FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 9 (Week 11)
After each week we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2023 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.
Teams that are “Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups and “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs. 39 teams are mentioned in this week's playoff picture, but only 24 will get in later this season.
Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference.
Big Sky
Locks: Montana State, Idaho, Montana
Montana picked up a huge win over Sacramento State this weekend and it puts the Grizzlies one step closer to winning the Big Sky title and locking up the No. 2 overall seed. The Grizzlies will still need a win in the Brawl of the Wild in the final game of the season to secure a Top-2 seed. Idaho scraped by Northern Colorado and avoided a trap game letdown after their big win over Montana State. Idaho can still earn the No. 2 overall seed if Montana falls to the Bobcats in the final week of the season. The Vandals must focus on winning the final two games of the season and should be locked into a top-four seed. Montana State could potentially still earn a top-four seed if the Bobcats can get a win over Eastern Washington and then go to Montana and win. The Bobcats would love to have a quarterfinal matchup in Bozeman rather than having to travel and a win could lock the Bobcats into that spot.
Should be in: Sacramento State
Sacramento State had a troubling performance last Saturday in Montana, losing 34-7 in blowout fashion. The Hornets have lost two of their last four games and unraveled down the stretch in Missoula. The Hornets should not be in any trouble of missing the playoffs but have now likely missed out on an opportunity to earn a seed. The Hornets need wins against Cal Poly and UC Davis to secure a spot in the postseason.
Work to Do: UC Davis
UC Davis won an important game against Portland State this weekend. The win eliminated the Vikings from playoff consideration. The Aggies have kept themselves alive but will need a win against Sacramento State at the end of the season to earn a spot in the bracket. UC Davis already has four losses and zero ranked wins, but if they can win out and get to 7-4, the Aggies will receive serious consideration. UC Davis does have the No. 21 strength of schedule and the offense has improved a lot with the return of star running back Lan Larison.
Big South – OVC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Gardner-Webb, UT Martin, SEMO
Gardner-Webb’s playoff position improved by a large amount after SEMO lost to Robert Morris last weekend. The Runnin’ Bulldogs escaped Saturday with a 45-44 win over Bryant. Gardner-Webb, SEMO, and UT Martin are all tied with one conference loss and Gardner-Webb has a win over UT Martin, giving them the advantage in the conference race. This week SEMO plays at UT Martin in a huge showdown. SEMO can stay in control of the conference race with a win, but the Redhawks offense has really struggled without quarterback Paxton DeLaurent the last two weeks. It is hard to imagine SEMO winning at UT Martin without DeLaurent. Gardner-Webb controls its own destiny if the Skyhawks can get the win on Saturday and will earn the auto-bid with two more wins. Gardener-Webb has games against Tennessee Tech and Charleston Southern remaining on the schedule.
Gardner-Web has the best out-of-conference resume of the group. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have the No. 30 ranked strength of schedule with wins over Elon and Eastern Kentucky. However, Gardner-Webb would only get an at-large bid if SEMO were to earn the auto-bid. The Runnin’ Bulldogs will be out of the at-large debate if they take another loss. If the Skyhawks were to win out and lose the auto-bid to Gardner-Webb, this team would have an interesting case for an at-large bid. UT Martin would be 9-1 against the FCS and the committee may have a hard time leaving out a team that has nine wins against the FCS. The only thing working against UT Martin is that the strength of schedule is No. 67 and the Skyhawks have zero ranked wins.
CAA
Locks: None
Should be in: UAlbany, Villanova, Delaware
The CAA race is total chaos at the top after Delaware's upset loss to Elon on Saturday. Five teams are tied for first place with a conference record of 5-1 and three of those teams are in the “Should be in” category. Even after the loss, Delaware should be safe as long as the Blue Hens win one of their two final games against Campbell and Villanova. UAlbany may have the easiest road to making the postseason and is the CAA’s best shot at a potential seed. The Great Danes are 7-1 against the FCS and have a good chance to get to win nine games this season. The Great Danes will bring one of the nation’s best defenses to the FCS playoffs with two more wins. Villanova is also 7-1 against the FCS and their only loss is on the road against UAlbany. Outside of that game, the Wildcats have beaten every FCS opponent they have faced by double digits and have the best statistical profile of anyone in the conference. Villanova has a game against Towson this weekend and will move to “Lock” status with a win. As long as both Delaware and Villanova win this weekend, both teams will make the field regardless of who wins in the final game of the regular season.
