FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: No. 5 UAlbany at No. 4 Idaho
This will be the first matchup between these two programs, but Idaho will host UAlbany on Sep. 14 next season for a massive rematch of this quarterfinal game. The Great Danes are looking to make the first appearance in the semifinals in school history, while the Vandals will look to win the first quarterfinal game since 1993.
The winner of this game will advance to face the winner of No. 1 South Dakota State vs. No. 8 Villanova in the semifinals of the FCS Playoffs.
2023 Predictions Record: 84-40
2022 Predictions Record: 115-35
UAlbany (10-3) @ Idaho (9-3)
Kickoff: 9:00 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Line: Idaho (-4)
Series History: First Meeting
Key Players: Idaho
Gevani McCoy (QB): 205 for 311 (65.9%), 2,593 Passing Yards, 14 Passing TDs, 8 INTs, 2 Rushing TDs
Anthony Woods (RB): 190 Carries, 1,051 Rushing Yards, 5.5 YPC, 15 Rushing TDs
Hayden Hatten (WR): 81 Receptions, 1,096 Receiving Yards, 13.5 YPC, 9 Receiving TDs
Jermaine Jackson (WR): 44 Receptions, 527 Receiving Yards, 11.9 YPC, 1 Receiving TD, 674 Return Yards, 2 Punt Return TDs
Marcus Harris (CB): 47 Total Tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 9 PBUs
Xe'ree Alexander (LB): 70 Total Tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 Forced Fumbles, 1 Blocked Kick
Key Players: UAlbany
Reese Poffenbarger (QB): 223 for 387 (57.6%), 3,030 Passing Yards, 33 Passing TDs, 10 INTs, 5 Rushing TDs
Brevin Easton (WR): 44 Receptions, 827 Receiving Yards, 18.8 YPC, 10 Receiving TDs
Julian Hicks (WR): 41 Receptions, 709 Receiving Yards, 17.3 YPC, 11 Receiving TDs
Anton Juncaj (DL): 53 Total Tackles, 20.5 TFLs, 14 Sacks, 10 QBHs, 4 Forced Fumbles
AJ Simon (DL): 50 Total Tackles, 21 TFLs, 12.5 Sacks, 17 QBHs, 2 Forced Fumbles
Dylan Kelly (LB): 148 Total Tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 2 INTs, 2 Fumble Recoveries
UAlbany was picked to finish 11th in the CAA entering the season, but the Great Danes have emerged as one of the best teams in the country. The Great Danes have won six consecutive games, including a dominant 41-13 victory over Richmond in the second round of the FCS Playoffs.
The identity of this team is a dominant defense as the Great Danes rank No. 1 among playoff teams in yards per play allowed (4.42 YPP Allowed). The defense is led by two of the best pass rushers in the country: Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon. The elite play from Juncaj and Simon allows linebackers Dylan Kelly and Ori Jean-Charles to play free at the second level of the defense. All of the talent in the front seven is why UAlbany enters this game with the No. 1 rushing defense in the FCS (76.1 YPG Allowed). The Great Danes have only allowed one FCS opponent to surpass the 100-yard mark this season.
Quarterback Reese Poffenbarger has continued to emerge as one of the best young quarterbacks in the FCS. He leads the country in passing touchdowns (33) and has shown the ability to make clutch plays in critical moments this season. The Great Danes are loaded with offensive weapons, including wide receiver Brevin Easton and running back Griffin Woodell. The question will be Poffenbarger's ability to protect the ball against an experienced secondary for the Vandals.
Idaho escaped with a 20-17 victory over Southern Illinois last weekend as special teams played a huge role in the comeback win for the Vandals. Kicker Ricardo Chavez is one of the best kickers in the country and is 16-of-18 on field goal attempts. Jermaine Jackson has recorded over 600 return yards and two return touchdowns this season, which could be one of the biggest factors to watch this weekend.
The question mark for the Vandals will be the offensive line this weekend. Idaho ranks last among playoff teams in pressure rate and has allowed 31 sacks this season, which ranks No. 89 nationally. Quarterback Gevani McCoy can make plays outside the pocket, but allowing McCoy to find his rhythm will be extremely important on Saturday night. The matchup between wide receiver Hayden Hatten and cornerback Amir Hall (5 INTs; 13 PBUs) is going to be a crucial battle throughout the game.
Running back Anthony Woods will be the x-factor in this game. The Vandals will need to establish the run against the Great Danes to help ease the burden of the offensive line in passing situations. Idaho is also 12-0 under head coach Jason Eck when rushing for 150 yards or more. Expect the Vandals to give the ball to Woods early and often this weekend.
Defensively, the Vandals need another clutch performance from one of the best secondaries in the country. Idaho ranks No. 8 in the FCS in passing yards allowed (168.9 YPG Allowed), led by cornerback Marcus Harris and safety Tommy McCormick (62 Tackles; 5 PBUs). If the Vandals can force Poffenbarger into mistakes early, then the Vandals have an excellent shot at securing a spot in the semifinals.
Idaho enters this game as slight favorites and the Great Danes will have to travel across the country for a late kickoff (10 p.m. ET), which could play a small factor this weekend. College football is all about matchups and UAlbany is an extremely tough matchup for the Vandals. Despite the offensive talent for the Vandals, UAlbany's defense will dominate the line of scrimmage and Poffenbarger will make enough plays down the stretch to escape the Kibbie Dome with an upset victory.
Prediction: UAlbany (27-23)
