Preview: UC Goes for Three-Game Sweep of East Carolina in AAC Tournament Opener

CINCINNATI — The AAC Tournament is nearly here as the Cincinnati Bearcats (17-14, 7-11) go for a three-game season sweep of the East Carolina Pirates (15-14, 6-11). The Bearcats are the eighth seed in the tournament. This is UC's worst regular-season finish in the league's nine years of existence.

Prior to this season, no Bearcats team had finished worse than fifth in the AAC. It's been that kind of inconsistent season of change for Cincinnati. Although, they aren't finished yet; UC enters the event with unlikely 25-1 odds to lift the trophy. It won't be easy to overcome those, especially with a second-round matchup against No. 1 seed Houston waiting for them.

They'll have to sweep ECU to get there—a team that could need to shake off some rust after playing one game since Feb. 26. ECU comes into the game ranked 176th in KenPom, while Cincinnati sits at No. 103. ESPN's matchup predictor has Cincinnati winning 71.8% of the time.

ECU is playing as the No. 9 seed on Thursday, and they are honestly fortunate to have finished that high. They rank 33rd in KenPom's luck metric even with their record barely hanging above .500.

Facing one of the 15 easiest non-conference schedules will inflate most teams' final win total. The bottom line is East Carolina hasn't stopped many teams across 40 minutes this season. They rank 230th in points allowed on the whole campaign (70.8) and are dead last in conference play (72.8).

The Pirates are a stellar matchup for the "just make shots" Bearcats. Cincinnati attempts the most threes per game in the conference (26.7), while no one in the AAC allows a higher three-point percentage than ECU (36.1%). They also allow the second-highest two-point percentage (50.2%).

Junior guard Tristen Newton (team-high 17 points in conference play, team-high five assists, 5.3 rebounds) is the main man to stop on this team. He's a rare 15-5-5 player who can blow up at any moment and carry his ECU team with him.

No one in the AAC has played more minutes than Newton this season, and he is third in the conference in scoring while staying efficient with the seventh-best effective field goal percentage (49.4%). Keeping him under 20 points is imperative: ECU is 4-3 this season when he scores 20-plus.

Newton is built to be the ideal combo guard at 6-foot-5, 200 pounds, and it's led him to seek out contact near the rim. That big guard frame earned him the second-most free-throw attempts of any AAC player in the regular season (5.8 FTAs on 87.4% shooting). David Dejulius and the rest of the backcourt have their work cut out for them but keeping Newton on the perimeter as much as possible is a great start. He is shooting just 33.1% beyond the arc across 4.8 attempts per game.

One guy the Bearcats definitely do not want to funnel into three-point attempts is senior forward Vance Jackson (14.6 points in conference play, team-high 5.8 rebounds). The 6-foot-9 sharpshooter is posting a scorching 44% mark from outside in conference play and already lit Cincinnati up for a season-high 35 points in these two team's first meeting.

Jackson runs the floor with energy and is using his large frame to create open shots with defenders near him. The perfect package is resulting in the best outside shooting season of any AAC player this season. His overall season-mark of 41.8% is 19th nationally.

The forward's game doesn't make a whole lot of sense when you dive into the analytics. For some reason, his clinical shooting isn't translating inside the arc—if it were—ECU would be in the top half of this bracket. Jackson's shooting 34.4% on two-point shots in conference play. He just can't find a rhythm inside the arc, and it's keeping him away from the FT line (2.6 FT attempts in conference play).

That played out expectedly in his best game of the year. Jackson went 8-of-11 from deep against Cincinnati, but just 5-of-13 inside the arc with two FT attempts. UC can't allow Jackson to pop off for 11 triple tries, but similar ball pressure close to the cup is crucial.

The final piece of note on the ECU roster is defensive maven Brandon Suggs (10.1 points in conference, 4.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists). Of the four Pirates who've played over 550 minutes this season, Suggs owns the best defensive rating among them (101.7). He is one of the better fundamental defenders in the AAC. At 6-foot-6, 205 pounds, Suggs can guard positions 1-4, and that versatility has made him unpredictable.

He owns the 11th-best steal rate in the AAC (3%) and is ninth in steals per game (1.6). Toss in the 12th-best block percentage, and you get a Swiss Army Knife defender.

Crisp exterior ball movement and forcing Newton/Jackson into uncomfortable areas will give Cincinnati a great chance to punch its ticket into the second round of the AAC Tournament.

The game tips off at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday afternoon. Fans can watch the game on ESPNU.

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