Work to do: Elon, Richmond, Rhode Island, William & Mary
Elon and Richmond both have 5-1 conference records and are tied for first in the CAA standings. Elon has a strange resume as the Phoenix lost all three of their out-of-conference games while dominating in conference play. Richmond also has a weak resume outside of CAA play, while also having losses against Hampton and Morgan State. Even though both Richmond and Elon are tied for first in the standings, when these teams play against each other on Saturday it is an elimination game. Elon cannot afford another loss and Richmond would not have a strong enough resume at 7-4. Rhode Island is 5-4 but has a good chance to finish the season at 7-4 with games against North Carolina A&T and Towson remaining. The problem is that Rhode Island does not have a signature win on its resume. With two wins to close the season the Rams would gain consideration, but they would probably need a lot of help to earn an at-large bid. William & Mary will still receive consideration because they can still reach seven wins and the Tribe is still somehow receiving votes in both the Coaches Poll and Media Poll. Unfortunately for The Tribe, the play on the field has been poor the last few weeks and a 6-5 or 5-6 finish seems a lot more likely than a 7-4 finish.
MVFC
Locks: South Dakota State, South Dakota
South Dakota State continued to show their dominance with a 33-16 win over North Dakota State and the Jackrabbits are almost certain to earn the No. 1 overall seed for the playoffs. The Jackrabbits have an incredible five ranked wins and were dominant in most of those wins. South Dakota joins the Jackrabbits as the second MVFC to earn “Lock” status after a 14-7 win at Southern Illinois. The win gives the Coyotes another impressive road win (NDSU) and a 7-1 record against the FCS. The Coyotes are now one of the favorites to earn a seed and will finish the season with a minimum of eight wins.
Should be in: Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois remains in the “Should be in” tier because the Salukis have the No. 12 ranked strength of schedule, an FBS win over Northern Illinois, and a great out-of-conference win over Austin Peay. However, the Salukis will need to win one of the final two games against North Dakota State and Indiana State. Southern Illinois should be able to win against Indiana State but the offense has really struggled in recent weeks. If the Salukis can get a win this Saturday in Fargo, this team will lock in their at-large bid.
Work to do: Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, North Dakota State, North Dakota, Illinois State
Three of out these five teams will earn at-large bids, meaning that two of them will be left out. Northern Iowa still has the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country and wins over Youngstown State, North Dakota, and Illinois State. The Panthers play Missouri State and North Dakota State in the final two weeks. Youngstown State has the No. 19 strength of schedule and impressive wins over Southern Illinois and Illinois State on the resume. North Dakota and North Dakota State both have resumes that lack in important areas. Neither team has a very impressive win on their schedule and the only thing separating them is the 49-24 win for North Dakota over the Bison. Both teams have huge opportunities to solidify their at-large spots this weekend. North Dakota travels to play South Dakota and the Bison hosts Southern Illinois. Both teams also have a difficult game in the final week of the season and are in danger of going 6-5 and being left out altogether. Illinois State is hanging on by a thread and must win the last two weeks to even earn consideration.
NEC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Duquesne, Merrimack
Duquesne won a huge game against Wagner last weekend and is one step closer to the NEC title. The Dukes will need to win against Stonehill this weekend to lock up the NEC auto-bid. Merrimack’s chances have completely dwindled and need a Stonehill upset over Duquesne, a win over Central Connecticut, and a win over the Dukes in the final week of the season. Duquesne is a huge favorite to represent the conference in the 2023 FCS playoffs.
Patriot
Locks: None
Should be in:
Work to do: Lafayette, Holy Cross, Fordham
Lafayette almost had the league title wrapped up last weekend, but the Leopards lost to Colgate in overtime. Now Lafayette will travel to Fordham and a loss could cost this team a championship. If Fordham can upset the Leopards this weekend, Holy Cross will gain the conference advantage. The Crusaders would then only need to win their final conference game against Georgetown in Week 12 to earn the auto-bid. Fordham needs to beat Lafayette this weekend and Georgetown beat Holy Cross in Week 12 to have a shot at the title. The health of Holy Cross star quarterback Matthew Sluka may be a huge factor in who wins the conference. Despite all of that, Lafayette still controls their own destiny and just needs to beat Fordham and Lehigh to secure the auto-bid. While both Fordham and Holy Cross have the potential of an FBS win on their schedule, neither team’s resume is good enough to make the playoffs as an at-large bid.
