Albert Cesare / The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

If the AAC handed out yearly most improved player awards, UC forward Viktor Lakhin (12.9 Pts, 7.6 Reb) would be the runaway favorite right now. He is filling up the stat sheet since returning from the Maui Invitational, averaging 15.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks over the past six games.

"Victor (Lakhin) 18 (points) and 15 (rebounds)," Miller said after last week's win over Detroit Mercy. "I'm sitting there, and I'm coaching every detail of what he's not doing. And then you look down he's got 18 (points) and 15 (rebounds). I say that because I think he's still just scratching the surface of how good he can be, but he was really effective tonight."

It's been cool to watch Lakhin closely all season and see the steady growth. He is moving faster and more soundly than he ever has and his basketball IQ is starting to show through in his block and steal numbers.

He is one of the five most efficient shooters nationally (71.7% FG), and matches that on the defensive end with his disruptive rotations. Cincinnati has gotten nothing out of Kalu Ezikpe this season on a team that needed extra frontcourt help.

Lakhin is making sure that miss doesn't tank their interior prowess game in and game out. He just posted career-highs in points and rebounds last week—during a battle where he never dominated the ball (17.4% usage rate).

Tulane is another great chance for Lakhin to impact things, as Kevin Cross is the only Green Wave rotation player over 6-foot-6.

Offensive Geen Wave

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Cincinnati's defense gets a step up in competition on Thursday. 

Tulane ranks 87th nationally in offensive efficiency and has three players averaging at 14-plus points. They are led on offense by guard Jalen Cook (20.2 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 5.3 Ast), who missed five games this season due to injury, but is a walking bucket when healthy.

He runs the show, leading the team with a 30.4% usage rate. Cook is one of the more well-rounded guards in the conference, shooting 35.3% from deep on 5.3 attempts, and 53% from two-point range. He also gets to the line consistently (team-high 5.3 FT attempts per game).

Slowing him down alongside Jaylen Forbes (16.8 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 1.6 Ast) is crucial on Thursday. Forbes is not nearly as efficient as his backcourt running mate but is just as aggressive (4.1 FT attempts per game). The duo shoots over 90% each from the stripe, powering the sixth-best team FT % nationally (80%).

Cross (14.2 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 3.4 Ast) is the frontcourt weapon to watch on Thursday. He is Tulane's best high-volume shooter inside the arc (54.6% 2PA) and leads them in rebounding.

That's the advantage Cincinnati needs to access on Thursday. Tulane ranks 314th in rebounds per game, so outclassing them on the boards is crucial. Winning the glass will keep Tulane's high-shot total offense at bay and should help Cincinnati keep a second-home loss this season off the ledger until 2023.

The game tips off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN and is available via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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