Behind The Numbers: FCS Playoffs Quarterfinals Preview
Before the playoffs, we took an in-depth statistical look at each playoff team and used those statistics to look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Below we go behind the numbers for each quarterfinal matchup of the FCS Playoffs.
NOTE: Overall statistical rankings come from FCS Football Central’s average of several important factors. Rankings can be found in the Behind The Numbers article below. The rankings have been adjusted to 1-8 for the 8 teams left in the Quarterfinals.
No. 7 Furman vs No. 2 Montana
The first quarterfinal game will see two of the best rushing defenses in the nation compete on Friday night. Furman has the second-best rush defense of remaining playoff teams (2.8 YPC Allowed) and Montana only allows 3.26 yards per carry. Both defensive fronts are aggressive and rely on generating negative plays. The main difference between these two defenses is in the secondary. Montana only allows 6.28 yards per pass attempt while Furman allows 7.22 yards per pass, while ranks last among postseason teams. Furman has some notable playmakers in the secondary (Travis Blackshear & Cally Chizik), but the Paladins also tend to allow explosive plays down the field.
While both defenses are stellar, this game will be determined by which team can produce on the offensive side of the ball. Montana's offense has excelled at creating explosive plays with its talented receiving core. Junior Bergen, Keelan White, and Aaron Fontes have all had receptions of over 50 yards in the last half of the season. This group is playing like one of the best wide receiver groups in the entire nation. They have been a key piece in the development of quarterback Clifton McDowell throughout the season. Freshman running back Eli Gillman contributes to Montana’s explosive play rate of 11.63%.
Offensively, Furman needs to establish this game's tempo in a very hostile environment. The Paladins will need to lean on their experienced offensive line and make this a low-possession game to have a chance. Being able to establish a consistent rushing game will determine if Furman can pull off the upset. The Paladins will need Tyler Huff’s legs to contribute in the run game and Huff will need to make some big throws in crucial moments. If Huff can do this and protect the football, Furman has a chance to pull off the big upset. If Furman turns the ball over, lets the game become an up-tempo game, and lets the crowd into it, the Paladins will likely see this game get away from them.
No. 8 Villanova vs No. 1 South Dakota State
This game is between the two most statistically impressive teams in the nation. South Dakota State's dominance is obvious, and the Jackrabbits are the heavy favorite to win the FCS national championship. The Jackrabbits rank in the top three for every individual offensive statistical category. South Dakota State also has the No. 1 overall defense remaining in the field. Despite being the heavy underdog, Villanova also entered the playoffs as the only team outside of the Jackrabbits that was ranked top five in both overall offense and defense. The Wildcats will also have a lot of confidence after dismantling another MVFC team (Youngstown State) just a week ago. Villanova is stout across both lines of scrimmage and will have to remain so if the Wildcats want this game to be competitive.
Offensively, Villanova wants to establish the rushing attack with its talented stable of running backs and create one-on-one matchups down the field. Villanova ranks No. 1 in the FCS with an explosive play rate of 16% and the Wildcats average an incredible 17.8 yards per completion. If South Dakota State can stop the run consistently while keeping both safeties deep and out of the box, this will be a long afternoon for the Wildcats. Quarterback Connor Watkins will need to get involved in the run game if the Wildcats want to draw the South Dakota State secondary into the box and create chances to take some shots deep.
South Dakota State has the second-highest explosive play rate on offense and if the Jackrabbits can limit Villanova’s offense, this game could get out of hand. Villanova has a tough defense that is filled with playmakers at all three levels, but the Wildcat defense is not built to hold this offense down all game. Villanova will need to create turnovers to have a chance in this game. The Wildcats should present a stiffer test than many teams in the field could give South Dakota State, but unless Villanova can build an early lead, expect the Jacks to pull away late.
North Dakota State vs No. 3 South Dakota
South Dakota led the entire game and defeated the Bison, 24-19, in a huge Week 4 matchup in the Fargodome. In the first game, South Dakota was able to control the tempo of the game as the Coyotes only ran 40 offensive plays and scored on four of the five possessions, not counting end-of-half possessions. Three of the four scores were touchdowns as South Dakota was incredibly efficient and exploited a Cam Miller interception to break the game open. The Coyotes have excelled at keeping everything underneath and preventing explosive plays (7% Explosive Play Rate).
The Bison have excelled at creating explosive plays throughout the season. North Dakota State creates explosive plays on 14.5% of all offensive plays. In the first game, Miller had one critical interception, which was costly for the Bison. The other big factors will be creating explosive plays and efficiency on third down. The advantage for South Dakota seems to come in that first category. South Dakota’s defense is elite at preventing explosive plays while the North Dakota State defense tends to allow explosive plays at a much higher rate, which was evident in two explosive touchdowns by Carter Bell in the first matchup. This game is going to be one of the tightest games of the weekend and will be must-see TV on ABC at 1:30 p.m. CT.
No. 5 UAlbany vs No. 4 Idaho
While South Dakota vs North Dakota State may be the tightest game of the weekend, but this matchup in the Kibbie Dome may be the most exciting game. There are exciting playmakers on both sides of the ball for each team. This matchup will be defined by how the Idaho offensive line will handle an elite UAlbany defensive line. Idaho will need to establish the run with Anthony Woods and Nick Romano but Idaho is only averaging 4.5 yards per carry and will face the No. 1 rushing defense in the FCS. The Great Danes allow 2.61 yards per carry, led by linebackers Dylan Kelly and Ori Jean-Charles who have over 200 combined tackles this season. Idaho will have a massive advantage with wide receivers Hayden Hatten and Jermaine Jackson against the UAlbany secondary, but the Idaho offensive line needs to give quarterback GeVani McCoy enough time to make plays down the field. The Vandals have allowed pressure on almost 40% of dropbacks this season and the offensive line will face the toughest test of the season. UAlbany is led by defensive ends Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon who have combined for 26.5 sacks this season. Idaho struggled against both Montana and Southern Illinois as GeVani McCoy had to run for his life and make plays under duress throughout the game. The good news for the Vandals is McCoy can make plays outside the pocket, but it will still limit what Idaho can do offensively this weekend.
UAlbany will rely on quarterback Reese Poffenbarger to make big plays down the field. Poffenbarger has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 33 touchdowns this season. The Vandals have the No. 1 pass defense in the playoff field and Idaho has playmakers throughout the secondary, led by cornerback Marcus Harris. Despite Poffenbarger's impressive numbers, he has only completed 57% of his passes and has thrown 10 interceptions. If Poffenbarger puts the ball in danger, the Idaho defense can create chaos and change the course of this game. Idaho’s defensive line is also playing their best defense of the season. Idaho harassed Southern Illinois quarterback Nic Baker last week, recording over 20 pressures, and held the Salukis to only 3.6 yards per carry.
The amount of playmakers would make many people think this game will feature a lot of points, but the matchup also looks good for both defenses. This may be a tight, low-scoring game decided by which offense makes the fewest mistakes. The team that can keep its composure and makes plays in crucial moments will likely win this game. Special teams could be another deciding factor as the Vandals have one of the best special team units in the FCS.
