FSU Basketball still seeking first ACC win with Wake Forest up next

Florida State is now 0-4 in ACC play, its worst start to a conference schedule since Leonard Hamilton's first season as head coach, when they were also 0-4. A loss today would be FSU's worst start to ACC play since the 2000-2001 season, when Steve Robinson's squad started 0-7. Let's hope it doesn't reach that point.

To avoid going 0-5, they'll have to beat Wake Forest. They're also struggling out of the gate to ACC play, and both teams could desperately use this win.

This game will be at 6 p.m. EST on ESPN2 from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Jan 7, 2026; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons head coach Steve Forbes during the second half against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Breakdown (10-7 Overall, 1-3 ACC)

Wake Forest is in its sixth year under Steve Forbes, who has yet to make an NCAA Tournament in his time in Winston-Salem. He's had good teams, but they haven't been able to get over that hurdle. Based on how they've started ACC play, this won't be the year either.

The Deacs don't have any bad losses, per se, as they've also had a difficult start to ACC play, but they also don't have many, if any, redeeming wins. The only loss you can really wonder what happened is when they lost by 18 at home to Oklahoma, but that came down to their frontcourt just not showing up. Their best win is either against Virginia Tech or West Virginia, but those aren't that impressive. Better wins than FSU has, though, for sure.

Juke Harris is leading the way, and he's taken an insane jump this year. He averaged just 6.1 PPG in 19 MPG last year and has vaulted to 20.4 PPG in 31.9 MPG. He has great size for a wing at 6'7", and can really score when getting downhill. Harris is capable as a shooter, but they have this weird thing where they win more when he shoots poorly from three. He's also disruptive on defense, averaging 1.5 SPG.

Myles Colvin has come in from Purdue and been productive. He mostly came off the bench at the beginning of the season, but has made a big impact since being named a starter, averaging 15 PPG in his first seven games starting. However, his eighth game as a starter was a rough one, as he put up a goose egg in a three-point loss to UNC this week. He'll be looking to bounce back from that.

Tre'Von Spillers has taken a step back as a rebounder from last season, but has been a little better as a scorer. That's because he's not taking as many threes and is recognizing himself as the smaller low-post guy that he is.

Nate Calmese is their last player who is averaging double figures, putting up 10.8 PPG, and he's their best shooter by percentage at 43.8%. However, I'm still not convinced he's that level of shooter when he shot below 30% each of the last two seasons at Washington State. He's a great playmaker, though, averaging 5.2 APG.

No one else on this roster really moves me. Omaha Biliew is officially a five-star bust for me, but he still starts most of the games. Mekhi Mason's shooting has fallen off from his time at Washington. And they don't really rely on anyone else on this roster.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (7-10 Overall, 0-4 ACC)

Tuesday's loss to Syracuse was a tough one. Syracuse was the much more talented (and expensive) team, but FSU had a real chance to win it. A few things cost them, and it started on defense. Syracuse ended up shooting 59.7% from the floor and 40.7% from three. You wanted Syracuse shooting threes, but you still have to find a man in transition.

Tyler Betsey, coming off the bench and going 6/8, obviously didn't help, considering everyone else went 5/19. But they also didn't do a good job of keeping Donnie Freeman out of the middle. Florida State's defense just isn't good, and that's something that isn't going to change. They don't have the right personnel for it.

Kobe MaGee has been playing really well recently, but he's listed as questionable for this game according to the official ACC injury report. MaGee went through a real lull in the middle of non-conference play from deep, but he's shooting 37.7% from deep over his last 8 games, seeming to find the confidence we saw from him at Drexel last year.

As always, this team runs through Robert McCray V. If he's playing well, generally, the team is playing well. He didn't have a great game on Tuesday, and that's one of the reasons FSU lost. Get him playing at a high level again, and they'll have a chance against an iffy Wake Forest team.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Martin Somerville
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Wake Forest

G: Nate Calmese
G: Myles Colvin
F: Juke Harris
F: Omaha Biliew
F: Tre'Von Spillers

3 Keys to the Game

Contend on the Glass

Wake Forest isn't an amazing rebounding team, but neither is Florida State, and there's a pretty hard cutoff for beating Wake Forest. In games where they have an offensive rebound rate of less than 33.3%, the Deacs are 2-6, and one of those wins was a three-point victory over 10-9 Longwood.

On the flip side, if their opposition comes down with an offensive rebound rate of at least 28%, they are also 2-6 in those games. FSU has to come ready to go on the glass.

Take Care of the Basketball

Turnovers in the second half cost Florida State against Syracuse earlier in the week. Hopefully, they take much better care of the basketball. When Wake Forest forces a turnover rate of less than 21%, they're 4-7. Expect both teams to be gambling for steals.

Make Your Threes

Florida State shot well enough to beat Syracuse on Tuesday, but this is going to be a key in every single game. If they're going to win games, it's going to come from behind the three-point line. If FSU shoots 13/30, they'll have a chance. If they shoot 6/30, it could get ugly.

Game Prediction

Wake Forest is favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 168.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I'm calling my shot again. I think Florida State gets on the board here. They're going to have their hands full with Juke Harris, but I think they can limit everyone else just enough to come away with a win here. The shooting has to carry over from Tuesday's game against Syracuse, but I think they're going to be hungry to get a win here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Florida State 87, Wake Forest 85

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