How Week 10 Victory Impacted Duke's Bowl Projections

Duke picked up its fifth win of the season last week, taking down Clemson in a 46-45 shootout at Memorial Stadium. Manny Diaz brought his team back to the ACC discussion by taking advantage of the bye week following a loss to Georgia Tech.

Oct 18, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz reacts during the second half of the game against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Darian Mensah carried the Blue Devils offensively once again, throwing for 361 yards and four touchdowns against the Tigers. He also led a 94-yard touchdown drive and a 2-point conversion to take the lead with 40 seconds remaining and eventually win the game.

The Blue Devils have so much talent offensively to share the rock with. Cooper Barkate has become Mensah's go-to target, leading the team with 45 catches for 774 yards and five touchdowns. Que'Sean Brown returned to Durham and has excelled from the slot, posting 37 catches for 523 yards and three touchdowns, two of which came against the Tigers.

Come for the touchdown... stay for the thriller celly 😂 pic.twitter.com/NEda0aRYCo
— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) November 3, 2025

Duke has also had a revelation in the backfield with freshman Nate Sheppard, who has paced the rushing attack alongside Appalachian State transfer Anderson Castle. The true freshman back has racked up 557 yards on the ground with five scores.

Sep 27, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) tries to break a tackle by Syracuse Orange defensive lineman Nathan Nyandoro (30) in the fourth quarter at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Defensively, the Blue Devils leave something to be desired. Despite having star players across the board, they have been banged up along the way and haven't put everything together. Chandler Rivers is a lockdown corner, but the rest of the defensive back room badly misses safety Terry Moore.

Duke has one of the worst pass defenses in the ACC, but does a solid job on the ground and rushing the passer. Vincent Anthony Jr. and Wesley Williams have combined for 8.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss this season, thriving on the edges.

Sep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils cornerback Chandler Rivers (0), linebacker Jaiden Francois (2) and cornerback Kimari Robinson (5) celebrate a tackle by defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr.'s (7) against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

A 5-3 mark after ten weeks doesn't scream "contender", but the Blue Devils do have a path to the ACC title game. Georgia Tech's loss to NC State last week brought the Blue Devils closer, even though the Yellow Jackets hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Teams in front of Duke right now will have to play each other soon, which will only move the Blue Devils up the ladder even more, should they take care of their own business. Duke's game against No. 14 Virginia next week will be monumental to the team's ACC and College Football Playoff hopes.

Duke Blue Devils wide receiver Sahmir Hagans (2) returns a kickoff for a touchdown Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

November is a long month of football where a lot can happen, but Duke fans should still feel confident with where this team is. We took a look around the nation to see where outlets have the Blue Devils playing during bowl season. Here's what we found:

National Bowl Projections

Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) yells to the sideline Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

CBS Sports: Liberty Bowl | Duke vs Houston (Jan. 2)

College Football News: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs LSU (Jan. 2)

Duke Blue Devils tight end Landen King (0) celebrates after getting a first down while being defended by Clemson Tigers defensive back Ronan Hanafin (5) Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN No. 1: Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl | Duke vs Arizona State (Dec. 31)

ESPN No. 2: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Missouri (Jan. 2)

Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz high-fives players Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On SI: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Vanderbilt (Jan. 2)

USA Today: Birmingham Bowl | Duke vs Memphis (Dec. 29)

Bowl Prediction

Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws the ball Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Holiday Bowl | Duke vs USC (Jan. 2)

I'm sticking with the Holiday Bowl here because the Blue Devils seem destined to finish at least fourth place in the ACC. That would allow them to go to San Diego for this game against the Trojans, who might finish with the fourth-best record among former Pac-12 teams.

Clemson Tigers running back Gideon Davidson (9) is tackled by a group of Duke Blue Devils players Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Duke's offense will keep them competitive in every game and will even win them some, like it did against Clemson. However, the defense is too banged up and the roller coaster of performances makes it hard to say that the Blue Devils will sneak into the ACC title game or the 12-team playoff.

Duke finishes the year at UConn this week, before hosting No. 14 Virginia, traveling to face North Carolina, and rounding out the year at home against Wake Forest. Those are all teams playing better lately with postseason ambitions of their own.

Duke Blue Devils wide receiver Andrel Anthony (1) celebrates after scoring a touchdown Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I think there is still another loss in the cards for the Blue Devils, either in the regular season or in the conference title game, but the next two weeks could change everything. For now, let's stick around the 8-win mark, or the 9-win mark with an ACC Championship appearance.

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