Game Preview: Can UC Hunt Down Its First Big 12 Win Over Baylor?

Cincinnati is favored to break its losing streak this weekend.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Oct 20, 2023 8:15 AM EDT

In this story:

CINCINNATI — UC football is trying to find some bit of light in this dark four-game losing streak as the 2-4 Baylor Bears come to town. Cincinnati has never faced the Bears as both programs slog through tough opening halves of the season.

Cincinnati enters the game as three-point favorites in a matchup that represents their best chance at a win for the rest of the season. ESPN gives UC a 72.6% chance to win the game, its highest win probability of any remaining matchup.

Baylor's alternated wins and losses over the past five weeks.

"Our guys have to realize how we got to this point and how we're going to get back out," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said this week. "It's through energy every day, working hard every day, and trying to find ways to get better. I think we have to utilize this and that's what I told our coaches and our whole staff Monday. We have to take advantage of this and even though we don't like this, we're here now. Let's do some great leadership and let's try to permeate that throughout our team so that they will grow and get better from this. So, that will hopefully scar down, and we'll learn and start getting some of these wins.”

Let's dive into Baylor's first trip to the Buckeye State for a football game since the early 1980s.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

The Bears are a tailor-made get-right opportunity for this Cincinnati offense. Baylor sports one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 115th nationally in EPA/play allowed and 107th in success rate.

That means they give up a lot of big plays (EPA) and consistently can't stop efficient plays snap-to-snap (success rate). It will be very sobering if Cincinnati can't get its rushing attack going outside of Emory Jones's legs.

The Bears are allowing 184.3 rushing yards per game (115th) and 14 rushing scores (108th). They are getting bludgeoned on the ground and now face a UC rushing attack ranked 34th in EPA/rush and 54th in success rate. UC has to be able to own the ground, control the clock, and then take advantage of the big pass play.

Baylor's best players are cornerbacks: Carl Williams IV and Caden Jenkins. They've combined for three interceptions, sub-55 passer ratings allowed, and the defense's top-two PFF grades (76.3, 78.9). But the rest of the secondary is far from lockdown. Baylor's allowed nine completions of 30-plus yards this season (50th most nationally) and sports a 49.5 PFF team tackling grade (eight-worst nationally).

"They were up against Utah earlier this year, and they are one of the better teams in the country," Satterfield said about the Bears. "They were up late in the fourth quarter, and they ended up losing that game. I think they are searching as well to get that win. They are coming off a bye week so I'm sure they are going to be fresh and healthy and ready to go. I believe that this game is going to come down to who wants it more. It is going to come down to who is hungry in this week of preparation and who really wants this game. We must do a better job with our energy and our attention to detail as we come out to play this game this weekend.”

Cincinnati's offense has struggled against great defenses (Oklahoma, Iowa State) but has performed respectably against units dealing with these kind of problems.

When Baylor Has The Ball

Once again, Cincinnati's secondary has a magnifying glass all over it.

Things have gone haywire ever since Sammy Anderson exited early in the season and it might be time to start throwing players at the wall and seeing who sticks.

The one thing Baylor can do well with quarterback Blake Shapen (74.8 PFF grade, second on Baylor offense) playing strong football off of injury is hit the explosive pass. They've blasted teams for 18 30-plus yard passing plays this season (fifth-most nationally).

"Teams must execute at a high level," Satterfield said about the Big 12. "I'm not just talking about offense; it is defense, as well as the kicking game. We had two kick returns this past weekend that put our defense in a poor position, we're putting our defense in a bad spot, with the interception and kick returns that Iowa State took almost all the way back. Those are the things we need to get much better at. We can't keep putting our defense in those bad positions. Likewise, offensively, we haven't started a drive on the plus territory in two and a half games. We're having to drive the length to the field and it's difficult to score in those situations.”

Cincinnati cannot continue to play decent football snap-to-snap and then get bombed on a late down as they did in each of their four losses. Baylor doesn't have a consistent offense by any means and it shows in the EPA/play to success rate comp (80th in EPA/play, 119th in success rate).

They shouldn't be dynamic at all in this one, sporting the 96th-ranked EPA/carry offense against UC's 17th-ranked rushing defense by EPA/play. There are no scary rushers on a team averaging 3.4 yards per carry with just seven ground scores.

Cincinnati's defensive line should be able to heavily impact this game if they can get any kind of help from the back end. Baylor is a decent pass-blocking team (71 grade, 50th nationally), but Shapen's had to hang onto the ball due to lacking receiver separation, leading to a whopping 18 sacks in six games (three per game, 111th nationally).

UC just posted its second-most pressures of the year (14), but only two sacks because ISU could get the ball out fast to open talents. The backend plays well, and UC could blow out the Bears. A big "could" as Cincinnati enters this game ranked second-to-last nationally in PFF team coverage grade (50.5 overall).

Prediction: Cincinnati 32-30

The secondary hemorrhages more big plays, but UC's front maulers do just enough to keep Baylor's offense from its highest point total of the year with a late-game turnover on downs.

Cincinnati manufactures a couple of big plays through the air and controls the clock on the ground to break the losing streak and sneak away with its first Big 12 victory.

The game is available on ESPN+ with kickoff at Noon ET.

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