Game Preview: Cincinnati Faces Tulsa on the Road for First Time Since 2016

The Bearcats may need to wake up the rushing attack to leave Oklahoma with a win.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Sep 29, 2022 9:41 AM EDT

CINCINNATI — The non-conference slate is wrapped up, and Cincinnati (3-1) enters the AAC schedule as clear favorites to win its third-straight conference championship. To get there, they'll have to navigate a tough road slate, starting with Saturday's game against Tulsa (2-2).

The Bearcats enter the game as 9.5-point favorites, and ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC winning 75.8% of the time. The Bearcats are ranked 14th in Bill Connelly's SP+, and Tulsa is ranked 74th.

Fans will remember how trepidatious this game was following College GameDay last season. The Bearcats never trailed in a 28-20 win, but that required eight stops inside their 12-yard line during the final two minutes.

"One of the first things we talked about coming into this season is to have an opportunity to play for championships, and that first and foremost starts with the conference championship," UC wide receiver Tyler Scott said on Tuesday. "This is our last year in the conference before we transition to the Big 12. So we definitely want to go out with a bang."

Let's dive into the preview as UC travels to face Tulsa for the first time in the Luke Fickell era.

A Golden Passing Hurricane

Tulsa is known for leaning on its running game against UC, but the passing attack is the top priority for the Blackcats defense this week.

Davis Brin's ankle injury status could decide the margins in this game.

The senior quarterback ranks fourth in the FBS in passing yards (358.5 per game), eighth in adjusted yards per attempt (11.5 YPA), t-eighth with 12 passing touchdowns, and is completing 63% of his throws. Brin has leveled up as the veteran leader of this team, and another veteran is his favorite weapon.

Wide receiver Keylon Stokes has notched 507 receiving yards and 126.8 yards per game to rank fourth in the FBS this season. The 5-foot-10-inch, 202-pound graduate receiver ranks seventh in the country in receptions per game (7.75).

Stokes has a similar playing style to Tre Tucker, as both rely on speed and separation to make big plays. He can operate all over the field and is especially deadly in the slot.

Tulsa has one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country, ranking 10th in passing EPA/play (0.387) and 15th in overall EPA/play (0.225).

"When you play 109 snaps, you get a lot of work at a lot of different things," UC head coach Luke Fickell said about the valuable passing-defense reps against Indiana. "They threw it 66 times. I think the best thing about Tulsa is their balance.

"They're fourth nationally in passing and up there in total offense and things like that. What's made them so good, and especially against us, is that they're balanced. They can and do throw the ball really well, but they rushed for 265 yards last week and last year against us it was over 200, and the year before that close as well. What they do, they do well, and it comes down to balance."

Forcing Tulsa to beat you with another 200-plus yard rushing day is the way to go. Leading rusher Steven Anderson (206 yards, four TDs) averages just four yards per carry, and they rank 57th in rushing EPA/play (0.04).

Looming Injuries

The Tulsa passing game gets a double dip on this preview for good reason. Brin suffered an ankle injury last week that knocked him out of the second half of a 35-27 loss at No. 16 Ole Miss.

In stepped freshman Braylon Braxton, who went nine of 21 passing for 83 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. Braxton added four carries for 39 yards, including a 17-yard gain. He's not at the level of Brin at this stage of his Tulsa career and could face a UC defense 21 spots better in the passing EPA rankings than Ole Miss.

Early reports are that Brin is progressing well this week, but we won't know his playing status until close to kickoff. Tulsa head coach Phillip Montgomery hinted Brin's injury isn't a serious one after the Ole Miss loss.

On the Cincinnati side of the pass defense, they could be without their top cornerback in Arquon Bush. He suffered an injury in the first half against Indiana.

Senior cornerback Justin Harris filled in admirably against Indiana, allowing four catches for 38 yards on 14 targets, with two pass breakups. Yet, he got called for three pass interferences. That's something to clean up this week as I'm not confident Bush will be 100% if he plays.

"We will find out today," Fickell said about Bush on Tuesday. "He'll give us a little something today, and we'll see how he progresses throughout the week. I thought at one time he might come back in last week, and maybe he could have, but we weren't going to."

Look for Harris to be the main man on the outside if Bush can't go, along with more snaps for freshman JQ Hardaway.

Run Game Woes

The rushing attack was a slog for UC during their non-conference affairs. They rank 82nd nationally in yards per carry (4.1), and the analytics paint a worse picture, with UC sitting at -0.183 EPA/rush (108th nationally).

Whether it's hitting the wrong hole, lack of push on the interior, or slow developing runs, UC has dealt with a diverse set of problems on this front.

"I give (Indiana) credit. They did a really good job," Fickell said about the rushing attack. "They were able to hone in on some specific things when they knew we were running the football that were a little bit more challenging. Not something that we weren’t prepared for, but in the way in which they played. I think they did a good job. They are pretty big and physical up front and forced us to probably run into a space where they wanted us to.

The Bearcats rushed for just 40 yards on 30 carries against the Hoosiers. That is the lowest total in a game during Luke Fickell's tenure, and just the second time UC's posted below two yards per carry during his time as head coach (Army, 2020).

"There are some things we definitely have to do better. That starts with moving people but also starts with getting fundamentally sound and doing enough that they can’t gang up on by knowing where it is you’re going to be. That’s twofold. That’s from us as a coaching staff to be able to give our guys different chances and be able to not do the same things we always do. It’s also on us to be able to move some people.”

Lucky for UC, Tulsa is terrible in pass coverage, allowing 0.334 EPA/pass (120th) nationally. The raw stats appear much better. Looking at yards per game (189 YPG allowed, 31st) and completion percentage (56.9%, 36th). Although, that includes a 54-17 win over FCS-Jacksonville State, where they held the Gamecocks to 87 yards passing. Those contests are not factored into the EPA figures we use.

Against competition as explosive as this Bearcats offense—Tulsa can be had through the air.

The Bearcats battle the Golden Hurricane at 7 p.m. on Saturday. Watch the game on ESPNU via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

Make sure you bookmark All Bearcats for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more.

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