Preview Paw Prints: South Florida Bulls Game Two

Cincinnati could really use a winning streak at this point in the season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Feb 10, 2023 10:19 AM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (16-9, 7-5) are licking their wounds as South Florida (10-14, 3-8) rolls into Clifton this weekend.

UC blew a much-needed win at Tulane on Tuesday and lost two players to injury along the way (Viktor Lakhin, and Rob Phinisee). It's kept the team in a holding pattern as the fifth-best contender in the AAC standings.

Cincinnati can likely afford just one loss the rest of the season if it wants to capture a three-seed in the AAC tournament. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC beating KenPom's 138th-ranked team 89% of the time. The Bearcats rank 61st on KenPom.

Wes Miller's crew won easily 85-69 in the last USF meeting and has beaten the Bulls in 13 of the last 15 meetings.

Injury Questions

UCF Knights guard P.J. Edwards (5) passes as Cincinnati Bearcats guard Rob Phinisee (10) defends in the second half of a college basketball game between the UCF Knights and the Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday, Feb. 4, 2023, at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bearcats won, 73-64. Ucf Knights At Cincinnati Bearcats Feb 4 0353 — © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

It's been a few days since Phinisee (knee) and Lakhin (ankle) got knocked out of the Tulane loss with injuries. The exits were easy to notice.

Tulane posted 73 points after halftime and shot 22-of-31 from two-point range in the second half and overtime. UC losing its best on-ball defender, along with its lone rim protector, bred those results.

Miller described Phinisee's injury as more serious—and potentially season-ending. We have not gotten a firm update on either player, but Phinisee took to social media to thank people for all their support.

"Thank you for all the prayers and support! Gods plan," Phinisee tweeted on Wednesday.

It's a shame because Phinisee's defensive impact was really starting to show through in the past few games. Now, Cincinnati is down its top-two guard defenders, once again (No imminent return for John Newman III in the coming days).

Although, Phinisee's minutes are easier to fill in than Lakhin's. Landers Nolley II and David DeJulius can tap into more veteran moments down the stretch.

Center is a tougher conundrum.

Ody's Opportunity

Cincinnati Bearcats forward Ody Oguama (33) rises to the basket as South Florida Bulls guard Caleb Murphy (23) and South Florida Bulls forward Corey Walker Jr. (15) defend in the first half of a men's NCAA basketball game, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022, at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. South Florida Bulls At Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball 103 — © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

If Lakhin's injury clears up by Saturday night, USF should have very little chance of pulling a road upset. The Russian's already stymied 7-footer Russell Tchewa (11.4 Pts, 8.1 Reb, 1.0 Ast) once this season, but that size could give Oguama problems.

Lakhin celebrated on the bench with his teammates throughout the second half—but still had his ankle wrapped and was on crutches following the injury. Oguama's career night in relief was almost enough to will a gutty UC-win.

The forward tied a career-high with 16 points and posted a career-high 13 rebounds on Tuesday. Oguama was his normal active self and played much faster offensively than he has most of the season. When Oguama doesn't have to think about his next post move and can just dunk with his raw power—it produces efficient results.

Oguama can tap into some recent good memories against USF if he has to man the five spot full-time on Saturday. The senior posted his second-highest point total (9) and fourth-best rebound mark (6) in a win over the Bulls last month. Fouls are where things can go off the rails for UC's front court.

Oguama is averaging 2.4 fouls per game—and 5.5 per 40 minutes. In 36 minutes against USF over the past two seasons, Oguama's committed 7 fouls.

The Bulls aren't a team that punishes tendencies like this (241st in foul rate drawn per possession, 23.5%), but it's still something that could put UC in a serious pickle if Oguama isn't careful.

Heralded Harris

The Memphis Tigers guard Alex Lomax (2) guards South Florida guard Tyler Harris (2) during a game on Dec. 29, 2022 at the Fedex Forum in Memphis. Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls — © Stu Boyd II-The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK

The AAC's new all-time leader in made three-pointers battles UC this weekend. Guard Tyler Harris (17.4 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 3.2 Ast) set the mark in the Bulls' 99-81 loss to Memphis on Wednesday.

South Florida is about as run-of-the-mill as teams come in college basketball. They don't rank better than 70th in any major statistical category, but aren't at the bottom of many numbers either.

Harris and Nolley lead the conference in three-point percentage, as Harris makes 39% of his 7.8 triples per game. USF needs every one they can get out of the Memphis transfer. They rank 199th in team three-point percentage (33.9%) and have just one other rotation player who shoots better than 33.3% from deep (Selton Miguel, 35%).

Harris relies on the triple and free throw trips to make his impact. The guard shoots just 40.1% from inside the arc but is an 83.5% free throw shooter (seventh in AAC).

Only Tchewa takes more free throws per game for the Bulls than Harris (5.2 per game).

The 7-foot problem has had a great season, ranking third in the AAC in rebounds per game (8.1), and true shooting rate (61.5%). He's also 13th in offensive rating (114.5). Lakhin shut him down in the first meeting (8 points, 2-of-6 FGs, 2 rebounds). Can Oguama post a similar stifling?

Size discrepancy and positioning are the top things to watch in Saturday's most important individual matchup.

Cincinnati battles South Florida at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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