FSU Basketball looks to end four-game slide on road against Dayton Flyers

Florida State is in the middle of a rough four-game losing streak, coming off an embarrassing loss to UMass in the Orange Bowl Classic over the weekend. The losses before that were understandable, excusable to an extent, even. But they have to turn things around soon. Even if this was supposed to be a foundational year, that never included a loss to UMass, a team they beat by 33 a year ago.

It won't get any easier in this matchup, as the 'Noles hit the road to play the Dayton Flyers, consistently one of the better mid-major teams year-in and year-out. That's no different this year, as they've already knocked off Marquette and Georgetown, and their three losses are all to power conference programs. What kind of chance will Florida State have to end its losing streak?

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on the CBS Network from the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

Nov 28, 2025; Kissimmee, FL, USA; Dayton Flyers head coach Anthony Grant reacts after a call against the Brigham Young University Cougars in the first half during the ESPN Events Invitational at State Farm Field House. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Dayton Flyers Breakdown (8-3 Overall)

Dayton is now in Year 9 under head coach Anthony Grant, who led them to the NCAA Tournament 2024, and they likely would've been a 1 seed in the 2020 NCAA Tournament had it not been canceled. These two programs can both gripe that they had great Final Four chances taken away from them that year.

This is consistently one of the toughest mid-majors to go against, and it's only going to be tougher on the road.

Dayton's three losses are all against power conference teams: Cincinnati, Virginia, and BYU, and they were all able to hang in with all of them, losing those three games by a combined 24 points. Really, the BYU and Cincinnati games were close, while Virginia ran away with the game in the second half. But they have also picked up wins over Marquette and Georgetown. They're capable of playing with these kinds of teams on any given night.

Leading the way for them is Florida native De'Shayne Montgomery, who is averaging 16.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 2.7 APG, as well as a RIDICULOUS 2.7 SPG. He's top 50 nationally in forced steal rate, so FSU needs to keep an eye out for that. He's also shooting a blistering 44.9% from three on 4.5 attempts per game. He was at Georgia last year and couldn't really crack the rotations after a strong first year at Mount Saint Mary's.

Javon Bennett, who only stands at 5'11", is second in scoring at 15.6 PPG and 3.2 APG. He's another Florida native who may want to prove something against his home state team.

7-footer Amael L'Etang is their final scorer who is averaging double figures, with 12.5 PPG and 6.9 RPG. We saw the bigs of UMass give Florida State a lot of issues on Saturday, and they may have their hands full here.

Their other starters, Keonte Jones and Jordan Derkack, are steal machines, each averaging well over a steal per game (Jones is averaging 2.0 per game), and Jones gives them some extra rebounding. Dayton's bench players aren't huge threats to score, as once you get past Jones, no one is taking even more than 5 shot attempts per game.

What Dayton does exceptionally well is force turnovers. Their forced turnover rate of 24.2% is second-best nationally. They also get to the free-throw line at a really high rate, having the 26th-highest free-throw rate at 46.2%. Those are two areas of the game where they could really take advantage of FSU.

But the one area where Florida State could take advantage is Dayton's three-point defense. They're allowing teams to shoot 38.6% from three, one of the worst marks in the country. 36.5% of their opponent's points come from three, which is again one of the higher marks. FSU has been really inconsistent from three lately, so this may be a good chance to bounce back.

Dec 5, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Luke Loucks talks with guard Cam Miles (2) during the first half against the Houston Cougars at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (5-5 Overall)

While some of the past losses had a surprising point differential, it wasn't a surprise that they lost to teams like Texas A&M and Georgia. Losing to UMass is a bad look, and Luke Loucks called them out for it after the game. They've had a poor defensive effort in three of the last four games, which isn't the precedent you want to set before reaching ACC play.

This is the last test before ACC play starts for the Seminoles. After this, it's two games against bottom feeders, Mississippi Valley State and Jacksonville, before going to play UNC. They wanted to challenge themselves before conference play started, and they've done more than challenge. The worry might be that they've deflated so much after these losses that they may not recover to be competitive in ACC play.

But effort is downright concerning at this point. They're overpursuing to create turnovers on the perimeter, then when they don't get the turnovers, they're loafing on the back end to recover, and that's leaving people open. They're not rebounding well. They're not defending the interior well at all. Maybe they're tired, but that doesn't excuse some of the free drives to the rim they've given up in these last few games.

And a lot of defense really is just effort these days. Everyone has their schemes, and FSU certainly has a few different looks that they can throw at people, but they have to show the effort to actually execute it.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Martin Somerville
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alier Maluk

Dayton

G: Javon Bennett
G: De'Shayne Montgomery
G: Jordan Derkack
F: Keonte Jones
F: Amael L'Etang

3 Keys to the Game

The Threes Will Be There, Make Them

Dayton is one of the worst three-point defenses in the country, allowing teams to shoot 38.6% from behind the arc, and it's on high volume. Five different teams have shot better than 42% from deep against them, including all three of their losses.

We already know Florida State is going to fire away from three, but they have to work for those open looks. If they just sit back, it'll be easier for Dayton to defend them, but they should be able to work for easy looks.

Close Possessions With Defensive Rebounds

Dayton is a bad offensive rebounding team, bringing in just 27.4% of their misses. But when they get those extra possessions, it goes a long way toward success. They've been below a 22% offensive rebound rate in all but one of their games against power conference opponents, and they've lost three of those games.

FSU has been a poor defensive rebounding team, so it's bad on bad. If there's any game that they need to establish themselves on the glass, it has to be this one, because there's a chance for them to steal this game if they do. Players like Alier Maluk and Alex Steen are going to have to play much better.

Pick Up The Pace While Taking Care of the Basketball

Dayton wants to play around 69-70 possessions per game, but they really don't want to be faster than that. Their three losses have had 81, 75, and 74 possessions. Their two overtime games finished at 76 and 80 possessions. FSU wants to play fast, and they should be able to make this a 76 or 77 possession game.

However, they have to take care of the basketball. Dayton forces a turnover rate of 24.2%, which is actually just ahead of FSU. And Florida State has turned it over at a rate higher than 20% on offense in three of the last five games. They have good enough guard play for this not to be as much of a problem as it's been.

Game Prediction

Dayton opened as the favorites by 6.5 points with an over/under of 164.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

While there are some things that point to FSU possibly having success in this game, I don't have a lot of faith in them going on the road and winning. Not yet. The defensive effort in the last weeks is becoming the norm, and until they get that corrected, it's going to be tough to predict them to win games against good teams. Dayton should get the win here.

Dayton 85, Florida State 82

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