Multiple Bearcats Crack ESPN's Top-Five NFL Rookie Stats Projection

CINCINNATI — ESPN's Mike Clay unveiled his rookie projections for the 2022 season, and three Bearcats are forecasted near the top of their position group. Desmond Ridder (1,791 passing yards, 10 touchdowns) checked in with the third-best rookie season behind Kenny Pickett (2,308 yards, 12 touchdowns) and Matt Corral (1,931 yards, 9 touchdowns).

The computers are not bullish on this class to start their careers. Pickett's projected yardage total would be last among all rookie passers since Trent Edwards through for a rookie-leading 1,630 yards in 2007.

"Ridder (No. 74), Willis (No. 86), and Corral (No. 94) were selected in the third round," Clay wrote. "Ridder and Corral have the easiest path to significant rookie-season playing time, with Marcus Mariota and Sam Darnold their competition, respectively. Ridder and Corral are projected for eight starts, whereas Willis is barely expected to see the field behind veteran Ryan Tannehill. Of course, that might change if the Titans fall out of the playoff race."

Next up, Alec Pierce checked in at No. 5 with 746 receiving yards—trailing Chris Olave (847 yards), Garrett Wilson (857 yards), Treylon Burks (893 yards), and Drake London (967 yards). Pierce would rank fourth all-time in Indianapolis Colts rookie history if he posted at least 746 receiving yards.

"Second-rounder Pierce is a bit of a surprise on this list," Clay wrote. "But even in a run-heavy offense, he has a clear path to a big workload opposite Michael Pittman Jr. He just beat out Jameson Williams (No. 12 overall), who might miss time as he recovers from a torn ACL, as well as Jahan Dotson (No. 16), Christian Watson (No. 34) and Skyy Moore (No. 54)."

We round things out with Ahmad Gardner checking in at No. 5 on the rookie tackles list (68) and first in projected interceptions (2.1). He trailed Derek Stingley Jr. (71), Lewis Cine (80), Devin Lloyd (87), and Kyle Hamilton (87).

"Probable Day 1 starters Stingley and Gardner's projected tackle totals would rank fourth and seventh among first-round rookie corners over the past decade," Clay wrote.

Fans might be expecting a couple more picks out of Gardner, given the larger sample of games he's about to play, but Clay went conservative for a reason.

"I'll preface this with the same thing I said last year: These are going to seem ridiculously low at first glance," Clay wrote. "But that's intentional. Despite the extra game last season, rookies combined for only 31 interceptions. That's the fewest by a rookie class in over a decade, though not by a ton. In the same decade span, rookies are averaging 41.6 interceptions per season. First-round rookies combined for seven interceptions last season after totaling six in both 2019 and 2020."

A top-five season in tackles and the most interceptions would give Gardner a great chance of securing a rare Rookie of the Year award for a cornerback.

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