Pioneer
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Davidson, Drake
Right now, Davidson and Drake are tied for the conference lead at 6-0. The Wildcats and the Bulldogs do not play each other but Davidson currently has the advantage. The tie-breaker rules in the Pioneer will compare the record of Drake and Davidson against a common opponent highest in the standings. Right now, that opponent looks to be Butler. Davidson has already beaten Butler while Drake will play Butler at the end of the year. If Drake can win that game, the tie-breaker will extend further down the criteria and it is not clear enough to tell who would have the advantage yet.
SoCon
Locks: Furman
Furman locked up the SoCon auto-bid with their 17-14 win over Chattanooga last Saturday. Now the Paladins are only playing to impress and possibly earn the No. 2 overall seed. Earning home-field advantage could be huge for the Paladins in the postseason.
Should be in: Western Carolina
Western Carolina finally ended a two-game losing streak with a win over Wofford in Week 10. The Catamounts remain in the “Should be in” tier and play teams from the bottom of the SoCon over the final two weeks. As long as Western Carolina wins the final two games, the Catamounts will earn an at-large bid.
Work to do: Mercer, Chattanooga
Chattanooga had an opportunity to win the SoCon this weekend but fell short in a 17-14 loss to Furman. The Mocs only have one game remaining, a matchup against Alabama. Chattanooga will finish the season 7-4 and have a bad loss to North Alabama on the resume. The situation for the Mocs feels identical to last season when this team finished 7-4 and was left out of the playoffs. The Mocs can still find a way to sneak in but they will need several teams on the bubble to lose and help them out. Mercer can capitalize on Chattanooga’s downfall and potentially steal a spot in the field. If the Bears can beat Samford and finish with a record of 8-3, the Bears should receive an at-large bid. The Samford game will be a tough test and the Bears will need another big game out of Ty James to secure their first-ever playoff appearance.
Southland
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Nicholls State, Incarnate Word
Nicholls State pulled off a massive upset win over Incarnate Word last weekend and now controls their own destiny for the Southland championship. The Colonels may only be 5-4, but are 5-0 in conference play. Nicholls only needs a win over Lamar this weekend to punch their ticket to the FCS playoffs.
Incarnate Word will need to earn an at-large bid if Nicholls State wins this weekend. Overall record and team statistics might suggest that the Cardinals do deserve an at-large bid. Assuming Incarnate Word beats Houston Christian, the Cardinals would finish 7-1 against FCS competition. Incarnate Word’s total offense and total defense numbers are amazing. UIW is ranked No. 8 in Total Offense and No. 5 in Total Defense (yards per play). The only other team in the nation that is top ten in offense and defense is South Dakota State. This team does have two main problems: strength of schedule and no signature wins. Incarnate Word has the No. 81 strength of schedule and the Cardinals have not beaten teams in impressive fashion. The reason for this is Incarnate Word ranks No. 102 in the nation with 18 turnovers. If Nicholls does earn the auto-bid, it will be interesting to see what the committee does with Incarnate Word.
UAC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Austin Peay, Central Arkansas, Eastern Kentucky
Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky played in a thrilling overtime game in Week 10 that Austin Peay won 33-30 and with the win helped the Governors take control of the UAC title race. Austin Peay is now the only undefeated team in conference play and would lock up the auto-bid with a Week 12 win over Central Arkansas. Central Arkansas still controls its own destiny and would win the UAC if the Bears can beat Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay in back-to-back weeks. Eastern Kentucky is on the outside looking in and would need to beat Central Arkansas this week and have Austin Peay lose to both Utah Tech and Central Arkansas.
Eastern Kentucky already has five losses and does not have a shot at an at-large bid and one of Central Arkansas’ wins came over a non-DI opponent. This means that if the Bears only win one of their two remaining games and are looking for an at-large bid, they would only have six Division I wins. This would not be enough for Central Arkansas to earn an at-large bid. If the Bears can win the final two games and earn the auto-bid, Austin Peay would be 8-3 with a quality win over Gardner-Webb. The Governors have the No. 24 strength of schedule, which would also help them when compared to other potential at-large teams.
***Tarleton State is not eligible for the 2023 FCS Playoffs because of the NCAA transition rule.
Note: North Carolina Central is projected to win the MEAC and would not be eligible for the FCS playoffs. If the Eagles lose one MEAC game and become eligible, North Carolina Central would enter the “Should be in” tier. Florida A&M clinched the SWAC East and a berth to the SWAC championship game, which eliminates the Rattlers from playoff consideration.
