Duke Stunningly Stays Put Per Stingy Computer Metrics

After the No. 3-ranked Duke Blue Devils (25-2, 13-1 ACC) picked up what could be the best win of the entire college basketball season thus far, defeating No. 1 Michigan 68-63 in Washington, D.C. on Saturday night, it was expected that the Blue Devils would jump to the top spot in practically every computer metric, as well as become the new No. 1 team in the Associated Press Top 25.

The new AP Poll will be released on Monday, and it would be an utter shock if Duke doesn't jump from No. 3 to No. 1. After the huge victory over the Wolverines, the Blue Devils are now 13-2 in Quadrant 1, 16-2 across the first two quadrants, and 9-2 against ranked teams this season.

Feb 14, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer (right) argues with an official during the first half against the Clemson Tigers at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Both of Duke's losses have come by a combined four points, and it is about two minutes of game time from being 27-0 through the better part of the regular season.

Nonetheless, Duke now officially owns the best resume in the entire sport. The Blue Devils' nine wins over ranked teams are the most of any team in college basketball, and their 13 Quad 1 victories are also the most of any team in the sport.

Feb 16, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) lays the ball up for a basket against the Syracuse Orange during the during the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

However, Duke remained in the same spot in both the NCAA NET Rankings and at KenPom, at least for now.

Feb 10, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) dribbles the ball as Pittsburgh Panthers guard Nojus Indrusaitis (right) defends during the second half at Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Duke Doesn’t Move in Computer Rankings Despite Signature Victory

Michigan and Duke entered the heavyweight bout on Saturday night as the top two teams in both the NET Rankings and at KenPom, respectively. It felt like whichever program came out on top in that game would seal the top spot in most computer metrics, at least for the time being.

But that's not the case. As of Feb. 22, the Blue Devils are still No. 2 in both the NET and at KenPom, still trailing Michigan despite owning four more Quad 1 wins than the Wolverines, and obviously owning a head-to-head victory.

Duke is currently seventh nationally at KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency and second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The only other programs in the top ten of both those metrics are Michigan, Houston, and Arizona.

Feb 16, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) brings the ball around Syracuse Orange forward William Kyle (42) during the during the first half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Blue Devils Lock Up Top Overall Seed

Despite Duke staying behind Michigan in the main computer metrics, there's no doubt that it will move to the top projected overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Entering Saturday, Michigan was the top projected overall seed, and Duke was the projected second 1-seed.

The Blue Devils now control their own destiny in terms of earning the top bid in this season's big dance.

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