Three Storylines to Watch For Duke to Upset Georgia Tech

The 92nd meeting between the Blue Devils and Yellow Jackets carries plenty of ACC stakes. Georgia Tech strolls into Durham undefeated and ranked No. 12 in the latest AP Poll. Duke, meanwhile, has already stumbled twice but remains unbeaten in conference play and is fresh off a bye week.

Sep 30, 2023; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke helmet of Duke Blue Devils cornerback Chandler Rivers (0) with its slogan during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

This game could go a long way in deciding who competes for the ACC crown in Charlotte at the end of the season. Duke enters as a slim 1.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel, to upset the Yellow Jackets this weekend. Here are some of the biggest stories to watch as the Blue Devils aim for a signature victory.

1. Which ground game will control the game?

Oct 11, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Virginia Tech Hokies in the fourth quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Georgia Tech offense wants to do nothing but run the ball, and nobody has stopped them yet.

The Yellow Jackets have run for 19 touchdowns and 238 yards per game this season, 12th-most in the country. They have had at least one rusher over 100 yards in all six games this season, and their quarterback is a big reason why.

Sep 20, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz during the second quarter against the NC State Wolfpack at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Quarterback Haynes King leads the team in carries (87), rushing yards (440), and touchdowns (9). Georgia Tech isn't exactly running an Army-style offense, but it might be the next closest thing.

When Georgia Tech needs to move the chains on third or fourth down, Brent Key often puts the ball in his quarterback's arms. Jamal Haynes and Malachi Hosley have also become steady options in the backfield and will be a worthy challenge for the Duke defense.

Sep 27, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) tries to hold off a tackle by Syracuse Orange defensive back Demetres Samuel Jr. (1) in the second quarter at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Duke has their own running back committee with freshman Nate Shepard and senior Anderson Castle. Sheppard is the one to watch as he has only gotten better in recent weeks. The freshman has led a ground attack with 157 rushing yards a game this year.

Sheppard has paced the Blue Devils with 447 yards and four touchdowns this season. He broke off a late 46-yard touchdown run against Cal in Duke's last game, and his speed out of the backfield makes him a candidate for a long carry to the house at any moment.

Sep 24, 2016; South Bend, IN, USA; A Duke Blue Devils helmet sits on the turf before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Duke won 38-35. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

The matchup between these backfields and the trenches might decide the game. Georgia Tech doesn't have a receiver with more than 250 yards this season. They want to run the ball until they are forced to do something different.

Duke's offense might have more ways to score, but the Yellow Jackets can control the pace. If Duke can win that battle as well, Georgia Tech's passing game falls into their favor.

2. Will Darian Mensah deliver late in a close game?

Oct 4, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws on the run against the California Golden Bears during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Saying Mensah can't win a big game would be harsh, but Saturday is a great opportunity for him to show that he is one of the best passers in the country.

Between last season at Tulane and so far this season at Duke, Mensah has yet to win a game against a ranked opponent. He lost matchups with Kansas State, Oklahoma and Army when he was in New Orleans and already lost against a ranked Illinois squad this season.

Oct 26, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils defensive tackle Aaron Hall (99) takes off his helmet prior to the first half of the game against Southern Methodist Mustangs at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

The Illinois game has to stand out in Mensah's mind. The game was much closer than the 45-19 final score might suggest, but the Blue Devils turned the ball over five times. Mensah was the root of three of those turnovers, tossing one interception and losing two fumbles.

Aug 28, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) goes to throw the ball against the Elon Phoenix during the first half at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images | James Guillory-Imagn Images

The Duke offense has rebounded nicely to the tune of the 20th-best offense in the country in terms of total yardage, averaging 467 yards a game, and scoring 42.6 points per game during conference play.

Mensah has done a good job spreading the ball around to different receivers this season, keeping defenses on their toes.

Oct 4, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Three unidentified Duke Blue Devils fans arrive before their team takes on the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech has struggled in recent weeks to slow down passing attacks in the ACC. If this game comes down to the final drive, it would be a great time for Mensah to show that he's worth the investment Manny Diaz and Duke put into him this offseason.

3. Can Duke start fast?

Despite winning in blowout fashion in each of their three ACC games so far, the Blue Devils have had to play from behind early on. Against NC State, the Blue Devils fell behind 20-7 at home in the second quarter before rattling off three straight touchdowns to take the lead and never look back.

On the road at Cal, Duke once again fell behind early, this time 21-7, and scored 38 unanswered points to win easily.

Nov 19, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Duke Blue Devils helmets on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The hope is that a week off has given the Blue Devils a chance to rest and come out ready to go on Saturday. Given the prowess of the Georgia Tech run game, it's possible the Yellow Jackets could take an early lead and then grind out the clock on the ground, keeping the Duke defense on the field.

Oct 21, 2017; Durham, NC, USA; The Duke Blue Devils and ACC logo on the pylon during the game against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images | Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images

That doesn't mean Diaz and Jonathan Brewer need to start the game taking shots downfield, but rather need to do something creative to set the tone early on. Leaning on Sheppard against a weak Georgia Tech interior would control the pace, but Mensah could have success on the perimeter with Cooper Barkate and Que'Sean Brown.

Whatever route the offense decides will be important to establishing an identity for the rest of the game. If Duke wins the coin toss, it might not be a bad idea for Diaz to opt to take the ball first. We'll find out on Saturday.

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