Game Preview: Iowa State Rolls Into Nippert Stadium During Homecoming Week

Cincinnati and ISU have never faced on another in football.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Oct 12, 2023 11:05 AM EDT

In this story:

CINCINNATI — UC football welcomes Iowa State for Homecoming weekend as the two sides square off at noon inside Nippert Stadium on Saturday.

Cincinnati is one of the most prolific offenses in the country (11th nationally in total yards per game: 490) but has flubbed too many key plays in the past month. It's left them on a three-game losing streak as the program searches for its fourth-straight win off a bye week.

“Had a few days off now and we ready to get back on the field and play," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said this week. "The team is well rested now and last week I thought guys did a great job coming out and working. There were a couple of things we were trying to get better at. You're back from the off week and always looking and seeing things that you're a little deficient at and we certainly worked on those things. We also scrimmaged the young guys for three days last week and got some good work out of them as well, which is fun."

Cincinnati enters this matchup as five-point betting favorites and 63.9% favorites on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. UC is ranked 39th on ESPN's FPI to ISU's slightly lower standing at No. 44.

Let's dive into both sides of the ball as Iowa State guns for its first road win of the season.

When UC Has The Ball

A coverage Cyclone.

Iowa State's defense is powered by turnovers, and more specifically interceptions (10, third nationally). It's helped the entire team earn a top-20 turnover margin nationally, one of the most important factors in any football game.

Quarterback Emory Jones will need to be sharp if he wants to avoid the likes of safety Jeremiah Cooper (80.9 PFF grade, nation-leading four interceptions) and the rest of a deep secondary. Six of the nine top PFF-graded players on ISU's defense reside in the secondary.

“He's very athletic. He has good hips, he can run," Satterfield said about Cooper. "They're an aggressive secondary. They are a physical secondary; they're going to mix it up with the receivers. There are a lot of tight throws, it’s not like where you have some big windows. They're tight throwers and are on their guys pretty heavily. He did it against Oklahoma, it was a nice little pivot route by [Drake] Stoops and he undercut it and picked it off."

The Cyclones allow just a 54.1% completion rate (16th) and 6.1 yards per attempt (17th). Cashing in on a few big plays has been the one small opportunity to pounce on this defense (seven 30-plus yard pass plays allowed: 38th nationally)

The run defense is arguably just as good, if not a slight step down from the passing game. Linebacker Caleb Bacon (85.7 PFF grade) heads that unit as the highest-graded player on the team. He's one of the best-run defenders in the country and is one of five ISU players with 10-plus quarterback pressures this season.

Oh, and Iowa State ranks 32nd nationally with just 50% of opponent red zone tries going for TDs. This is the second-toughest defensive test of the season thus far behind Oklahoma.

When Iowa State Has The Ball

Early-down disruption and peppering a young quarterback—Cincinnati should win if its defense executes those two key factors.

Freshman quarterback Rocco Becht (1,223 passing yards, 10 TDs, five INTs on 60% completion) has played pretty well and is gaining more steam as the season goes on. He's completed more than a handful of major throws, has suffered nine drops (67.2% adjusted comp.), and has taken just three sacks all season (second nationally).

Cincinnati might have to blow up that last stat to break this losing streak. Statistically, this offense is far from high-powered (323 yards per game, 117th nationally). They thrive on limiting mistakes and doing just enough to aid that solid defense.

Receiving options like Jaylin Noel (31 catches 284 yards) have done a great job of getting open quickly to nullify a flat-out bad offensive line (48.4 pass-blocking grade: 120th nationally). Rushing-wise, the blocking's been even worse snap-to-snap (48.3 run block grade: 126th nationally, 3.9 yards per attempt: 93rd nationally)

“I think the quarterback’s starting to get settled in. I thought he played well against Oklahoma State. He sat in the pocket and threw some nice touchdown passes and had some big plays in the passing game. I think they want to run the football and they are going to do some things offensively to get some unbalance, shifts, motions, and all the things to try to mess up defenses and then run the ball. Their quarterback has done a really nice job of finding their receivers and making some big plays."

Cincinnati's front seven has a chance to impact a win like it did on the road against Pitt.

With the talent along that unit and a week of extra rest, there should be high expectations for havoc on Saturday. UC's biggest strength must clamp the Cyclones on early downs (ISU offense 130th nationally in early down EPA), force them into clear pass situations, and tick some more sacks on that slim tally.

Prediction: 24-17 Cincinnati

Emory Jones and the offense finally regress to the mean this week and go over 50% on RZ touchdown tries, thanks to some better starting field position than normal.

UC's defense powers the win with multiple sacks and one key turnover on a day where the Cyclones' offensive line bites them again on the road. ISU has a -33 point differential on the road this season, and that doesn't get chipped away inside Nippert Stadium. UC wins in a defensive battle like it has so many times in the past half-decade.

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